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Firmer oil prices expected as need develops and supply curbs persist

Oil prices will gain some momentum this year as need gets and output curbs by the OPEC+. manufacturer group continue to squeeze supply that is already being. pressured by military disputes, a survey revealed on. Thursday.

A survey of 46 analysts and economists anticipate that Brent. crude would average $82.33 a barrel in 2024, up from the. $ 81.13 consensus forecast in February. U.S. crude. expectations were raised to $78.09, up from the $76.54 projection. last month.

This was the first upward revision in 2024 consensus. projections because the October survey.

We see the oil price rally going even more until the summer. months, said Florian Grunberger, senior expert at data and. analytics firm Kpler. This is due to the geopolitical threat. premium and the interests of OPEC+ members, combined with. increasing need in China.

Oil costs have included more than 12% in the quarter so far,. sustained by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, Houthi. attacks on Red Sea shipping and current Ukrainian drone attacks. on Russian refineries.

On the need side, the total agreement was approximately in. line with the 1.3 million barrel per day (bpd) rise for 2024. projected by the International Energy Agency.

The IEA's forecast was far less bullish than that of OPEC,. which anticipates demand development at 2.25 million bpd this year and. stated the 2024 and 2025 development trajectories of India, China and. the United States could go beyond present expectations.

Traders have now completely taken in the ramifications of the. OPEC+ supply cut extensions at a time when demand is proving. more robust than expected, stated Matthew Sherwood, lead. products analyst at the Economic expert Intelligence Unit.

OPEC+ members led by Saudi Arabia and Russia are not likely to. make any oil output policy changes until a full ministerial. gathering in June, three OPEC+ sources informed .

Persuading OPEC+ members to under-produce as a group to. preserve oil costs above a particular level is not going to be. easy, said Suvro Sarkar, energy sector group lead at DBS Bank,. indicating increasing surplus capacity and the loss of OPEC+ market. share to non-OPEC+ producers such as the United States.

(source: Reuters)