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OPEC+ agrees to increase oil production from October in order to gain market share
OPEC+ agreed to increase oil production in October, as Saudi Arabia tries to regain its market share. However, the pace will be slower than previous months because of an expected weakening of demand worldwide. OPEC+ increased production in April, after years of cutting to support the oil markets. But the decision on Sunday to boost output further came as a shock amid a possible looming oil surplus during the winter months in the Northern Hemisphere. In a Sunday online meeting, eight members of OPEC+ decided to increase production by 137,000 barrels a day from October, according to OPEC+. This is a much smaller increase than the monthly increases that were about 555,000 bpd between September and August, and 411,000 bpd between July and June. Eight members of OPEC+ have begun unwinding a second tranche, which amounts to about 1,65 million bpd. This is more than a calendar year ahead of schedule. The group has already unwound its first tranche of 2,5 million bpd, which is equivalent to 2.4 percent of the global demand. The barrels are small but they send a powerful message, said Jorge Leon, an analyst at Rystad who is a former OPEC representative. The increase in barrels is not about volume but more about signalling – OPEC+ wants to gain market share, even if that means softer prices. Leon says that OPEC+ (made up of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, Russia, and other allies) found it easy when the demand grew in the summer. But the real test comes in the fourth quarter, with the expected slowing of demand. OPEC+ stated that it had the option to increase, pause, or reverse increases at future meetings. The next meeting between the eight countries is scheduled for October 5. NEW CAPACITY Saudi Arabia's efforts to punish overproducing members like Kazakhstan and the United Arab Emirates for building new capacity have also contributed to the increase in OPEC output this year. In an effort to fulfill his promise made during the election to lower domestic gasoline prices, Donald Trump pressured the group earlier this year to increase production. As a result of the increased production, oil prices have fallen by around 15% this year. This has pushed oil company profits to their lowest level since the pandemic. The oil price has not fallen, but is still trading around $65 per barrel. This is due to the sanctions imposed by the West on Russia and Iran. This has encouraged OPEC+ producers to increase their output. OPEC+ has not met its pledged increases because the majority of members are operating at near-capacity. Analysts and data show that only Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates can add more barrels to the market. OPEC+ already had two levels of cuts in place before the Sunday agreement - the 1,65 million bpd reduction by the eight member countries, and a second 2 million bpd reduction by the entire group until 2026. (Additional reporting from Olesya Astakhova and Maha el Dhan; editing by Nick Zieminski, David Holmes and David Holmes).
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Stellantis CEO asks EU to support the car sector
In order to protect the automotive industry, the new CEO of Stellantis, a carmaker in Greece, has called on the European Union (EU) to be flexible when it comes to the transition to electric cars. "A strategic dialog is important, but it's now vital to act urgently." Antonio Filosa became CEO of Stellantis in June. On September 12, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will host executives from the automotive industry to discuss the future. The sector is under threat due to the Chinese competition with electric vehicles, and U.S. Tariffs. Filosa is the head of Fiat, Alfa Romeo and Peugeot brands. Chrysler, Jeep and Opel are also part of the group. Filosa has called on the European Commission (EC) to encourage the sale of hybrid cars to reduce the average age of the vehicles on the roads. In a joint interview, he told Italy's Il Sole 24 Ore as well as France's Les Echos that a European policy encouraging the replacement of older vehicles with new ones and a wider range of powertrains could have a greater effect on global CO2 emission than an annual new car market. Filosa stated that the Light Commercial Vehicles sector is facing an urgent situation and suggested that the CO2 emission period for this category should be increased to five years, from three. As he reviewed the brand portfolio, he also tried to dispel speculation that Stellantis might seek a buyer of Maserati. He said: "I would like to be clear that Maserati was not for sale. We need to know which products we should develop and what long-term strategies to adopt for our iconic brand."
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Daniel Craig reprises his role as Benoit Blanc, the detective in "Wake Up Dead Man: a Knives Out Mystery"
In "Wake Up Dead Man, A Knives Out Mystery", the third installment of the franchise, Daniel Craig's charismatic and sharply dressed Benoit Blanc is back to solve yet another murder case. It's dark, big and fun. The latest installment of the Whodunit genre from writer-director Rian Johnston takes place in a small town church in Upstate New York, with a more grounded tone. Johnson said on the red carpet before the Toronto International Film Festival premiere that they were trying to "do something different every time". "The first was a cozy mystery. The second was a broad, kind of vacation comedy mystery. "This one has a darker tone and is more gothic, but it's still fun," said he. Craig couldn't be more in agreement. "It is a departure. It's an entirely different movie. "But it's still Benoit blanc mystery", the former James Bond actor said. The ensemble cast includes Josh O'Connor (left), Glenn Close (right), Josh Brolin (center), Mila Kunis (right), Jeremy Renner and Kerry Washington. Also included are Andrew Scott, Cailee Spaeny, Daryl McCormack, Thomas Haden Church, and Andrew Scott. O'Connor was awash with praise for Johnson who he called his "idol". He said that Johnson was a "genius writer and director". The young British actor who played Prince Charles on the TV show "The Crown" received the most applause for his performance of a young priest following the premiere. Spaeny said that she was grateful to have the chance to play a cellist and enjoyed every moment on the set. The American actress, who learned the cello in preparation for her part, stars in her first comedy. She said, "It felt like we weren't being paid for this work." Craig also praised the cast for their "bubbly" nature. He said, "We have been extremely lucky in the entire series. We nailed it once again." The film will be released in limited theaters on November 26, before being streamed on Netflix starting December 12. (Reporting from Bhargav Asharya in Toronto, Editing by Caroline Stauffer & William Mallard
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China's central banks buys gold for the 10th consecutive month in August
China's central banks added gold to their reserves in August, continuing purchases for a 10th consecutive month, according to official data released on Sunday. Gold, traditionally viewed as a safe asset in times of uncertainty, is up 35% on the year. It reached a record-high last week amid strong demand for investments and purchases from central banks, including those in China. China's gold reserves increased to 74.02 millions fine troy-ounces by the end August from 73.96 at the end July. According to the data released by the Central Bank, they were valued at 253.84 billion dollars, an increase from $243.99 at the end the previous month. The People's Bank of China, which is the head of research for online marketplace BullionVault, said that while China's gold purchasing has slowed down in 2025, it has increased its bullion reserve at prices ever higher. Beijing's continued accumulation of gold is a signal that it has faith in the metal as a reserve for long-term. This also boosts the confidence of China's investors and private households in gold. The demand for gold was low in the world's biggest producer and consumer this week due to the high price. Dealers offered discounts above the global benchmark, to lure buyers. (Reporting from Amy Lv and Polina Devitt in London for the Beijing Newsroom. Editing by Clarence Fernandez.)
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After a four-day search, a Canadian soldier is found dead in Latvia
The Canadian military announced on Saturday that a member of the Canadian Armed Forces who was reported missing earlier this week in Latvia has been found deceased. The body of Warrant Officer George Hohl was discovered on Friday, after he disappeared on Tuesday, in the Baltic country where Canada has troops stationed as part a multinational brigade. Hohl worked as a Vehicle Technologist for the 408 Tactical Helicopter Squadron, based in Edmonton (Alberta). He was serving with the Aviation Battalion of NATO's Multinational Brigade - Latvia when he disappeared near the Adazi base. The Canadian Forces Military Police is assisting Latvian authorities to investigate the circumstances surrounding Hohl’s death. Officials have stated that "there are no indications this incident poses a greater threat to the safety and security of our deployed members." Jennie Carignan, Chief of Defence Staff and General Jennie Carignan, said that the loss was devastating to the entire Canadian Armed Forces. She added that Hohl will be remembered for his dedication. The warrant officer has served in multiple deployments, including disaster relief operations at home and tours with Operation REASSURANCE (Canada's contribution to NATO’s enhanced forward presence established after Russia's 2014 annexation Crimea). Operation REASSURANCE is a rotation of approximately 2,200 Canadians in the Baltic State. According to a statement from the Canadian military, an investigation is underway into Hohl’s death. (Reporting and editing by Nick Zieminski in Washington)
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Ukraine drones hit training centre at Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant, Russian management says
The Russian-installed management of the Russia-held nuclear plant in Ukraine announced on Saturday that Ukrainian drones had hit the roof at the Zaporizhzhia training centre. There was no damage to the building and there was no radiation increase. In a Telegram message, the administration stated that the strike took place about 300 meters (984 feet) away from a nuclear reactor. The statement stated that "This centre is unique - it houses the only full scale simulator of a nuclear reactor hall in the world, which is crucial for staff training." Although the station is Europe's largest nuclear power plant, with six reactors and no power, it still needs power to keep nuclear fuel cool. Administration officials said that the attack did not disrupt the operation of the plant. The administration stated that "operational safety limits have not been violated, and radiation levels are normal." Ukraine has not yet responded. We could not independently confirm the Russian report. In the early weeks of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Russian forces captured the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant. Both sides accuse the other of triggering a nuclear disaster by firing weapons or other actions. Reporting by Lidia Kelley in Melbourne
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Sources say that OPEC+ is likely to agree on a further increase in oil production on Sunday.
OPEC+ sources stated on Saturday that eight OPEC+ nations will likely increase oil production on Sunday, but they may add less oil in October than recent months due to the slowdown of global demand with the end driving season. OPEC+ reversed its April strategy of production cuts and has already increased quotas to about 2,4 million barrels a day (about 2.4% of the world's demand) to increase market share. This is in response to pressure from U.S. president Donald Trump, who wants to lower oil prices. These increases, however, have not had a significant impact on oil prices. They are currently trading at $66 per barrel, supported by Western sanctions against Russia and Iran. This encourages rivals like the United States to increase production. OPEC+ would start to unravel a second layer, averaging about 1.65 millions bpd. This would be more than a full year ahead of schedule. Two sources told me on Saturday that the focus of talks is to gradually unwind this entire cut, in monthly increments. On Sunday, 1230 GMT eight OPEC+ member countries will hold a virtual meeting. The focus of the discussion is likely to be October's output. An OPEC+ official said that the countries could increase their output by 135,000 bpd in October. Another said it might be closer to 200,000-350,000 bpd. The eight members increased production for September by 547,000 bpd at their last August meeting, giving a total of 2.5 million bpd increase for the entire year. This included an additional 300,000 bpd production allocation for the UAE. OPEC's headquarters and Saudi Arabian authorities did not respond to Wednesday's requests for comments. OPEC+ is the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries plus Russia, and other allies. Brent crude futures closed at $65.50 a bar on Friday, down by 2.2%. This was due to a disappointing U.S. employment report and the expectation of a production increase from OPEC+. It is still up since a low in 2025 of around $58 per barrel in April. Analysts have stated that sanctions and the fact that OPEC+ has not met its pledged amount have supported prices. OPEC+ has been reducing production to support the oil price for several years. The group has committed to a further 2 million bpd in cuts until 2026. (Reporting and editing by Alexandra Hudson, Olesya Almakhova, Alex Lawler Ahmad Ghaddar, Dmitry Zhdannikov)
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Gunmen kill Chinese security officials and Chinese workers in Nigeria
A spokesperson for the Nigerian security agency confirmed that gunmen kidnapped Chinese exatriate workers and killed eight officials in the southern state of Edo. The Chinese workers were rescued later, the spokesperson added. On Friday, a group suspected of being armed kidnappers attacked a convoy consisting of paramilitary Nigeria Security and Civil Defence Corps members and Chinese nationals who worked for BUA Cement. Afolabi Babawale, spokesperson for the NSCDC, said that four Chinese workers kidnapped by terrorists were rescued. However, one is still missing. He added that eight operatives of the agency had been killed and four others were injured seriously. Nigeria has seen a rise in gunman attacks, mainly in the north, but kidnapping groups are known to target civilians in the south.
Europe gets lucky with a moderate, windy winter season: Kemp
With just a couple of more weeks left in the heating season, Europe is on course to end the winter with a record quantity of gas in storage, sending out prices sliding and resolving worries about energy security.
Before policymakers congratulate themselves on successfully managing the crisis triggered by Russia's invasion of Ukraine, they must acknowledge they have been exceptionally lucky with the weather condition.
Back-to-back moderate winter seasons in 2022/23 and again in 2023/24 have minimized heating need for both gas and electrical energy and enabled the region to generate record gas stocks.
The most recent winter has been primarily mild, wet and windy throughout Northwest Europe, slashing heating demand while triggering a rise in wind farm generation, a double conserving on gas.
Chartbook: Europe's weather and gas stocks
There have actually been fairly couple of episodes of dunkelflaute,. the German word explaining cloudy, windless and very cold. weather condition, which zero-out solar and wind generation, forcing the. grid to rely on gas to keep satisfy need.
There is no warranty the area's luck will last; next. winter could be significantly chillier with less wind generation,. resulting in a double dive in gas consumption.
The more comprehensive issue is that increasing reliance on variable. wind and solar, driven by medium and brief term weather. patterns, is inducing increased variability in winter season need for. gas and gas-fired generation.
During the winter season of 2023/24, wind considerably lowered. stress on the electricity and gas products-- but it might simply. quickly contribute to the stress on both systems in future.
NAO FORECASTING
The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is the single most. important element for year to year changes in the seasonal. climate around the Atlantic Basin, according to scientists at. the Hadley Centre in Britain. ¹ Irregularity in the NAO describes the state of the Atlantic. jet stream and is straight related to near-surface winds and. Winter season temperature levels ... across North America, Europe, and. other areas around the Atlantic Basin.
At its most basic, the NAO explains the state of the. atmospheric pressure differential in between Greenland-Iceland. ( generally a location of relatively low pressure) and the. Azores-Bermuda (usually a location of high pressure).
When the pressure difference is greater than average, the. NAO is said to be favorable, and strong westerly winds are. directed across Northwest Europe, bringing great deals of warm, wet. air from across the ocean.
When the pressure distinction is below average, the NAO is. stated to be unfavorable, and westerly winds are directed across. Southern Europe, while Northwest Europe experiences less windy. and drier conditions. ² The NAO is a lot more variable and unstable in the short and. medium term than the more familiar El Niño -La Niña cycle in the. Pacific.
In recent years, however, researchers have actually made development in. successfully forecasting the NAO for several months ahead, which. is the basis for seasonal winter season weather forecasts.
The NAO can be forecast based upon the state of El Niño -La . Niña, the level of ice cover in the Kara Sea location of the Arctic. Ocean and a number of other variables.
It is now possible to anticipate the course of NAO and average. winter season weather with some success as early as November, according. to the U.K. Meteorological Office.
WINDY and mild
The NAO was incredibly favorable in December 2023, and to. lower extent in February 2024, directing lots of warm damp. westerly winds across Northwest Europe in both months.
In Frankfurt in Germany, temperature levels were well above the. long-term seasonal average in December (+2.8 ° C )and again in. February (+5.8 ° C), which dramatically minimized heating demand.
In London, temperature levels were likewise well above average in. December (+2.3 ° C )and February (+3.3 ° C), cutting the need for. both gas-fired main heating and gas-fired electrical heating.
At the exact same time, wind speeds throughout Northwest Europe were. faster than typical, improving generation from onshore and. offshore wind farms.
Increases in wind farm capability and greater average wind. speeds combined to create a rise in wind generation.
Germany's wind generation soared to 19.5 terawatt-hours. ( TWh) in December 2023 from 12.2 TWh in December 2022.
Britain's wind generation reached 9.7 TWh in December. 2023 from 7.4 TWh in the very same month a year previously.
In Germany, the boost in wind output (+7.3 TWh) primarily. lowered generation from coal (-5.1 TWh) and gas (-1.0 billion. TWh).
In the UK, increased wind output (+2.3 TWh). primarily reduced generation from gas (-3.0 TWh).
CONSERVING GAS
The result has been a much smaller sized exhaustion of gas. stocks than normal considering that the start of winter season 2023/24, with. When the NAO, the impact focused in December and February. was highly favorable.
Stocks across the European Union and the United Kingdom. diminished by an average of simply 3.2 TWh per day in December. compared with an average of 4.1 TWh per day over the previous. ten years.
The depletion was the tiniest because December 2019 and. before that December 2015, both of which were characterised by a. strongly favorable NAO.
Stocks diminished by an average of 3.0 TWh per day in. February 2024, compared with a previous ten-year seasonal average. of 4.8 TWh, and the slowest considering that February 2014.
As a result, stocks were 279 TWh (+67% or +2.16 standard. discrepancies) above the prior ten-year seasonal average on March. 10.
The surplus had actually swelled from 167 TWh (+18% or +1.70 requirement. discrepancies) at the start of the winter heating season on October. 1.
Most of the increases took place in December (+29 TWh) and. February (+57 TWh), with a smaller increase in November (+19 TWh),. and the surplus really tightened somewhat in January (-8 TWh).
POLICY LESSONS
Luck with the winter in 2022/23 and again in 2023/24 has. played the most significant role improving gas supply security in Europe,. and was most likely more crucial than policy measures to promote. gas conservation.
Two moderate winter seasons have actually enhanced stocks to a record seasonal. high and pushed prices back to levels dominating before 2021. once inflation is taken into consideration.
Europe's leaders would be ill-advised to rely on being fortunate. a third time. Policymakers and energy market need to consider how. they would cope if next winter was characterised by a. predominantly negative NAO, greater heating need and less wind. generation.
Recommendations:
¹ The North Atlantic Oscillation (U.K. Meteorological. Workplace)
² Experienced Long-Range Forecast of European and North. America Winters (Scaife et al, 2014)
Associated columns:
- Europe's mild winter season leaves gas stocks at record high. ( March 7, 2024)
- Europe's swollen gas stocks drive rates lower (February. 13, 2024)
John Kemp is a market analyst. The views revealed. are his own. Follow his commentary on X https://twitter.com/JKempEnergy.
(source: Reuters)