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Japan's inflation beats projections, end of unfavorable rates in sight

Japan's core customer inflation slowed for a 3rd straight month in January but beat projections and held at the reserve bank's 2% target, keeping alive expectations it will end negative rate of interest by April.

The 2.0% gain in the core customer prices index (CPI) was slower than the 2.3% increase in December, internal affairs and communications ministry data showed on Tuesday, underscoring views waning cost-push inflation from commodity imports could relieve the pain of higher living costs.

The gain beat mean market forecasts for a 1.8%. increase, declaring expectations hefty pay hikes will be used. by huge companies at labour-management wage talks on March 13 that. would lead the way for the Bank of Japan (BOJ) to end unfavorable. rates of interest in March or April.

The January CPI exposes the possibility of the BOJ. If preliminary, treking its policy rate at the March conference. Shunto results due a couple of days before the conference are. motivating, stated Marcel Thieliant at Capital Economics,. describing Japanese name for the wage talks.

We still think about an April trek more likely, Thieliant. included. For something, inflation will leap well above 2% in. February as base impacts from the launch of energy subsidies a. year ago begin, which would allow the Bank to tell a more. compelling story that inflation stays strong, he added.

Japan's core consumer price index consists of oil products but. leaves out fresh food prices.

The slowdown was due in part to a big drop in energy costs,. showing the base result of last year's sharp rise and. federal government subsidies to suppress gasoline and energy bills, in a. indication of waning cost-push pressure that had kept core inflation. at or above the BOJ's 2% target considering that April 2022.

Going forward, the key is whether wage hikes beat inflation. enough to provide households acquiring power, so business can. continue to pass on costs and keep inflation durably at the. BOJ's 2% target, analysts state.

The so-called core core index that strips away both fresh. food and energy prices, carefully seen by the BOJ as a narrow. gauge of the wider rate trend, increased 3.5% year-on-year in. January, following a 3.7% increase in December.

As far as rates are worried, there's absolutely nothing in today's. data that would stop the BOJ's move towards ending unfavorable. rates, which I think will come in April, said Izuru Kato, chief. economist at Totan Research.

At the very same time, the BOJ needs to strike a balancing act. in view of 2 straight quarters of contraction in gross. domestic item (GDP) and lackluster personal usage, while. the weak yen have actually created stagflation-like situation, he added,. describing a combination of low development and high inflation.

(source: Reuters)