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Backwardation in US oil futures narrows to a 20-month low amid fears of a glut

The front-month U.S. Crude Oil Futures contract ended Monday's trading with the smallest premium over the seven-month contract since January 2024, as OPEC+ increases supply and seasonal refinery maintenance pressures the demand for immediate barrels. The market term for immediate delivery fetching a higher premium than later deliveries suggests that investors are losing money by selling their oil on the spot market, as the near-term supply appears to be abundant.

For the first time since January, U.S. crude oil futures would be in a contango if the spread reversed from a premium into a discount.

WTI crude futures settled for November delivery at $59.49 a barrel on Monday. The May 2026 contract settled for $59.02 a barrel, creating an additional 47 cents per barrel for the prompt barrels The narrowest since last January 16th.

Andrew Lipow, President of Lipow Oil Associates, said that the narrowing of the gap is indicative of an excess of supplies in the short term and then a concern about tightening of supplies when future demand increases.

Lipow said, "We're seeing an increase in supply from OPEC+. This, combined with reports that more oil is in floating storage, puts pressure on the curve at the front, along with seasonal refinery maintenance.

OPEC+ (the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries plus its allies) has increased their oil production targets this year by over 2.7 million barrels a day, which is equivalent to around 2.5% of the global demand. This has stoked supply glut concerns.

Shohruh Zhritdinov said that this is flattening WTI's curve, as the market now prices in less tightness for early 2026, according to a Dubai oil trader. According to the Energy Information Administration, the average U.S. refinery usage for a four-week period fell to 92.5%, its lowest level since the first half of June when the U.S. driving season began.

Zukhritdinov stated that "physical builds and refinery delays equate to a lower need to pay for prompt barrels." (Reporting and editing by David Gregorio in Houston, Georgina McCartney from Houston)

(source: Reuters)