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IEA: Low diversity of critical mineral markets can hurt the industry
The IEA warned in a Wednesday report that the concentration of the mineral market, especially in the refining, processing and export restrictions sectors, could lead to painful disruptions. In recent years, the use of critical mineral has increased due to energy transition projects, such as electric cars, battery storage, renewables, and grid networks. The industry has also consolidated into a few large players. Fatih Bibil, Executive Director of the IEA, said: "Even if a market is well-supplied, supply shocks can still be a problem, whether they are caused by extreme weather conditions, a failure in technology or trade disruptions." He said that a supply-shock can have a far-reaching impact, leading to higher prices for consumers as well as a reduction in industrial competitiveness. The IEA stated that the average share of top three suppliers will decline marginally to 82% by 2035, returning effectively to the levels of concentration seen in 2020. China, which is the dominant player in the industry, will continue to expand its refining capability at a faster rate than the rest the world until 2035. It has also added to the global battery recycling capacities by two thirds since 2020. The IEA stated that this high concentration of minerals increases the supply shock risk on the global market, particularly with the increasing number of export controls on critical mineral. The mining industry is also expected to follow a similar trend. Copper, nickel, and cobalt are likely to be less diverse, while lithium, graphite, and rare earths will see fewer concentrations. The IEA stated that the current copper mine project pipeline could lead to a 30% shortfall in supply by 2035, due to declining ore grade, increasing capital costs, limited resources discoveries, and long lead time. The rapidly increasing demand for lithium as part of the energy transformation is expected to push market deficits by 2030. However, the prospects for developing new projects are better than those for copper.
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Energy Minister: Turkey is in talks with Candu about nuclear plants
Alparslan Bayraktar, Turkish Energy Minister, said that Turkey has been in discussions with Candu Energy of Canada and other companies about plans to build Turkey's second and third nuclear plants. Bayraktar, who spoke to journalists during a trip to southeast Turkey Monday, said that Turkey wanted to "put names" on the projects it planned for this year. "Russia, South Korea, and China are all interested in the second or third power plant. He said that in addition to the countries and companies mentioned above, we were also in negotiations with other nations. Canada is one of them. "The Candu company," added he. Candu didn't immediately respond to an inquiry for comment. Rosatom, the Russian state-owned nuclear energy company is building Turkey's very first nuclear power plant at Akkuyu, in the Mediterranean province Mersin, under a 20 billion dollar agreement from 2010. The Turkish government plans to build two nuclear plants in the Black Sea region Sinop, and one in the northwestern region Thrace. (Reporting and writing by Nevzat Dvranoglu, Daren Butler, Jonathan Spicer, Christian Schmollinger).
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Reports that Israel could attack Iran cause supply concerns
The price of oil jumped by more than 1% after Israel was reported to be preparing an attack on Iranian nuclear facilities. This sparked fears that the conflict could disrupt supply in this key Middle East region. Brent futures rose by 97 cents or 1.5% to $66.35 per barrel at 0330 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude Futures for July rose 96 cents or 1.6% to $62.99. The WTI contract for June expired at $62.56 on Tuesday. CNN reported Tuesday that the United States has received new intelligence suggesting that Israel is planning to attack Iranian nuclear facilities. CNN cited multiple U.S. government officials who are familiar with the issue. CNN, citing officials, added that it was unclear whether Israeli leaders had made a decision. On Wednesday, ING commodities analysts said that such an escalation could put Iranian oil supply in danger. It would also be a threat to other parts of the region. An attack by Israel could disrupt the flow of oil from Iran, the third largest producer in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. Iran may also retaliate, blocking oil tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint in the Gulf through which Saudi Arabia Kuwait Iraq and United Arab Emirates export crude and fuel. This year, the U.S. has held multiple rounds of talks with Iran over its nuclear program. U.S. president Donald Trump is reviving his campaign to increase sanctions on Iranian crude oil exports in order to force them to abandon their nuclear ambitions. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the Iranian Supreme leader and U.S. officials made statements on Tuesday that both sides are still far from a solution. If successful, indirect nuclear talks are taking place between the U.S.A. and Iran. This could lead to further gains for the market. These talks seem to be losing steam, according to ING analysts. There were still some signs that crude supply was improving. Market sources cited American Petroleum Institute data on Tuesday to say that U.S. crude stockpiles rose last week, while gasoline and distillate stocks fell. Sources, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said that crude stocks in the U.S. - the world's largest oil consumer - rose by 2.5m barrels during the week ending May 16. Investors will be watching the Energy Information Administration's report on U.S. government oil stocks later this Wednesday. A source in the industry said that Kazakhstan's oil output has risen by 2% since May. This is a significant increase, which defies the pressure of OPEC+ to reduce Kazakhstan's production. (Reporting from Houston by Georgina McCartney and Jeslyn Lerh; Editing by Christian Schmollinger).
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Mubadala Energy is ready to sell South Andaman Gas to Indonesia at the right price
A senior executive at Mubadala Energy said that the company would be happy to provide all of the natural gas produced in its South Andaman Block for Indonesian domestic consumption, and do so at the best possible price. Indonesia wants producers of gas to increase their supplies to domestic consumers as the demand is increasing. The producers have been focusing on exports of LNG and asked the government to revise price caps for domestic gas. They argue that it is not a good business decision when spot LNG prices are so high. Abdulla Bu Ali (President Director of Mubadala Energy Indonesia) told reporters at the Indonesia Petroleum Association Conference that Mubadala Energy Indonesia was interested in both exports as well as selling to Indonesia. He said that domestic gas prices must be competitive, but declined to provide a specific figure. The United Arab Emirates explorer anticipates that gas production will begin at Tangkulo-1, in its South Andaman Block, in late 2028. It signed an initial contract to supply gas to the state fertiliser manufacturer Pupuk Indonesia on Tuesday. Indonesia sets domestic gas prices at $6.50 to $7 per million British thermal unit (mmBtu) for certain industries and electricity plants. Spot LNG Prices in Asia Last week, mmBtu was $11.75 Reporting by Dewi Curniawati, Florence Tan and Edwina Gibbs; Writing by Florence Tan.
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Amazon fires drive unprecedented global forest loss in 2024, report says
According to a Wednesday report, massive fires caused by climate change will cause global forest losses to break records in 2024. The loss of tropical forests reached 6.7m hectares (16.6m acres), a spike of 80% compared to the year 2023. This is an area about the size of Panama. Brazil, which will host the next climate summit in November struggled to control fires in Amazon during the worst ever drought recorded in rainforest. Wildfires also devastated a number of countries including Bolivia and Canada. The World Resources Institute's annual report and the University of Maryland's study showed for the first time that fires were the primary cause of tropical forest losses, a sad milestone in a humid ecosystem which isn't supposed to burn. Matthew Hansen, co-director of the University of Maryland lab that compiled and analysed the data, said: "The signals are particularly scary." "The fear is the climate signal will overtake our capability to respond effectively." The report stated that Latin America was particularly affected, with the Amazon biome experiencing its highest loss of primary forests since 2016. Brazil, the country with the largest tropical forest share in the world, has lost the most land of any other country, 2.8 million hectares. This was a reverse of the progress that had been made when Luiz inacio Lula da So took office, promising to protect the largest rainforest on earth. "This was unprecedented. We have to adapt our policies to the new reality," said Andre Lima who oversees the deforestation-control policies of Brazil's Ministry of Environment. He added that fires, which were never the top cause of forest losses, are now a priority for the Brazilian government. Bolivia has overtaken the Democratic Republic of Congo, despite only having half as much forest as that African nation. That country also experienced a significant increase in forest losses last year. Bolivia's forest loss surged by 200% in 2024, with a drought, wildfires and a government-incentivized agricultural expansion as the leading causes. The report also noted similar trends across Latin America in Mexico, Peru Nicaragua and Guatemala. Deforestation rates were also increased by conflicts in Colombia and Democratic Republic of Congo, where armed groups depleted natural resources. Wildfires in Canada and Russia, both of which have a population of over 12 million acres, caused a record loss of trees in 2024. Southeast Asia defied the global trend, with Malaysia, Laos and Indonesia posting double-digit reductions in primary forests loss. This was due to the domestic conservation policies, coupled with the efforts of communities and the private sectors, which continued to effectively control fires and agricultural growth. Charagua Iyambae Indigenous Territory in southern Bolivia was another outlier. It was able, through land-use policy and early warning systems, to prevent the record fires that ravaged the country. Rod Taylor, global director for forests for the WRI, stated that he hopes to see progress made by countries in the introduction of better funding mechanisms for conservation as they descend on the Amazonian town of Belem, for the next Climate Summit. He said that "at the moment, there's more money in cutting down forests than keeping them up." (Reporting and editing by Manuela Andréoni, Alexander Villegas)
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Chevron Hires MMA Offshore’s PSV to Support Assets off Australia
MMA Offshore, a subsidiary of Cyan Renewables, has secured a multi-year contract from Chevron Australia for its platform supply vessel (PSV) MMA Plover.The vessel has been contracted to provide marine logistics support to Chevron’s Barrow Island and Wheatstone assets, located off the coast of Western Australia.The assets are producing natural gas for Western Australia and liquified natural gas (LNG) for the Asia Pacific region, and house one of the world’s largest Carbon Capture and Storage systems.The vessel will undergo an extensive modification program to enable the carriage of up to 90 TEU (20 ft-equivalent unit sea containers).“This contract reflects MMA’s capability to deliver a comprehensive, high-value solution that goes beyond the provision of a vessel, reinforcing the trust and confidence our valued clients place in us.“We are looking forward to supporting Chevron Australia through this long-term contract and to providing a superior service at their two world class gas projects, which have become pillars of energy security for Australia and the broader Asia Pacific region,” said Keng Lin Lee, Cyan Renewables Group CEO.
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Geoquip Marine Wraps Up Surveys for German Offshore Wind Projects
Geoquip Marine, a Njord Partners portfolio company, has completed a preliminary geotechnical site investigation for two 4 GW offshore wind projects.The investigation will support the developer in advancing the next phase of design for both project sites, located in the German sector of the North Sea.Under the contract, Geoquip drilled 28 boreholes across the project sites to analyze the subsea terrain for turbine foundations.It underwent thorough soil sampling and seismic site monitoring to inform the engineering parameters for both projects in depths of 40 meters.By deploying the Dina Polaris vessel, equipped with geotechnical drilling, sampling and testing equipment along with an offshore laboratory, Geoquip provided real-time seabed data, identifying challenging site conditions safely and efficiently.Germany has set ambitious offshore wind capacity targets of at least 30GW to be installed by 2030, and these projects will be vital in supporting the country in reaching its goal. The potential renewable power from both projects aims to integrate low-carbon, hydrogen, and biofuel production, supporting wider industry decarbonization in Germany.“Receiving this safety award is a testament to our commitment to delivering reliable data with safety at the heart of everything we do.“It reflects the precision and transparency we bring to every stage of our work, especially as we identify and mitigate complex site and seabed conditions to support the safe development of critical wind projects. Safety and reliability aren’t just priorities for us, they're the foundation of our approach, and we remain focused on setting the standard across the industry,” said Fatih Topal, Project Manager at Geoquip Marine.
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LME WEEK - Mercuria says copper shortages could push prices up to record levels
The head of metals research at Mercuria said that the trading house expects a 700,000-metric-ton copper concentrate deficit and a 300,000-metric ton deficit for refined metal this year, which could drive prices up to new records. Nicholas Snowdon, the high-profile bull of Mercuria in Geneva, expects copper prices to reach record levels sooner rather than later. Snowdon said at the LME Asia Week Conference in Hong Kong that the copper market is in a vulnerable state. It's not a matter of if but when this market will move into a scarcity state. This could happen as early as the second half this year. Snowdon cited supply disruptions and stagnant production at a period of resilient Chinese demand, even though vast volumes of copper were diverted to the United States to prepare for potential import tariffs. This week, analysts told that they expected large shipments to arrive. Copper to the U.S. The COMEX, based in the United States, is a market that makes it profitable for both traders and producers to make profits as long as tariffs are still a threat. On March 26, COMEX copper reached a new record of $11,633 per metric ton. Snowdon stated that 500,000 metric tonnes of copper will be shipped to the U.S. in the second quarter this year. UBS analyst Sharon Ding said at an event on February that she expected 450,000 to 500,000 tonnes of copper to ship to the U.S. during the period March-May, which is about 250,000 to 300,000 tons more than what would be normal. Last week, copper inventories In China, the number of withdrawals soared sharply. This ended a three-week streak of large withdrawals which had caused concerns about shortages due to the global supply being pulled towards the U.S.
Asia area LNG costs flat as ample inventories weigh
Asian spot liquefied gas ( LNG) was flat this week to trend at a near threeyear low as high stocks kept costs capped, though the depression in prices has brought in some spot need.
The typical LNG rate for April shipment into north-east Asia << LNG-AS > remained at $8.30 per million British thermal systems (mmBtu), its weakest level since mid-April 2021.
There are South Asian, Southeast Asian, and Chinese buyers in the area market, however their area purchases are not anticipated to put in substantial upward pressure on rates, stated Siamak Adibi, director for gas and LNG supply analytics at consultancy FGE.
PetroVietnam Gas had actually likewise issued a tender looking for 2 spot LNG cargoes, with the first to be delivered between April 1 and April 20. The shipment window of the second cargo has yet to be determined.
Although traders continue to eye price-sensitive demand around the $8/mmBtu cost level, the region is still amply supplied, said Samuel Good, head of LNG prices at commodity prices agency Argus.
Terminal inventories (are) mostly comprehended to still be high as northeast Asia looks beyond completion of winter and to the coming summer season with its normally strong summer season cooling power need, he stated.
Temperature forecasts for the turn of seasons throughout the region have actually been modified somewhat higher over the past week, which could limit late-season heating need and help to buoy terminal stocks even more, in turn restricting summer season stock builds.
In China, a research study arm of state energy giant China National Petroleum Corp (CNPC) had forecast the nation's. natural gas need to grow 6.1% to reach 415.7 billion cubic. metres (bcm) in 2024, with imports expected to account for 43.1%. of this.
LNG imports are seen growing 8.1% to 77.11 million heaps this. year, listed below 2021's record of 78.93 million lots, in spite of a. substantial increase in LNG port getting capacity over the. last year.
In Europe, S&P Global Commodity Insights examined its daily. North West Europe LNG Marker (NWM) cost criteria for freights. delivered in April on an ex-ship (DES) basis at $7.441/ mmBtu on. Feb. 29, or a $0.49/ mmBtu discount rate to the April gas rate at the. Dutch TTF center.
Argus evaluated the price at $7.450/ mmBtu, while Spark. Products examined it at $7.401/ mmBtu.
Europe gas rates saw some gains previously this week amidst an. boost to an unplanned outage at a Norwegian gas field, however. stocks in the region remain sufficient.
February has actually experienced mild temperatures in Europe,. contributing to greater gas stocks compared to 2023. This. pattern is expected to continue through the summer if we do not see. any significant supply outage, stated FGE's Adibi.
We don't see a demand trigger in Europe, given the shift to. milder weather and the continuous pattern of weak economic. efficiency. In reality, with steady non-Russian pipeline products,. Europe LNG demand is most likely to stay controlled.
Area LNG freight rates fell even more this week to. their lowest since June 2023, stated Glow Commodities analyst. Qasim Afghan.
Atlantic rates today were estimated at $47,750/ day on. Friday, while Pacific rates were at $53,500/ day.
(source: Reuters)