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Mapping the Market - Death Cross to Golden Cross for Global Oil Prices

The global oil price was teetering on the 'edge' of a bearish signal. However, it swerved?away from that and opened the door for a bullish signal.

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Brent crude is the international benchmark for oil. Since the beginning of hostilities in Iran at the end of last month, headlines have been dominated by the conflict. Prices were falling earlier this month as there was hope that the Strait of Hormuz would reopen. This decline, on top of a broader retreat since?April's high, has contributed to a decline in the 50 day moving average, which is now close to crossing the 200 day average. Technical analysts refer to this pattern as a "death-cross," usually viewed by them as a sign that the sellers are taking the lead.

This cross was never really achieved. Prices rose again as fresh doubts emerged about the ease of Iran tensions. Now the market is flirting?with the opposite signal: the 10-day moving average is positioning itself to possibly rise above the hundred-day average. This is often seen as an indication of further gains, though momentum is already fading.

These signals are lagging indicators, as they occur after large moves have been accounted for in the moving averages. However, once triggered, both can spark new buying or selling. If oil prices rise above the $94.83 high for this month, bullish momentum could be re-ignited towards July's peak price of $102 per barrel. If oil prices fall below the $85.41 low from last week, however, it could lead to $78.11 or even July's $70.14 low.

The chart below shows:

Prices rebounded and prices avoided the 50-day/200 day "death crossing"

The 10-day/100 day "golden Cross" is close, but losing momentum

Support? at $85.41, $78.11, $69.14

(source: Reuters)