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Oil prices rise as yields increase, oil stocks fall, and US and Iran resume their military strikes

On Monday, bond yields rose and stocks fell as oil prices surged with the return of military clashes in the United States. The resumption of military clashes between the?U.S. and Iran has added to concerns about 'inflation.

Donald Trump, the U.S. president was quoted as saying on Monday that he would "hit them hard". This came after Iran fired missiles at two U.S. bases in Jordan overnight in response to an attack by the U.S. on Iran's Larak island.

U.S. crude climbed 2.54% to $85.51 per barrel. Brent rose to $90.34 a barrel, up by 2.54% for the day.

This kept the possibility of future interest rate hikes by major central banks alive. Kevin Warsh, Federal Reserve Chairman's Friday speech in Jackson Hole, boosted betting on an interest rate hike by the Fed for September.

Fed funds futures trader now price in 64% odds for a rate hike in September, up from 35% prior to Warsh's comments on Friday. It is expected that the European Central Bank will raise rates at its meeting on September 9-10.

The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10 year Treasury note rose 3.8 basis points to 4.764%. This is the highest yield since January 15, 2025. Japan's 2-year Government Bond Yield rose to a?high of 31 years earlier, and German and French 2-year bonds yields also increased.

Wall Street saw the Dow Jones Industrial Average fall 356.59 points or?0.67% to 53,203.40. The S&P 500 fell 37.75 points or 0.49% to 7,674.22 while the Nasdaq Composite dropped 103.71 or 0.39% to 26,298.72.

Peter Cardillo is the chief market economist of Spartan Capital Securities, a New York-based brokerage.

He also said that the market was about to enter into September, which is "usually a tough month for stocks."

Trading volumes were low as London's markets were closed on a bank holiday. The pan-European STOXX 600 fell 0.6% to 651.1 points.

The MSCI index of global stocks fell by 5.01 points (0.43%) to 1,148.15.

The Fed will decide if it moves next month based on the August U.S. payrolls data and consumer prices due September 11.

The economists predict that payrolls will increase by 58,000 following July's shocking decline of 23,000 and unemployment will remain at 4.1%. To reduce the expectation of a rate increase in September, a significantly worse outcome is likely to be required.

As traders awaited jobs data, the dollar fell.

The dollar index, which measures greenbacks against a basket including the yen, the euro and other currencies, dropped 0.21% to 99.43. At $1.1614, the euro rose 0.26%. The dollar fell 0.21% against the Japanese yen to 159.71.

U.S. Treasury secretary Scott Bessent stated on Sunday that the recent yen movements had been "pretty much contained" and he expects Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda "to do the right thing" in monetary policy.

When G20 central banks and finance ministers meet in North Carolina, Monday and Tuesday, inflation and interest rates will likely dominate the discussions.

Spot gold dropped 0.45% to $4432.84 per ounce.

(source: Reuters)