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Oil prices and yields are up; US and Iran resume their military attacks

The yields on bonds rose, and the stock market fell Monday due to a jump in oil prices of more than 2%. This was accompanied by a return of military conflicts between the U.S. Worries about inflation are exacerbated by the resumption of military clashes between the?U.S.

U.S. President Donald Trump promised to "hit them hard" on Monday after Iran launched missiles at two U.S. bases in Jordan overnight in response to an attack by the U.S. on Iran's Larak island.

Brent crude futures rose by $2.39 or 2.71% to settle at $90.59 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude climbed $2.36 or 2.83% to settle at $8576. Brent reached its highest level since August 25 during the session.

This kept the possibility of future interest rate hikes by major central banks alive. Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh’s speech in Jackson Hole, Wyoming on Friday increased bets that the Fed will raise interest rates by September.

Fed funds futures traders now price in 65% odds for a rate hike in September, up from 35% prior to Warsh's Friday comments. It is widely expected that the European Central Bank will raise rates at its meeting on September 9-10.

U.S. Treasury rates rose, and the dollar edged down as expectations increased of a Fed rate hike in September.

Wall Street saw the Dow Jones Industrial Average?fall 374.09 points or 0.70% to 53,185.90. The S&P 500 dropped 25.62 points or 0.33% to 7,686.14 while the Nasdaq Composite fell by 31.53 points or 0.12% to 26,370.89.

Peter Cardillo is the chief market economist of Spartan Capital Securities, a New York-based brokerage.

He also said that the market was about to enter "a month which is usually quite difficult for stocks."

The stock market has historically had a poor performance in September.

Trading volumes were low as London's markets were closed on a holiday. The pan-European STOXX 600 fell 0.6% to 651.1 points.

The MSCI index of global stocks fell by 3.94 points or 0.34% to 1,149.22.

Major indexes have posted gains in August despite the losses on the day. The Nasdaq rose 3.9% in August, as the AI trade continued to thrive despite recent weakness. The Dow Jones industrial average has now risen for five consecutive months. The MSCI Global Index is up 2.6% in August.

There are dark clouds out there. Adam Sarhan is the chief executive officer of 50 Park Investments, a New York-based investment firm.

He said that inflation and rate increases are two of the biggest risks. However, the market is holding up so far.

The Fed's decision to move as soon as next month will depend on the U.S. August payroll report due Friday and the consumer price data that is due September 11.

After July's shocking decline of 23,000 workers, economists expect payrolls will increase by 58,000. Unemployment is expected to remain at 4.1%.

The yield of the benchmark 10-year Treasury bill in the United States was up 3.6 basis point at 4.758%. It had earlier reached 4.768%. This is its highest level since January 15, 2020. The yield has increased by 1.5 basis points for the month.

Prior to this, the yields on French and German 2-year bonds also rose.

The dollar index (which measures the U.S. currency versus six major counterparts) was down 0.24% to 99.43, after reaching 99.73 on Thursday, its highest since August 17. The index is on course for a second monthly decline following the U.S. Treasury Bond-buyback Plans earlier in the month that revived debasement trading.

The yen rose on Monday, after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated that he believed Japan's central bank and government would take actions to strengthen the yen. This suggests a high probability of an interest rate increase by the Bank of Japan in September.

After slipping past 160 dollars on Friday, the yen gained 0.2% and is now at 159.77.

Spot gold dropped 0.1% to $4.448.30 per ounce.

(source: Reuters)