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India's trade secretary reports that the India-US talks are progressing well.
India's trade minister said that the talks between India and America are "progressing well" and New Delhi does not see any obstacles to a successful conclusion of a deal. The framework agreement is complete. The framework deal will be signed when the time is right, said Rajesh Agrawal, trade secretary, at a June press conference, as he presented monthly data on exports and imports. In February, both sides agreed on a?18% tariff on Indian goods as a trade-off for New Delhi to lower its trade barriers and buy more American goods. The U.S. Supreme Court's ruling invalidating President Donald Trump’s global tariffs has clouded a final deal. "We're ready to sign, but the deals are all about comparative advantages." Agrawal added that these preferences were versus certain competitors and countries. Following the court order the majority of goods coming from?India now face a 10% U.S. Tariff, just like the rest of the?countries. The 'Trump Administration' is expected to introduce higher tariffs in this month as a result of an investigation into excessive?industrial capacity. Washington has already proposed a new 'tariff' of up to 12.5% for dozens of countries, including India, due to alleged failures to curb the?trade of goods made with forced labour. Agrawal stated that there is no difference or negativity between India and the United States. Reporting by Shivangi Asharya, Editing by YPrajesh and Alison Williams
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Iraqi Prime Minister seeks large energy investment on US visit
Zaidi Bets on US Companies to Stimulate Energy Sector The Iran War has caused a major economic blow to Iraq Zaidi to meet Trump for possible deals By Ahmed Rasheed & Muayad Hameed BAGHDAD (July 13) - Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi hopes to secure significant U.S. investments in the country's oil, gas and power sectors when he visits the White House next week. The Iran War has impacted the state's finances and crude production. Analysts say that Iraq's government has a growing focus on diversifying its international partnerships to better deal with the regional instability. This agenda is expected to take centre stage during the 13-18 July visit. This is one of the most direct attempts to date to attract major U.S. investments into a sector that has long been dominated by Chinese and Russian firms. Iraqi officials, however, reject any suggestion Baghdad was distancing themselves from their close ally Tehran for closer ties with Washington. Ahmed Younis, a political analyst based in Baghdad, said that the Iran war marked a turning-point. It highlighted the dangers of over-reliance on a single regional partner. He said that "Zaidi believes energy is the fastest way to deepen cooperation with Washington." According to Iraqi officials and U.S. government officials, the effort involves negotiations with Chevron on major upstream projects. It also includes support for?U.S. backed power and liquefied gas ventures. HKN Energy, a U.S. company, has signed an agreement to develop the Himreen Oilfield in northern Iraq. The government also authorized the Electricity Ministry, which is responsible for completing a comprehensive agreement of cooperation with General Electric aimed at expanding Iraq’s electricity transmission and generation infrastructure. These deals will be the focus of an upcoming meeting between Zaidi, who is a multi-millionaire and took office as Iraqi Prime Minister in May. Donald Trump has given Zaidi strong support. Zaidi stated in a statement issued before the trip that "we have instructed the Ministries of Oil, Electricity and Communications (MOEC) to give priority to American companies with reputable track records in the fields of energy, telecommunications, and technology." FOCUSING ON US FIRMS VS. CHINESE, RUSSIAN, AND EUROPEAN COMPANIES Analysts say it will be difficult to attract enough investment for the development of oilfields, and fixing infrastructure bottlenecks which have prevented sustained increases in production. A document seen by revealed that the Iraqi Cabinet instructed the Basra Oil Company, the state-run oil company in Iraq, to exempt U.S. companies involved in energy project discussions from certain regulatory requirements relating to preliminary agreements in early June. Mohammed Abbas, an energy consultant and former manager of the Basra Oil Company, said that the recent decisions about Chevron and U.S. operators operating in the Kurdistan Region reflect a deliberate shift in policy. "Zaidi uses Iraq's energy industry to strengthen ties with Washington, and to change the perception of some U.S. major energy companies that Iraq is an unfriendly environment for large-scale investments." Four Iraqi oil officials who are familiar with the talks between U.S. energy firms -- such as Chevron and ExxonMobil -- and Baghdad said that the move underscored Baghdad’s broader efforts to deepen the economic cooperation?with United States. This outreach is coming as Iraq struggles with the same challenge that many oil-producing countries face: attracting investments and expanding production, while still being constrained by the OPEC+ producer's group output limits. Although?Iraq has some of the largest crude oil reserves in the world, long-standing production restrictions have complicated efforts to raise revenue to support an ever-growing population. Iraq's strategy has become more important as negotiations with Chevron are a key element. Chevron began exclusive talks with Iraq earlier this year over the West Qurna-2 giant oilfield after Baghdad replaced Russia's Lukoil, the operator. This could have given the U.S. Chevron has taken control of Iraq's largest oilfield. Iraqi legislators and analysts have indicated that the energy initiatives of the government are meant to send a signal to Washington, that Iraq has become a more attractive location for international investment following years of security concerns, bureaucratic obstacles, and legal disputes. The security situation has significantly improved since the defeat of Islamic State a decade or so ago. However, periodic drone attacks and regional tensions still pose a threat to energy infrastructure. Iraqi officials claim that security measures around oil installations have been strengthened since the conflict with Iran. Additional measures are being taken to reassure foreign energy companies. "Prime Minister Zaidi is a businessman and knows that winning over American companies to invest in Iraq, especially with the fragile security situation in the region, is not an easy task," said Murad ISMAEL, a member of Iraq's oil and gas parliamentary committee. (Reporting and editing by Michael Georgy and Aidan Lewis; Reporting by Ahmed Rasheed & Muayad Haeed)
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Copper remains firm as US-Iran conflict weighs on sentiment
The dollar was weaker on Monday, but gains were limited as tensions between the U.S.A. and Iran escalated and oil prices increased, further causing inflationary fears. The benchmark copper price on the London Metal Exchange was 0.1% higher, at $13,501 per metric ton of official rings. The lower dollar makes metals priced in dollars cheaper for holders of currencies other than the U.S. dollar, which could increase demand. After renewed military strikes by the United States and Iran, concerns about energy shipments via the Strait of Hormuz were reignited. The focus was also on falling copper inventories. The copper stocks in LME approved warehouses fell by more than 20 percent since the end of May, to a 4-month low level of 305 200 tons. Metal earmarked for deliveries at 43% or cancelled warrants indicate that another 130,525 tonnes is expected to leave the LME. Sources in the industry say that much of the copper is headed to the United States, where President Donald Trump may impose tariffs on metals used in construction and power industries. Since President Donald Trump launched a national-security probe in February last year, traders and producers have shipped metals to the United States. Since then, the copper stocks in warehouses that were registered with Comex have increased by nearly 600%. The Shanghai Futures Exchange monitors warehouses and has found that copper stocks have dropped by 80% in the last few months. As material leaves warehouses, the rapid fall in stocks creates a higher floor price. This trend is seen across most metals. The markets are anticipating Kevin Warsh's first appearance as Federal Reserve Chair before the?Congress and?U.S. Inflation data can provide clues about the direction of the dollar. Lead fell 1.2% to $1.874, zinc declined 1.5% to $3.563, aluminium rose 0.2% at $3.145, tin increased by 0.1% to $53,200, and nickel dropped 1% to $15,575.
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OPEC lowers its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2026
* Oil demand growth in 2026 is cut by 190,000 barrels per day (bpd) due to the impact of the Iran war * OPEC+ production?rises 3 million bpd by June as Hormuz flow starts to?recover * Reduced geopolitical tensions could give the economy some 'upside' in the second half of the year Olesya Astakhova & Alex Lawler LONDON - OPEC lowered Monday its forecast for the world's oil demand growth to 780,000 barrels a day. This is its third consecutive downward revision. The producer group has continued to predict a lower impact on consumption than other forecasters, such as the International Energy Agency. OPEC has said that the world economy could do better for the remainder of the year, and it has 'raised the oil demand growth projections for 2027. The Middle East's oil production was cut by millions of barrels as a result of the war, which effectively closed one of the most important oil routes in the world for several months. The?interim agreement between Iran and United States has led to a?recovery of output, but renewed military strikes have reignited concerns about shipments. OPEC's report posted on its website stated that "the global economic growth dynamics in the first half 2026 have remained broadly resilient." If energy markets and trade flow stabilize further, a possible moderation in geopolitical conflicts could provide some upside to global growth in 2026's second half. Compared to the previous forecast, this year's oil demand is expected to grow by 970,000 bpd. OPEC estimates that oil demand will rise by 1.94million bpd in '2027. This is an increase of?210,000 bpd over the previous forecast. OPEC+ - which includes the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, such as Russia - had agreed to resume production?increases in April. However, the closure of Hormuz has made it impossible for the production to reach the agreed quota levels. The report says that OPEC+ crude production averaged 36.28 millions bpd, an increase of about 3 million bpd compared to May. It cites'secondary sources' OPEC uses for monitoring its?production as Gulf member countries began to resume their output halted during the Iran War. The United Arab Emirates left OPEC+ and OPEC on May 1, so the May figures includes them.
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UK bans two Iranian groups for antisemitic acts in Britain
After a series of antisemitic attacks on British streets, the British government used powers similar to proscriptions in order to combat state-backed threats. This power would effectively ban support for these groups, and give police and intelligence agencies?new powers to combat any threats related to them. Keir starmer, the Prime Minister of Britain, said that "these 'new powers' will make it easier for anyone to be prosecuted and jailed in Britain who is doing their dirty work." Since its establishment in 1979, the IRGC has been an elite military force loyal the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic. The Islamic Movement of Companions 'of the Right', a second Iran-linked group, claimed responsibility for seven antisemitic attacks on Jewish and Israeli communities as well as Persian-language media. This included the arson attack against four Hatzola ambulances at Golders Green, London, which took place on 23 March. The new powers also included the designation of Russia's GRU intelligence agency. Before the?designations can take effect, they must be approved by Parliament.
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Gold prices continue to decline as Middle East tensions support a higher-for longer rate view
Gold prices fell for a second session in a row on Monday, as renewed?hostilities? in the Middle East fueled inflationary fears and raised expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve would keep interest rates high for longer. By 1100 GMT, spot gold had fallen 1.4%, to $4.061.64, while U.S. Gold Futures for August Delivery were down by 1.1%, to $4.069.60. U.S. forces and Iranian drones have exchanged heavy attacks, including missiles and drones. Tehran has also hinted at the closing of the Strait of Hormuz. On hearing the news, oil prices rose by over 3%. "Renewed hostilities (in the Gulf) rekindle fears about inflation and the risks of further Federal Reserve tightening. This creates additional headwinds for gold through higher bond yields, and a stronger Dollar," said Ole Hansen, a Saxo Bank analyst. Hansen stated that "focus on the Middle East, higher oil prices and low liquidity during summer holidays are key risks which may cause gold prices to move outside of their current range of $3.900-$4,200." The opportunity cost of non-yielding gold increases as interest rates rise. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders are now pricing in a 69% chance that the U.S. Fed will raise interest rates in September. This is up from a 63% probability last week. This week is packed with U.S. Economic Data Releases, including the June Consumer?Price Index,?Producer Price Index as well as weekly Jobless Claims. Kevin Warsh will make his first appearance as the new?Fed chair before Congress on Tuesday and on Wednesday. This is expected to provide further insight on the economy, inflation and monetary policies. COMEX gold traders reduced their net long position by 1,964 contracts, to 114,854 during the week ending July 7, according to data released on Friday. This was after three weeks of consecutive increases. Silver spot fell 2.4%, to 58.4181 dollars per ounce. Platinum dropped 0.5%, to $1.619.98. Palladium was down 0.8%, to $1.266.60. (Reporting and editing by Barbara Lewis, Hugh Lawson, and Sukanya Mitra in Bengaluru)
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Sources: White House will rally utilities and data centers to AI power pledge
Three people with knowledge of the plan say that according to the White House, it plans to bring together?utility providers and data center developers in order to sign a voluntary commitment to prevent artificial intelligence from driving up electricity bills. In the next few weeks, an event will be held to announce this initiative. Several companies are expected to participate and have pledged to protect the current ratepayers by not requiring them to pay for the entire cost of AI expansion. Sources said that the guest list was still being finalized. The surge in demand for power from data centers, which are notoriously energy-hungry, has led regulators, consumer groups and legislators to warn that the public could end up subsidizing grid improvements needed to service some of the largest technology companies. This has raised questions about whether or not the pledge would deliver tangible?commitments, or remain largely symbolical. The Trump administration is accelerating the expansion of AI infrastructure in order to avoid political backlash due to rising electricity costs. Amazon, Google Meta, Microsoft OpenAI, Oracle, and xAI all signed a "Ratepayer Protect Pledge" earlier this year at a White House event, pledging to pay for the electricity infrastructure required to support their AI projects, rather than pass those costs onto existing utility customers. The companies have agreed to pay for grid upgrades, new power generation and other costs associated with their data centers. This includes unused capacity reserved. The White House stated that the commitments are designed to stop households subsidizing AI infrastructure growth. A White House official said that the Ratepayer Protect Pledge of President Trump has "been so effective" that other stakeholders want to sign it. People familiar with the plans say that the new event is expected to expand on those commitments, bringing together electric utility companies, data center operators and governors from states who are leading the expansion of power infrastructure to accommodate an expected surge in electricity demand. White House officials have argued that America can only win the global AI race by rapidly expanding electricity generation and transmission. They also maintain that consumers shouldn't be liable for the cost of this build-out. The initiative is being marketed by administration officials as a way to convince voters that AI investments and lower energy prices can coexist. (Reporting and editing by Nia William; Courtney Rozen, Sergio Non and Courtrett Renshaw).
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Brazil coffee faces El Nino headwinds, but crops more resilient
According to the Brazilian Coffee Industry Association (Abic), El Nino may reduce Brazil's record coffee harvest by as much as a fifth due to excessive heat and irregular rain. The state-run crop agency,?Conab, has forecast that this year's total production of arabica beans and canephora will be a record 66.7 million 60 kilogram (132.3 lb), with the latter including varieties such as robusta and Conilon. Celirio Da Silva, Abic's executive director, warned that a deterioration in weather conditions during an El Nino cycle could?dramatically decrease production. In a normal season, a loss of 15 to 20 percent would be expected. In the current situation, this is bad news," said he in an interview. The coffee industry is better prepared for this El Nino than it was during previous episodes, thanks to the technological advancements that have produced a more resistant crop. Silva said, "We have made significant progress and are now able to harvest?and plant more efficiently." In recent years, coffee farmers have bolstered their ability to mitigate climate risk by rapidly expanding irrigation system. They've invested heavily in this technology to reduce their dependency on increasingly unpredictable rainfall caused by climate change. El Nino will disrupt the biological cycle of the crop, especially during the flowering period, in the second half 2026. Experts say that excessive heat and irregular rain can cause uneven and unproductive flowering. Wellis Caixeta is the purchasing manager for Minas Gerais-based Expocacer. He said that irregular ripening can cause quality issues and make harvesting more difficult. El Nino 2023/24, coupled with heatwaves, irregular rainfall and other factors, has reduced Brazil's coffee?crop for 2024 from the initial government estimate of 58.8 million to 54.2 millions 60-kg bags. Despite arabica having a positive biennial cycle the output only rose by 0.2% while conilon productivity dropped 5.9%. El Nino could explain certain anomalies such as the unusual rainfall that occurred in Brazil's southeast over the last month. Expocacer estimates rainfall above 50 millimeters occurred in arabica-growing areas about 40 days prior to harvesting. This caused significant amounts of coffee cherries to drop to the ground and lowered the quality of the beans. Espirito Santo in Brazil, the largest producer of canephora, also experienced irregular weather conditions this year. There were longer intervals between rain and shorter, more intense showers, according to Luiz Carl Bastianello, President of Cooabriel - Brazil's biggest canephora cooperative. Bastianello, a state grower, said that they are worried about El Nino, which could cause excessive heat and prolong the dry period through January 2027. This would disrupt bean filling. Bastianello stated that it was too early to predict the impact of El Nino on 2027. Heat is the greatest risk factor for crop losses. Canephora's metabolism slows down above 27 degrees Celsius (80.66degF). At 35degC it completely stops. He added that the damage can be greater than the lack of water itself. The conditions have been better in the north of Brazil where temperatures and rain have remained within normal seasonal ranges. Farmers in Rondonia expect to harvest a record?3 millions 60-kg bags (132.3 lb), which is higher than the crop agency Conab?s forecast of 2.77million bags. Juan Travain of the state coffee association Caferon said that El Nino's heat and drought will not have as much impact on Rondonian robusta crops as it would on regions producing arabica. "Coffee's temperature is very sensitive, but almost all robusta plantations have irrigation, and many also use water-based systems for cooling. "Many arabica farms are still without irrigation", he added.
Nigerian oil production reached highest level since 2020, says regulator
According to the data released on Sunday by the regulator, Nigeria's crude oil production reached its highest level in more than six years in June, as stable operations and improved reliability of pipelines boosted output. The Nigeria Upstream Regulatory Commission reported that Africa's biggest oil producer, Nigeria, produced an average of 1,56 million barrels of crude oil per day in June, which was 4% higher than the quota set by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries.
Nigeria's total oil production, including condensates that are not subject to OPEC quotas in June, averaged 1.735 millions bpd, up from 1.7 million bpd a month earlier and marking a 4th consecutive month of growth.
The crude oil production in June was the highest since April 2020. This is a 74 month high.
According to data, stable operations in producing assets and the lack of major pipeline failures helped support production uptime.
Nigeria's production has increased steadily in recent months. It went from 1.483 million barrels per day in February to 1.546 million in March, then 1.663 in April, and finally 1.700 in May. The June production was higher by 2.2% than the previous months. Reporting by TifeOwolabi; Writing by ChijiokeOhuocha, Editing by Kirby Donovan
(source: Reuters)