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Stocks rise, US yields drop as Fed rate-cut bets increase

On Monday, global stocks rose for the second consecutive session as expectations of a December rate reduction from the U.S. Federal Reserve helped calm recent concerns over stretched valuations in AI while yields on longer-dated U.S. Treasury bonds fell.

The stock market dropped last week, with the largest percentage weekly drop since early August. This was due to a lack of optimism about the prospects of an interest rate cut. Other factors included the impact of the prolonged U.S. shutdown on the economy and the lingering concern over high valuations of AI-related firms. Stocks rallied by the end of last week, after New York Fed president John Williams stated that interest rates could fall in the short term. Other policymakers were insistent on borrowing costs remaining the same for the time being. Williams' comments on Monday were echoed by Fed Governor Christopher Waller who stated that data available indicates that the U.S. employment market is still weak enough to warrant a further quarter-point reduction in interest rates.

Brian Levitt is the chief global market analyst for Invesco.

The market does not expect a recession and there is no robust economic data, but the weaker background is conducive to a decrease in the Fed Funds rate.

The U.S. market will be closed for Thanksgiving on Thursday. According to CME's FedWatch Tool the markets are now pricing in a 85.1% probability of a 25 basis point cut at the December meeting. This is up from 42.4% one week ago. The expectation of a rate reduction increased during the session, after San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank president Mary Daly said to the Wall Street Journal that she supported lowering interest rates next month at the central banks meeting.

Goldman Sachs' chief economist Jan Hatzius stated in a Sunday note that he anticipates another Fed cut in December. This will be followed by two further cuts in March 2026 and June 2026, "that bring the funds rate up to 3-3.25%." The U.S. stock market closed higher on Wall Street. This was led by an increase of almost 4% in the communications services sector, while Alphabet, parent company of Google, soared more than 6%.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 202.86, or 0.4%, to 46.448.27. The S&P 500 rose 102.09, or 1.55% to 6,705.08, and the Nasdaq Composite soared 598.92, or 2.69 %, to 22872.01. Nasdaq's gains were its largest daily percentage increase since May 12. European stocks closed higher due to expectations of interest rates, while investors were encouraged by signs that progress was being made toward a peace agreement between Ukraine and Russia.

MSCI's global stock index rose 11.57 points, or 1.19%. This is the largest daily percentage gain since the 10th of November. STOXX 600, the pan-European index, closed up 0.14%, after initially gaining 0.71%. This week, the U.S. government will release data on retail sales and producer price levels. The eagerly anticipated budget of British finance minister Rachel Reeves is due Wednesday. The U.S., Ukraine and other countries are working on a plan that will end the conflict in Ukraine. They modified an earlier proposal which was seen by Kyiv and Europe as being too favorable to Moscow. This weighed down on oil prices, as a deal would allow more Russian oil to be supplied through easing sanctions. Treasury yields in the United States were lower due to expectations of interest rates. The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10 year notes dropped 2.7 basis points to 4,036%.

The auction of two-year notes for $69 billion was a solid success, with demand exceeding the average at 2.68 times that amount.

The dollar index, which measures a dollar's value against a basket, fell 0.07%, to 100.18. The euro rose 0.1%, at $1.1522. The pound rose 0.11%, to $1.3106. The markets were also looking for any signs of a possible Japanese intervention with the yen. It fell 0.28% to 156.82 dollars per yen. The Japanese yen is down 1.8% versus the dollar in this month. Takuji aida, an advisor to Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi said on Sunday that Japan could actively intervene in currency markets to mitigate the negative impact of a weakened yen.

U.S. crude oil rose 1.34%, to settle at $58,84 per barrel. Brent settled at $63,37 per barrel. Brent was up 1.29% for the day on rising expectations of rate cuts and growing doubts that Russia would achieve a peace agreement with Ukraine.

(source: Reuters)