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The Russian rouble is at its highest since July due to a decline in imports

The Russian rouble is at its highest since July due to a decline in imports

On Wednesday, the Russian rouble reached its highest level against the U.S. Dollar since July 24, with a government official claiming that the strengthening is linked to the shrinking of imports because of high interest rates.

In order to combat inflation, the central bank raised its key interest rates to 21%. This year it has cut them to 17% due to a slowing economy and falling inflation. The current rate makes credit impossible for many firms, including importers.

According to data from the central bank, Russian imports declined by 7.3% on an annual basis in August. According to China's Customs, imports from China, Russia’s main trading partner fell by 10.6%.

"The strengthening of rouble is in part due to tighter monetary policies." The exchange rate is strengthening because imports have declined, but export revenues are still the same.

The rouble was trading at 78.85 by 1150 GMT Wednesday after reaching 78.27 on the over-the-counter market, its highest level since 24 July. The rouble strengthened by 0.7%, reaching 11.01 against the Chinese yuan. This is also the highest level since July 24.

Proposed VAT increase in 2026

It is expected that the central bank will continue to cut rates in 2019. However, the government's proposal to increase the value-added (VAT) tax by 2026, which would accelerate inflation, has increased the probability of a pause.

Siluanov denied that the central banks deliberately supported the rouble by selling foreign currencies.

Everything is based on trade balances and capital flows. He said that the tightening monetary policy had led to a strengthening of the currency rate, with corresponding effects on the economy and the budget revenue.

The rise in the rouble contrasts with a general slowdown of the economy. According to the International Monetary Fund, the growth rate for the gross domestic product (GDP), which was 4.3% last fiscal year, is expected to slow down from 0.6% this year to just 0.6%.

The turn to a new round of strengthening was unexpected. Sofya Donnets, analyst at T-Bank. The overwhelming majority of analysts expect the rouble will weaken to 90 rubles by the end the year. Reporting by Gleb Brianski, Darya Kosunskaya, and Elena Fabrichnaya; editing by Ed Osmond

(source: Reuters)