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Gold and stocks rise after Trump imposes tariffs on Canada
Global stocks dropped on Friday as U.S. president Donald Trump escalated his tariff war against Canada. This left Europe in the firing lines, causing a modest investor move into safe havens like gold. The Canadian dollar dropped after Trump sent a late-night letter on Thursday stating that a 35% tax rate would be applied to all imports coming from Canada starting August 1. A letter was expected to be sent by Friday to the European Union. The U.S. President, whose global tariff wave has disrupted businesses and policymaking, proposed a 15% or 20% blanket tariff rate for other countries. This is an increase from the 10% baseline rate. He surprised Brazil this week, which has an excess of trade with the United States. He imposed duties of up to 50% on copper, pharmaceuticals, and semiconductor chips. The markets have not reacted to the current volatility, with the exception of a few pockets of volatility, whether in currencies, commodities or stocks. In fact, the VIX volatility indicator is at its lowest level since late February. In Europe, STOXX 600 fell by 0.8%, despite a 2% increase this week. Futures for the S&P 500, Nasdaq and Dow fell between 0.4-0.5%. This indicates that the record highs of this week will be retreated at the opening later. Fiona Cincotta, City Index's strategist, said that the market was becoming numb. It may not be until hard data is presented to show an impact before we start to see a reaction. "We're getting a lot more information, and that brings with it a certain clarity." "Because there is so many uncertainties, there's still the idea that Trump is open to negotiations, nothing feels final yet," she said. The dollar had risen as high as 0.5% against the Canadian Dollar before reversing course to C$1.3697. This was an increase of 0.2% for the day. The euro, which is down nearly 1% since the beginning of July, fell by 0.1% to $1.1694. Trump had earlier in the week pushed back to August 1, his deadline for tariffs for many trading partners, to give more time for negotiation. But he also expanded his trade war by setting new tariffs for several countries, including Japan and South Korea. He also imposed a 50% copper tariff. Joseph Capurso is the head of international economy at Commonwealth Bank of Australia. He said that the 35% tariff rate on Canada wasn't as bad as people thought because the United States, Mexico, and Canada Agreement (USMCA) still allows for exemptions to be applied to most imports. Capurso stated, "Now we don't yet know the tariff rate on EU imports... that's what's not known as yet." "If we get something like (the U.S. - China trade war in April), it's going be very destabilising." Wall Street indexes closed at record highs Thursday, as AI chip maker Nvidia set a new market value of over $4 trillion. Gold has risen for the third consecutive day, rising 0.8% to $3348 per ounce. This brings July's gains to 1.2%. Treasuries received less of a boost as a safe haven, due to investor concerns about the long-term stability of U.S. government finance. This led to a selloff which pushed up yields. Benchmark 10-year yields increased 3.7 basis points to 4,384%, adding on to Thursday's increase. This was due to data showing that jobless claims unexpectedly declined last week. As the chances of a U.S. - Japan trade deal dimming, the yen has steadily weakened. The dollar rose 0.45% to 146.93yen on Friday, resulting in a 1.6% weekly gain, the largest this year. Bitcoin's price rose by as much as 4,6%, reaching a record high of $118 832. Investors will closely monitor the second-quarter earnings of corporations next week in order to assess the impact of Trump’s tariffs that began on April 2. JPMorgan Chase will release its results on Tuesday. This marks the beginning of the reporting period. Brent crude oil prices increased by nearly 1% to $69.3 per barrel, partially reversing previous day's declines.
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First Quantum: Prospect investment is key to Zambia copper growth
Anthony Mukutuma, FQM’s Country Director in Zambia, said that the recent investment by First Quantum Minerals in Prospect Resources was key to extending mine life at Sentinel Mine. In April, the Canada-based company invested 15% in Prospect and became the largest shareholder of the Australia-listed exploration firm. Prospect is exploring Mumbezhi, a copper project located about 30 km (19 miles) away from FQM’s Sentinel Mine. FQM is a key partner in Mumbezhi exploration. Mukutuma said that the mine life for Sentinel is currently 12 years. FQM has been studying ways to extend this, he added. Mukutuma stated that initial exploration at Mumbezhi had shown positive results. He added that the project was similar to Sentinel when it came to copper grades. He said that it could have an impact on Sentinel's mine life. This week, Prospect said that exploration to date "strongly placed Mumbezhi as one of the leading copper assets in Zambia". Sentinel Mine produced 231,000 metric tonnes of copper in 2024. This is more than half the total production of FQM of 431,000 tons. FQM completed a $1.25billion expansion project for its Kansanshi nickel mine and Kansanshi Copper Mine. The expansion project will extend the life of Kansanshi to 2046, and increase its production to 280,000 tons per year from current levels. Zambia, Africa’s second largest copper producer behind the Democratic Republic of Congo plans to increase production of the red metallic to 3 million tonnes annually by 2031 to take advantage of the growing global demand for renewable energy plants, electric vehicles, and other technologies. Zambia produced 821 tons of copper in the year 2024, an increase of 12% over the previous year. The UAE's International Resources Holding is also looking at other mines, such as Barrick Mining Corp.'s Lumwana or Vedanta Konkola, which recently acquired Mopani. Reporting by Chris Mfula. (Editing by Nelson Banya, Mark Potter and Mark Potter).
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INSIGHT: The White House aide who is driving Trump's aggressive immigration policy
Marines from the United States on the streets of Los Angeles. Immigration officers masked at popular restaurants and courthouses. Travel bans for more than a dozen nations. Stephen Miller, a senior White House adviser who was the architect of Donald Trump's crackdown on immigration, thought that everything was going as planned. Stephen Miller had set a quota for 3,000 arrests / day by late May. The efforts to reach that goal forced U.S. Immigration officers into more businesses and communities, which sparked protests and tensions between Democrats and Republicans. Three former U.S. government officials who were aware of the call say that the president then called Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Nuem. She was in Los Angeles in mid-June with other immigration officials. One of the former U.S. officials stated that "he said: "We're going do this targeted"." Former officials say that after this call, U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement stopped raids at farms, hotels and restaurants, and food processing facilities. One of the former officials said that Trump did not know the extent of enforcement efforts. "Once it hit him, it was too late," the official told the reporter. The pause was brief. ICE rescinded its guidance just days after it had been issued, leaving many officials in confusion. Two former officials stated that the episode showed a moment of dissonance in Trump's immigration staff, which had otherwise appeared to be on the same page with strategy. Miller's "no-holds barred" approach was an indication that it could be taken too far by the president. An official at the White House said that there was no difference between Miller and Trump, and Miller's immigration enforcement approach had not targeted farms as a priority. The official said that the original ICE directive pausing raids was not authorized by top leaders in the administration. Miller, 39 years old, is known for being obsessed with immigration. As deputy chief of staff, he has immense power in multiple areas within the West Wing. This influence has increased since Trump was elected president in 2017-2021. Miller's leadership has led the Trump administration to double immigration arrests, push the legal limits for deportations and block travelers from 19 different countries. It also moved to restrict the birthright citizenship, as well as help Republicans pass a spending bill that dedicates approximately $170 billion dollars to immigration enforcement. Miller has also been a leading voice in many of President Obama's other initiatives, such as the fight against diversity and transgender issues. A person with knowledge of the matter says that Miller is part of a small team of White House staffers responsible for approving all executive orders. Three former colleagues claim that Miller's immigration policies are experimental and test the limits of the Constitution. This includes a challenge to the 14th Amendment birthright citizenship. One Republican official stated, "He has a worldview of which he is 100 percent certain." Miller said that if Republicans did not support the spending bill Trump signed last week, the society would crumble. In a blog post, he said: "Republicans spent generations promising Americans complete, total and full border security." "Now is the time to keep the promise that will determine the fate of civilisation itself." Miller's critics claim that he is using nativism to further his political agenda and promoting policies which are more geared towards cruelty than effectiveness. Noem and other administration officials praised Miller's loyalty to Trump, saying he played a key role in shaping the immigration agenda of the Trump administration. She said that Stephen's passion, patriotism, and persistence helped fuel the administration to deport the most criminal illegal aliens ever in the history. UNPRECEDENTED INFLUE Trump regained the White House partly by campaigning against illegal immigration. He claimed that millions of people had entered the country unlawfully during former President Joe Biden's tenure and portrayed them as dangerous criminals to be expelled. Miller played a key role in promoting this narrative, and he championed policies that have fuelled Trump's aggressive crackdown. According to an /Ipsos survey, initially, immigration was Trump’s most popular issue. However, as the crackdown intensified, public approval dropped to 44% by mid-June, from 47% one month earlier. Colleagues said that Miller's close and long-standing relationship with Trump is the reason for his unprecedented influence over immigration policy in the United States. Marc Short, the former chief of staff of Vice President Mike Pence, said, "He was at the beginning, the very beginning, of the Trump phenomenon." "He has been loyal to the president since the beginning of the first administration." Miller, a married father of three, became a key policy figure in Trump's first year. Former Trump administration officials said that Miller was driven and assertive and used the exact same tone in his interactions with colleagues and on television as he did when addressing audiences. The former official stated that it was difficult to speak. "He is not interested in your opinion. This is not a conversation that involves collaboration. "If you engage him, he'll talk over you." Former official says Miller called senior Homeland Security officials so frequently that they needed to have a staffer dedicated to talking to him. According to a current official and a former official, the direct outreach to agency employees has continued into the current administration. Two former officials stated that the threat of being fired or blacklisted if you crossed Miller, and possibly by Trump and his political allys, also contributed to Miller's authority. Miller founded the conservative advocacy group America First Legal in 2021 after Trump left his office. The group filed or supported lawsuits on immigration policies, among other issues. Miller, who was appointed deputy chief of staff in the second Trump administration and is also the White House Homeland Security Council's director, will coordinate immigration policies as well as other domestic security issues within the administration. Miller was welcomed by his entire staff, unlike other parts of the National Security Council. He also appears to be more independent, according to a source familiar with the situation. The person who spoke to us said that Miller was "ready to rock and roll from Day One". Miller's homeland team was not affected by the NSC downsizing even though dozens of NSC officials were let go. 'XENOPHOBIC WORLD VIEW ' Miller was born in Santa Monica, California. About a quarter are foreign-born. Miller was a conservative from high school onwards and gained a reputation as a provocateur early in his career. He studied at Duke University in North Carolina, where he was known for his defenses of lacrosse players accused of raping Black women working as strippers in 2006. He wrote about this case in newspaper articles and appeared on Fox News. Last year, the woman acknowledged that her accusations had been a hoax. Democrats have accused Miller of being the driving force behind Trumps harshest policies. Karen Bass is the current mayor of Los Angeles, and she has been at odds with the Trump Administration over ICE raids in the city. Katie Miller was the wife of Miller during Elon Musk's roughly four-month stay at the White House. After Musk left the White House in late May, she went to work for Musk. Former and current Trump officials did not indicate that Trump's intermittent friction with Musk caused tension between him and his longtime assistant. Miller's crackdown has continued for nearly a month, despite Trump's phone call and the back and forth over ICE raids. U.S. agriculture secretary Brooke Rollins stated on Tuesday that agricultural workers will not be granted "amnesty", and the administration is aiming to have an all-American workforce. Federal agents in Los Angeles were flanked by U.S. troops wearing heavy armor, and they marched through the city park. This was a forceful display that enraged local officials. Trump called Miller "our hero" last week when introducing Miller at the opening of the migrant detention facility officials nicknamed "Alligator Alcatraz". The center is located in the Florida Everglades wetlands, which are subtropical wetlands teeming reptiles and wildlife. Trump, speaking at a roundtable discussion with Miller and Noem said that even Miller would have respected the way Noem handled her role. Trump said, "I don’t think he is fond of anyone." Miller, in return, praised Trump's decision to empower ICE and Border Patrol and use legal tools and diplomacy for a more aggressive immigration enforcement. Miller said, "Watching you, sir, was one of the greatest honors in my life." I'm proud that I could play a role in this. (Reporting from Ted Hesson in Washington and Jeff Mason in San Francisco, with additional reporting by Trevor Hunnicutt. Editing by Colleen J. Jenkins and Michael Learmonth.
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The French harvest of wheat and barley continues at a rapid pace. Maize ratings continue to worsen
France's barley and wheat harvests are still well ahead of normal pace. However, maize conditions have declined after a hot summer start, according to FranceAgriMer, the farm office. The rapid field work and strong yields reported have raised expectations for a rebound in wheat and barley production after the rain-damaged harvest of last year, which included the smallest crop of wheat since the 1980s. FranceAgriMer reported in a report on cereals that French farmers had harvested 36 percent of the soft wheat harvest by 7 July, up from 11 percent a week before and exceeding the five-year median of 15 percent for the same period. The soft wheat rating improved slightly. 68% of the crops were rated as being in excellent or good condition. This is up by one point compared to a week ago and significantly higher than last year's score of 57%. The harvest of winter barley is almost complete. 94% of the crop was harvested on Monday compared to the average of 64% over the past five years. France and other parts in Europe have been experiencing scorching temperatures for the last month. The heat wave has accelerated the ripening process of wheat and barley, while only causing minimal stress to these cereals. Benoit Pietrement is the head of Intercereales - a French grain industry association. He said: "Overall it has been a good year, especially for winter barley." "Wheat is a little more mixed, but overall it's very good. It's much better than the last year." Pietrement explained that crops with strong roots from autumn last year were better able to withstand the spring drought, and could draw from moisture reserves left over from heavy rains last year. Spring barley, he said, was more likely to be affected by recent hot, dry conditions. FranceAgriMer reported that the harvest of spring barley had been completed by Monday at 30%, compared to a five-year median of 14%. By July 7, 75% of maize crops had been rated as good or excellent, down from 78% one week earlier. This is the lowest score this time of the year since 2018. The cooler temperatures and showers this week will help maize crops while slowing down the harvest of wheat and barley.
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Ford accepts voluntary redundancies at troubled eCar site in Cologne
Ford and German employee representatives announced on Friday that the company has agreed to an employment protection plan at its Cologne factory, which will cover over 10,000 employees. Voluntary redundancies are planned as a response to the slow uptake of electric vehicles. Ford has undergone a painful restructuring process in Europe. Cologne - Cuts in Cologne Then, there is the Closure is imminent Saarlouis, a new blow to Germany's reputation as a hub for car manufacturing. Ford announced in a press release that the framework is valid until 2032 and includes the 2,900 job reductions announced by the company last November. The majority of the job cuts were due to voluntary redundancies. In a press release, Benjamin Gruschka, the head of the works council said that severance pay was generous and better than normal in this industry. The IG Metall union stated that the future of Cologne's production was still unclear, but it welcomed the "safety-net." Ford, who invested $2 billion to transform its Cologne plant into an EV hub, called on the German Government to provide better incentives and charging infrastructure for drivers to make the switch to electric. IG Metall stated that the agreement for Cologne included the option for employees impacted by the reductions to trade places with other people in the company who are willing to leave. The agreement must still be approved by a vote of the workers. (Reporting and editing by Thomas Seythal, Rachel More)
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Trump visits Texas flood site amid concerns about disaster response
The U.S. president Donald Trump will be in central Texas this Friday to assess the damage caused by the flash flood of July 4, which killed at least 120 and left many more people missing. The government's response to the storm is a hot topic a week later, as first responders continue to comb through the mud and debris in the hope of finding more survivors. In the early morning hours of Independence Day, torrential rains caused a massive wall of water to rage down the Guadalupe River. Independence Day. This is the worst disaster of the Republican President's six-month tenure in office. According to a White House spokesperson, Trump will speak to family members of victims and emergency responders. The county, which is the heart of the damage, will be the site for his visit. He will receive a briefing by local officials and also see the sites. The county is in "flash-flood alley", an area that has been hit by some of the deadliest floods in American history. In less than an hour, more than a foot fell on the 4th of July. The river rose in height from a few inches to over 34 feet (10.40 meters) within a few hours. It washed away trees and other structures as it swept its way. At least 36 children are dead, including many campers from Camp Mystic - an all-girls Christian retreat located on the banks. Local and federal officials were questioned about their response. They also questioned whether they could've done more to warn the public of the rising floodwaters. Years ago, the county refused to install an early warning system because it could not secure funding from state grants to cover its cost. Officials say that their current focus is rescue and recovery. In a special session, the state legislature will meet later this month in order to investigate and provide funding for disaster relief. The Trump Administration has provided disaster relief through the Federal Emergency Management Agency. This includes funds for temporary housing, property damage, and disaster recovery. Trump has mostly avoided questions about his previous plans to shrink or eliminate the agency, and to have its key functions carried out by local and state governments. When asked about FEMA by a journalist on Tuesday, Trump replied: "I'll let you know another time." Chuck Schumer, the top Democrat in the U.S. Senate, asked a government watchdog on Monday to investigate whether the National Weather Service's budget cuts affected its response. The NWS defended their forecasting and emergency planning, noting that they assigned extra forecasters in two Texas offices during the holiday weekend. The Trump administration said that the agency had enough staff and was able to respond adequately to an "act of God." A reporter asked Trump on Sunday if government budget cuts had hampered the response to disasters. Trump replied, "It didn’t." Reporting by Nicole Johnson, Washington; editing by Trevor Hunnicutt & Cynthia Osterman
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Copper prices fall on fears of tariffs affecting US demand
The copper price fell on Friday, as investors feared that a 50% tariff would be levied on U.S. imports of the metal. Speculators also unwound their positions. The London Metal Exchange's three-month copper was down 0.8% at $9,622 a metric ton as of 0915 GMT. This is down from the peak reached on July 2 for the last three months, which was $10,020.50. The contract was expected to drop about 2% in the second week of this year. Carsten Menke is an analyst at Julius Baer, Zurich. "Another aspect, I believe, is the re-evaluation of the situation by speculators who need to now reassess a situation that was quite bullish previously." Menke believes that the LME will return to $9,000 per ton, or less. In recent months, speculators have driven up the price of U.S. Copper on the expectation of tariffs after an announcement was made in February that an investigation would be conducted into import duties. COMEX copper prices reached an all-time high of $5.90 per lb after the announcement of the 50% levy, but fell on Friday by 1.4% to reach $5.51. This brings the COMEX premium over LME copper up to $2,532 per ton or 26%. Analysts said that the COMEX price was also affected by an overhang of inventory after traders sent roughly a year's supply of copper to the United States to avoid the tariff. Investors also faced uncertainty, including which products would be subject to the tariffs and whether certain countries could get exemptions. The Shanghai Futures Exchange's most traded copper contract edged up 0.05% to 78.430 yuan (10,937.87), though it ended the week with a loss of 2.05% after two consecutive weeks in which the contract had gained 2.8%. Other metals include LME aluminium, which fell by 0.4% to 2,598 per ton. Nickel also dropped 0.3%, to $15,230. Zinc lost 0.6%, to $2760. Lead was down by 0.7%, to $2029, and tin by 0.8%, to $33,305. Click here to see the latest news in metals.
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Goldman: BOJ may opt to sell ETFs gradually on the market.
Goldman Sachs announced on Friday that the Bank of Japan would sell its exchange-traded fund (ETF) holdings gradually in the market rather than opting for other ideas such as transferring them directly to government entities when it decided to unload their holdings in future. As part of its ultra-loose policy to revive a stagnant economy, the central bank bought ETFs from 2010 for a period of 13 years. The BOJ hasn't said when or how it will sell its ETFs worth 252 billion dollars, 37 trillion yen, and 70 trillion yen, which it purchased last year. The BOJ said that when it decided to sell the holdings it would follow three principles. It will dispose of ETFs for a price that is fair, avoids losses to the bank, and does so in a manner that causes minimal disruption in the market. Goldman Sachs reported that experts had suggested various options to unload the BOJ's ETF holdings, including transferring the ETFs to government entities or to the general public. The report stated that "however, the method which satisfies both three conditions will likely be a small-scale sale on the open markets over time." The report stated that to minimise BOJ's losses and their impact on the stock market, it would be reasonable for them to start selling ETFs in fiscal 2026-2027 and to sell at a pace of 600 billion to 1 trillion yen per year. Goldman's economists, including Akira Otani - a former BOJ executive who headed the financial markets department of the bank - compiled the report. BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda said that the central bank would need more time before deciding how to best unload its ETFs.
Japan re-signs long-term LNG contracts on AI boom and national energy plan
The emergence of artificial intelligence and the rising cost of cleaner energy, combined with a new energy plan and the rise in costs for cleaner energy, has brought Japan back into the limelight for LNG producers.
Japan, which is the second largest LNG importer in the world, has secured long-term deals with Qatar, and other buyers are also securing such agreements.
Japan's LNG exports have been falling for over a decade, as the nuclear power plants that were idled following the Fukushima catastrophe began to operate again and renewable energy sources grew.
The AI boom will require enormous power consumption from data centres. Japan's 7th Strategic Energy Plan, released in February, identified gas as an important source of energy even after the country achieves its goal of achieving zero net carbon emission by 2050.
Yukio KANI, CEO of JERA (Japan's largest power generator and LNG purchaser), said that the data centre boom is changing the curve. "If we need quick solutions for data centers, Japan needs LNG." This is an external change."
Kani stated that the rising costs of alternative fuels such as hydrogen and ammonia have also dimmed the prospects for these fuels.
He said, "Until two to three years ago, ammonia development was expected to be faster, but we now have paused." "In the last year or two, we have been switching back to LNG."
STILL IN THE MIX
According to the Japanese energy plan, if Japan meets its target of reducing emissions, it is expected that annual LNG demand will fall from 66 millions tons to 53-61 million tons by 2040. In a scenario with lagging decarbonisation technology, METI predicted that demand would rise to 74 millions tons.
Amid price volatility and the risk of supply disruption, the plan calls for public/private cooperation in order to secure long-term fuel contracts. Under Japan's previous decarbonisation-focussed energy plan, gas importers had hesitated to sign long-term contracts.
Takashi Uchida is the chairman of Japan Gas Association, and Tokyo Gas, the top city gas supplier.
Lachlan Clancy, energy partner of Herbert Smith Freehills Kramer, said: "It is very clear that LNG can play a significant role as a fuel for transition, and now it is firmly in the mix during this investment cycle."
According to the Organization for Cross-regional Coordination of Transmission Operators in Japan, Japan has also auctioned new gas-fired capacity to replace coal power plants. In the last two years, 7 gigawatts were awarded.
The organisation predicted that the capacity of LNG-fired power plants would increase to 85.75GW by 2034, from 79.98GW in 2024.
According to Japan's Energy Plan, power generation is expected to increase between 12% and 22 % from levels in 2023 up until between 1,100 terawatt hours and 1,200 Terawatt Hours by 2040. The International Energy Agency predicts that Japan's data centers will consume 80% more energy, or 15 TWh by 2030.
Morgan Stanley predicts that Japan's imports of LNG will reach 78 million tonnes in 2030, as the gas-fired generation of electricity increases amid rising costs for solar and wind energy.
'UNCERTAINTY AHEAD'
Since METI's energy plan was released, Osaka Gas has signed a 15 year pact, Kyushu Electric Power announced that it would be signing a long-term contract with Energy Transfer. JERA also inked four deals of 20 years with U.S. companies NextDecade Infrastructure, Cheniere Marketing, and Commonwealth LNG.
From late 2022 until early this year, Japanese purchasers announced three contracts longer than 10 years.
Masanori Odaka, analyst at Rystad Energy, predicts that more deals will be made soon as utilities look to replace volumes expiring for supply security, and to meet seasonal demand.
Last month, it was reported that JERA and Mitsui & Co were in discussions for a long-term supply of electricity from QatarEnergy’s North Field Expansion Project.
There is still uncertainty about Japan's LNG demand, mainly because of its inability to meet its carbon neutrality goals and the pace at which it restarts nuclear plants.
Importers have increased their trading operations to address this issue and are now pursuing flexible contracts.
Tokyo Gas' Uchida said that, with the government providing multiple future scenarios it was no longer possible to give a definitive forecast for energy demand and supply. This highlights the uncertainty in the near future.
(source: Reuters)