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TC Energy's oil pipeline spin-off faces challenges in bet on US Gulf

TC Energy's. planned oil pipeline spinoff is a bet that it can. Supply more Canadian crude to U.S. Gulf of Mexico refiners. the endeavor faces stiff competition and will carry high debt. when it launches.

The South Bow spin-off, which TC investors will vote on June. 4, will assist Calgary, Alberta-based TC lower its own high financial obligation. load and concentrate on moving natural gas.

South Bow's entry comes as Canada, the fourth-largest international. oil producer, gains expanded choices for moving crude. Rival. Trans Mountain opened its expansion recently to draw. more barrels to the U.S. West Coast and Asia.

South Bow also deals with larger Canadian rival Enbridge. , which is pursuing its own U.S. Gulf method and owns. in Texas the biggest U.S. oil storage and export terminal.

Gulf exports are not a strong choice, however, for South. Bow, which has access to third-party marine facilities, said. Hillary Stevenson, senior director of energy market intelligence. at research organization IIR Energy.

The Keystone pipeline, South Bow's signature property, ships. 622,000 barrels per day (bpd) from Canada to Nebraska, where it. branches off to the Midwest and Cushing, Oklahoma. From Cushing,. the Marketlink pipeline carries 750,000 bpd of crude to Texas. refineries.

Carriers have actually reserved 94% of Keystone under long-lasting. contract, leaving remaining capability for the area market.

South Bow's capital concerns will be repaying financial obligation,. organic growth and investor returns, its incoming president,. Bevin Wirzba, stated on a quarterly teleconference on Friday.

Wirzba, who declined an interview demand, has previously. stated the Gulf provides remarkable chance, citing extra. need last year on Marketlink and prospective joint. infrastructure jobs.

U.S. Gulf functional refining capacity, nevertheless, is set for. a net 2% decline by 2025 as the closure of LyondellBasell's. 263,776 bpd Houston refinery next year removes more. output than incremental expansions at other facilities will add,. Stevenson said.

That leaves South Bow's plan to increase its part of the. medium and heavy sour crude fine-tuned in the Gulf dependent on. displacing other foreign providers.

Construction of Mexico's most recent refinery uses just such an. chance when Pemex's 340,000-bpd Olmeca plant comes online. this year, processing more Maya crude locally instead of on. the U.S. Gulf Coast.

South Bow is positioning itself to provide the missing Maya. barrels, Stevenson stated.

HIGH DEBT

South Bow will likewise be constrained by high debt from its. start. The spin-off will release C$ 7.9 billion ($ 5.75 billion) in. debt to redeem debt that currently beings in TC and anticipates to. carry financial obligation below 5 times its EBITDA at spin.

U.S. midstream rivals usually carry less than 4. times debt to EBITDA, stated Rob Thummel, senior portfolio manager. at Tortoise Capital, which owns TC shares.

They're going to be more of a slower-growth type of entity,. not necessarily an aggressive acquirer, he stated. ( High debt). limits your ability to grow.

South Bow plans to provide 2-3% compound annual development,. underpinned by a 16-mile (26-km) unrefined pipeline tying into. International Petroleum Corp's Blackrod oil sands. task by 2026, TC has said.

South Bow's properties and capital make it a strong company. and capital costs requirements are modest, said Brianne. Gardner, senior wealth supervisor at Speed Investment Partners. Pipelines likewise hold worth as they may end up being harder to. integrate in the face of environmental pressure, she stated.

(source: Reuters)