Latest News

Brazil coffee faces El Nino headwinds, but crops more resilient

According to the Brazilian Coffee Industry Association (Abic), El Nino may reduce Brazil's record coffee harvest by as much as a fifth due to excessive heat and irregular rain.

The state-run crop agency,?Conab, has forecast that this year's total production of arabica beans and canephora will be a record 66.7 million 60 kilogram (132.3 lb), with the latter including varieties such as robusta and Conilon.

Celirio Da Silva, Abic's executive director, warned that a deterioration in weather conditions during an El Nino cycle could?dramatically decrease production.

In a normal season, a loss of 15 to 20 percent would be expected. In the current situation, this is bad news," said he in an interview.

The coffee industry is better prepared for this El Nino than it was during previous episodes, thanks to the technological advancements that have produced a more resistant crop.

Silva said, "We have made significant progress and are now able to harvest?and plant more efficiently." In recent years, coffee farmers have bolstered their ability to mitigate climate risk by rapidly expanding irrigation system. They've invested heavily in this technology to reduce their dependency on increasingly unpredictable rainfall caused by climate change.

El Nino will disrupt the biological cycle of the crop, especially during the flowering period, in the second half 2026. Experts say that excessive heat and irregular rain can cause uneven and unproductive flowering.

Wellis Caixeta is the purchasing manager for Minas Gerais-based Expocacer. He said that irregular ripening can cause quality issues and make harvesting more difficult.

El Nino 2023/24, coupled with heatwaves, irregular rainfall and other factors, has reduced Brazil's coffee?crop for 2024 from the initial government estimate of 58.8 million to 54.2 millions 60-kg bags. Despite arabica having a positive biennial cycle the output only rose by 0.2% while conilon productivity dropped 5.9%.

El Nino could explain certain anomalies such as the unusual rainfall that occurred in Brazil's southeast over the last month.

Expocacer estimates rainfall above 50 millimeters occurred in arabica-growing areas about 40 days prior to harvesting. This caused significant amounts of coffee cherries to drop to the ground and lowered the quality of the beans.

Espirito Santo in Brazil, the largest producer of canephora, also experienced irregular weather conditions this year. There were longer intervals between rain and shorter, more intense showers, according to Luiz Carl Bastianello, President of Cooabriel - Brazil's biggest canephora cooperative.

Bastianello, a state grower, said that they are worried about El Nino, which could cause excessive heat and prolong the dry period through January 2027. This would disrupt bean filling.

Bastianello stated that it was too early to predict the impact of El Nino on 2027.

Heat is the greatest risk factor for crop losses. Canephora's metabolism slows down above 27 degrees Celsius (80.66degF). At 35degC it completely stops. He added that the damage can be greater than the lack of water itself. The conditions have been better in the north of Brazil where temperatures and rain have remained within normal seasonal ranges. Farmers in Rondonia expect to harvest a record?3 millions 60-kg bags (132.3 lb), which is higher than the crop agency Conab?s forecast of 2.77million bags.

Juan Travain of the state coffee association Caferon said that El Nino's heat and drought will not have as much impact on Rondonian robusta crops as it would on regions producing arabica.

"Coffee's temperature is very sensitive, but almost all robusta plantations have irrigation, and many also use water-based systems for cooling. "Many arabica farms are still without irrigation", he added.

(source: Reuters)