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Is India the ultimate "anti-AI" trade? : Raychaudhuri
India is emerging as a haven for those who are escaping the wreckage of Asia's AI stock boom. Indian stocks' lack of direct AI exposure, whether to creators or large language models or semiconductors and chip manufacturers, dampened foreign investors enthusiasm for the country's shares for most of 2025 and 2026. Instead, money flooded into South Korea's and Taiwan's tech saturated markets. This summer, the trend has changed. Since mid-June equities have fallen in South Korea and Taiwan, reflecting growing concerns about the durability and profitability of massive AI capital investments. India's benchmark index is up 5%, as investors have shifted their money to a perceived anti-AI trade. This is a small change. In the last 12 months, benchmark indices for South Korea and Taiwan have risen by around 90% and 80% respectively, while India's index has fallen 5%. This recent rotation could be more than a defensive move. It comes at an advantageous time for India as the economy is experiencing several tailwinds. India is also finding its place within the AI ecosystem. This could mean that it's not an anti-AI trade, but rather a less concentrated tech bet. Market tailwinds Recent macroeconomic data from India have been encouraging in several ways. The acceleration of bank loans and fixed asset investment signals a pickup in consumption and investment. Globally, the annualized growth in real gross domestic product of 7.8% for the first quarter led to expectations that the World Bank's and IMF's growth forecasts of 6.6% and 6,4% respectively for 2026 will be exceeded. The foreign portfolio investment market is also reviving. While overseas investors had sold $29 billion worth of "Indian equity" in the year's first half, they bought $1.7 billion during the first weeks of July. In the previous month, foreign investment in Indian fixed-income securities had recovered. It was probably due to a number of government policies including the exemption from withholding tax and capital gain tax for foreigners on government securities. A second measure to reduce the foreign exchange hedging cost for Indian commercial banks servicing foreign accounts will likely mobilize around $50 billion of deposits from non-resident Indians. These inflows could, in turn help stabilize the volatile Indian rupee. The rupee is down 6.5% against the U.S. Dollar so far in 2026. It briefly recovered 2.6% following the U.S. - Iran ceasefire in march before falling again in late summer. The consensus earnings of India's biggest companies have been rising across several sectors. According to FactSet's estimates, the consensus earnings per share for India's financials and telecommunications sectors, as well as the process industries, consumer services, and basic materials, have all been raised in the last month. This reverses a downward trend that has been consistent over the last two years. THE ANTI-AI PLAY India's "anti AI" label may be too simplistic as the technological revolution does not bypass the country. India's call center and back-office industry, which is a large sector in India, is a highly susceptible to AI disruption. But that's just one part of the AI equation. India is becoming one of the most important locations for AI deployment. According to ADP Research Institute, AI usage is on the rise in Indian cities due to a large, multilingual population and widespread smartphone access. Over 40% of Indian employees use AI daily, which is double the global average. Similarly, global AI providers are increasing their investment in India's infrastructure. This includes high-performance server, power transmission and generation equipment, and industrial refrigeration. Google, Microsoft, and Amazon will spend a total of $57 billion on tech infrastructure in India over the next five-year period. Adani Group, Microsoft, and Amazon will each invest $100 billion, and Blackstone $30 billion. These numbers show the size of the India market. It is home to the most populous nation in the world, with a median aged under 30. The appropriate ?categorization of the Indian market's relationship with AI is therefore not "anti-AI" but "anti-AI-concentration". Not a home run yet Even though things look better for Indian stocks, a sustained rally by no means is a sure thing. The recent dismantling and resumption in military conflict between the U.S. and Iran, coupled with a surge in oil prices is a reminder to large energy importers such as India of the macroeconomic risk they face. Brent crude prices soared by over 30% after Middle East hostilities erupted again in early-July, and the Indian Rupee dropped against the dollar. Although oil prices have since?fallen, further volatility is expected as a lasting resolution to the U.S.-Iran conflict seems far away. Crude prices are not the only thing pushing up 'India's consumer price index. Food prices were a major factor in the 4.4% reading for June, which is still above the RBI's midpoint medium-term target of 4.0%. This inflationary pressure could intensify due to India's weakening monsoon. This could, in turn trigger a rate-hiking process by the Reserve Bank of India. Indian?equities had a good few weeks. If this can be translated into a "true" shift in investor position, it will depend on the level of concern investors have about AI-concentrated market and how the recent technological and geopolitical turmoil has affected India. You like this column? Check out Open Interest, your new essential source for global financial commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, X and X. 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In Nigeria, gunmen abduct and kill 12 women and children
Witnesses said that armed men killed at least 12 people and abducted women, children, and elderly residents of a village in the northwestern state of Sokoto. One resident said that six members of a family were killed when the attackers set their home on fire. Locals claim that the 'gunmen' entered Lajinge village at 11 pm on Saturday night and attacked its residents until?3 am on Sunday morning. In the region, bandits - heavily armed gangs - are known to raid villages and kidnap people for ransom, as well as steal livestock. "They killed at least 12 people, injured another four, and abducted women, children, after rustling many animals," Auwal Hassan, a resident, told? By phone, Auwal?Hassan told?ajungidankenzeug? by phone bytéphonesprachesprechsprach via phone. telefonisch Sokoto police spokesperson Ahmed Rufai confirmed that the police were investigating and would be providing?updates? later. The attack came a week after bandits killed?at least 24 farmers in the neighbouring state of Zamfara. (Reporting and writing by Ahmed Kingimi; Editing by Andrew Heavens).
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Holcim sells Philippines unit to Huaxin for $807 million
Holcim Group, a Swiss building materials company, announced on Sunday that it intends to sell its Philippines operations to Huaxin Building Materials of China in a deal worth at least $807,000,000. Holcim is selling an initial 68% stake at $527 million. The remainder will be sold in the following three to five year period for a price minimum of $280million. Holcim stated that this would result in an overall valuation $807 million. However, the figure may rise "based upon incremental value creation over?this time period". This sale is Holcim's largest divestment, since the $1 billion deal it made with Huaxin Cement in December 2024, when they sold their Nigeria business. The money raised from the sale of the Philippines' business will be used for large acquisitions as well as?further investments in Holcim’s existing business. The 'Swiss firm has focused more on Europe and Latin America as well as North Africa and Australia in its reshaping of its business. Holcim has identified acquisitions as an important part of its growth strategy. The company plans to make 15 deals by 2026. Holcim said last year that it had between $3.72 billion and $4.95 billion Swiss Francs to spend on acquisitions until 2030. It could also raise an additional?6 billion Swiss Francs through divestments, extra borrowings for large deals, and share buybacks. Holcim CEO Miljan Gutovic said on Friday that the company has a "very strong pipeline" of projects for acquisitions in Latin America, Europe, as well as parts of Asia, Middle East, and Africa. He also stated that they were considering large deals. He said that the company was constantly evaluating its landscape from walling, flooring and roofing solution companies to the larger markets. Gutovic said: "I am confident that we will have a powerful momentum on the M&A side in the second half this year."
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Israeli strikes kill 9 in Gaza; Israeli minister says there is no deal to stop attacks
Israeli airstrikes in Gaza continued for a second day in a row on Sunday. At least nine Palestinians were killed, despite U.S. president Donald Trump's?announcement that a breakthrough had been made in efforts to implement the Gaza ceasefire accord of last year. Israeli Energy Minister Eli Cohen stated on Sunday that no agreement had been reached to stop the attacks on Gaza. He also said that Israel, which controls over 70% of Gaza, should take control of Gaza in its entirety. Cohen is a minister in the security cabinet of Prime Minister Netanyahu, a group of ministers who oversee security and diplomatic policies. Palestinian health officials confirmed that Israeli warplanes conducted separate strikes in different parts of the Gaza City enclave, including the central city of Deir al-Balah and the southern area Khan Younis. According to medics, a man and his spouse were killed, and four others were injured, in an airstrike that hit an apartment in Deir al-Balah. Two more people including a child were also killed in another strike in Gaza City. Around dawn, a father, mother and their nine-year-old child were killed after a strike was made on a home in the Mawasi neighborhood of Khan Younis. A second person was also killed in northern Gaza, near Jabalia. Israeli military claimed that the attacks in Deir al-Balah targeted two Hamas commanders from its elite "Nukhba force". The Gaza City and Jabalia attacks also targeted "military operators" but the military said it was still reviewing the situation. Since the ceasefire in October, Israeli airstrikes have killed at least 1,230 Palestinians. Trump said that there was a breakthrough on Thursday after Hamas agreed disarming under an initiative backed by the United States to implement a ceasefire agreement signed last year in Egypt. Trump's Board of Peace is the U.S. body that oversees the ceasefire. They published a 15 point roadmap on Friday, outlining the final steps to implement the agreement. ROADMAP YET TO BE ?IMPLEMENTED The roadmap is still not implemented. Hamas said that it would only hand over weapons to be stored after Israel ceases military operations, and withdraws its troops in accordance with the agreement of last year. A senior Israeli official said that the military would not be able to leave its current positions until Hamas underwent "genuine dearmament". Cohen, speaking to Army Radio, said he didn't believe that Hamas would disarm but rather try and hide its weapons. Itamar Bin-Gvir, the National Security Minister of Israel, has described it as 'inacceptable' and stated that Israel should continue to assassinate Hamas leaders. Mohammed Dahlan, a former senior Fatah official based in the United Arab Emirates said on Facebook that Jared Kushner was Trump's son in law and a senior advisor involved in the U.S. Initiative. He had told him Jared Kushner would be working with the Israeli side in order to stop the attacks against Gaza. Dahlan said that contacts were being maintained with the U.S. to ensure the agreement is fully implemented. He added that the success of the agreement now depends on Israel ending its daily attacks against Gaza. The U.S. State Department has been contacted for comment regarding Dahlan's remarks. Israel did not immediately comment. Reporting by Nidal al-Mughrabi in Cairo, Hatem Maher and Steven Scheer. Editing by Rod Nickel & Alex Richardson
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Governors claim that Ukrainian drones have killed two people in Russia and struck a Wildberries warehouse.
Officials in the region said that Ukrainian drone strikes had killed two people overnight. The targets included a warehouse owned by 'Wildberries', Russia's biggest online retailer. The Russian Defence Ministry reported that it had shot down 635 Ukrainian drones in the middle of the night. Samara Governor Vyacheslav Federishchev confirmed that drones from Kyiv attacked a Wildberries storage facility in the Samara area, about 800 km (500 mi) away from Ukraine's advanced military positions. The governor said that there were no injuries and that the fire, which had started as a result, was being extinguished. Ukrainian forces are expanding their strikes against economic and energy targets in Russia, aiming to weaken Moscow's capacity to continue its more than four-year old war in Ukraine. Since July 18, they have attacked around a dozen Wildberries websites in an attempt to disrupt operations. The company is often referred to as Russia's Amazon. Roman Busargin, the governor of Engels said that a strike on a building in the neighboring Saratov region killed two people. He said that civil infrastructure had been damaged in both the city of Saratov and Engels. Saratov, the city that hosts a major refinery of oil, as well as Engels, the home to a military base, have both been repeatedly attacked by Ukraine in recent years. Radiy Khabirov said that the air defence units of the Bashkortostan region in?Russia had foiled a massive drone assault?on industrial installations. He said that one of 'the drones' was shot down over the industrial area in the regional capital Ufa, and a fire is being extinguished.
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Holcim sells Philippines unit to Huaxin for $807 million
Holcim Group, a Swiss building materials company, announced on Sunday that it intends to sell its Philippines business to China’s Huaxin Building Materials. The deal could generate at least $807 million. Holcim is selling a 68% initial stake at $527 million. The remainder will be sold in the next 3 to 5 years for $290 million. Holcim stated that the total valuation would be $807 million. However, this figure could increase "based on incremental values created during?this time period". The money raised will be used for?large acquisitions as well as further investments in Holcim’s existing business. After spinning off their North American operations last year, the Swiss company is reshaping its business and focusing more on Europe, Latin America. North Africa, and Australia. Holcim has identified acquisitions as a critical part of its growth strategy. The company plans to close 15 deals by 2026. Holcim said last year that it has 3 to 4 billion Swiss Francs ($3.72 to $4.95billion) available to spend on acquisitions until 2030. It could also raise an additional 6 billion Swiss?francs through divestments, extra borrowing and share buybacks. Holcim CEO Miljan Gutovic said on Friday that the company had a "very good pipeline" of projects for acquisitions in Latin America, Europe, Middle East, Africa and parts of Asia. He also stated that large deals were being considered. He told analysts that the company was constantly screening its landscape. "From walling and flooring solutions companies to roofing, we believe that there are some attractive markets," he said after the second-quarter results. Gutovic said: "I am confident that the M&A market will be?in a good place in the second half this year." ($1 = 0.8074 Swiss Francs) (Reporting from John Revill in Zurich, and Sumedha mukherjee in Bengaluru. Editing by Kate Mayberry & Joe Bavier).
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Sources say that OPEC+ will increase its quota in September, followed by a pause.
OPEC+ 'plans to approve a quota for production increase of around 188,000?"barrels a day" on Sunday. After that, it will halt further increases in output, according to sources, until the voluntary cuts are completed. Saudi Arabia, Russia and Kuwait are the core members of OPEC+. They have been increasing their monthly production quotas since most of this year. These increases are largely a paper exercise, due to the disruptions caused by the wars in Ukraine and Iran. One OPEC+ 'delegate' and an OPEC+'source, both of whom said that the group would pause production increases after September as it faces difficult discussions over new production quotas. The September increase will complete a phased rollback on a 1,65 million bpd cut in supply originally agreed upon in 2023 when?the group included the United Arab Emirates which left OPEC last May. OPEC+ has been reviewing the oil production capacities of its members to determine quotas for 2027. After September, OPEC+ 'cuts' will continue to be in effect for a period of approximately?2 millions barrels per day until 2022 when the group decides on how to distribute extra?supply to its members. Iraq and other members of the group are pushing for higher quotas that reflect their increased capacity. Reporting by Alex Lawler and Ahmad Ghaddar, Writing by Dmitry Zhdannikov, Editing by Joe Bavier
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Governors claim that Ukrainian drones have killed two people in Russia and struck a Wildberries warehouse.
Officials in the region said that Ukrainian drones killed two people overnight in regions along Russia's Volga river. The strikes hit targets such as a warehouse owned by Wildberries, Russia’s largest online retailer. The Russian Defence Ministry reported that it had shot down 635 Ukrainian drones in the night. Kyiv's drones targeted a Wildberries warehouse located in the Samara Region, approximately 800 km (500 mi) away from Ukraine's "most advanced military positions" on Ukrainian territory, according to regional governor?Vyacheslav Federishchev. He said that the information about potential casualties is still being clarified. Ukrainian forces are launching more strikes inside Russia, as they intensify their attacks on energy and economic targets. They hope to weaken Moscow's ability to wage its four-year long war in Ukraine. Since July 18, they have targeted about a dozen Wildberries websites in an attempt to disrupt operations. The company is a key component of Russia's consumer economy, often described as Amazon's Russian answer. Roman Busargin, the governor of Engels said that a strike on a building in the nearby Saratov region killed two people. Both in Engels and in Saratov's city, civil infrastructure was damaged. Saratov, the home of a major refinery and Engels, which is a military airbase, were both repeatedly attacked by Ukraine in recent years. Ukraine has not yet commented on the recent strikes.
Indonesian weather agency revised outlook for shorter dry season by 2025
Most areas in Indonesia will see a shorter-than-expected dry season this year due to higher-than-normal precipitation thus far, the country's weather agency said, which is expected to boost the rice crop in Southeast Asia's largest economy.
The Indonesian Meteorology and Geophysics Agency had predicted that the dry season would be normal this year. It began in April for most areas and reached its peak from June to August.
In a weekend statement, Dwikorita Karanawati, the head of the agency, said: "Our prediction shows there was an anomaly with higher-than-normal rainfall... This becomes the basis for predicting the delayed dry season in this year."
Dwikorita, who said that the longer wet period is expected to benefit farmers of rice because of the water supply remaining available, added that as of early June only 19% have seen the dry seasons begin.
The statistics bureau reported that Indonesia's rice production in the period January to July is expected to increase by 14.93% annually to 21,76 million metric tonnes. The Indonesian rice production was to be 32 million tons in this year. This is higher than the 30.62 million tons of last year.
Dwikorita stated that higher-than-normal rain is expected to fall in the southern parts of Sumatra, Java, Bali, East Nusa Tenggara, and West Nusa Tenggara Provinces.
She added that the dry season would first affect some parts of Sumatra and Borneo.
Climate change is causing unpredictable weather patterns, and the agency has urged local governments to prepare for this.
The agency reported that heavy rains fell in certain parts of Indonesia between January and March. In early March, torrential rains caused floods up to three metres high in Jakarta, Indonesia's capital. Thousands were forced to evacuate. (Reporting and editing by Gibran Pshimam, Vijay Kishore and Ananda Teresia)
(source: Reuters)