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US Government forecaster expects neutral weather to persist

The United States Climate Prediction Center announced on Thursday that neutral conditions caused by the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are likely to persist and develop through the summer in the Northern Hemisphere, with more than 50% probability through August-October.

Why it's important

La Nina is a part of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation climate cycle, which affects water temperatures throughout the Pacific Ocean.

ENSO neutral is when the water temperature stays near average and the crop yields are more stable.

CONTEXT

The Japanese weather bureau stated earlier this week that there are no signs yet of El Nino or La Nina occurring and they will not be during the summer in the Northern Hemisphere.

The Tropical Storm Risk forecast a hurricane season in 2025 similar to climate norms from 1991 to 2020, with the tropical waters of the North Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea expected to be at or slightly above average by September 2025.

KEY QUOTES

Jason Nicholls, AccuWeather’s international lead forecaster, said that the transition from La Nina into neutral is usually accompanied by a decrease in rainfall in India. This is especially true in parts of central and western India.

"Southwest Europe and Southeast Europe will trend dryer heading into summer, but the soil moisture that was provided by a rainy winter and spring is likely to limit any negative impact on crops in Spain and Portugal... Over the next few months, Brazil's croplands are expected to be dry." (Reporting by Rahul Paswan in Bengaluru; editing by Barbara Lewis)

(source: Reuters)