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Dollar strengthens as US trade negotiations focus on US stock markets.
On Monday, major stock indexes declined while the dollar gained against the most important currencies as investors waited for the next trade announcements from the White House. Treasury Bills with a longer expiration date yields edged higher. United States Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced on Monday that he would make several announcements about trade in the next 48-hours. A deadline of Wednesday has been set to complete trade agreements. The higher the rates, scheduled The new law will take effect on August 1, 2018. "We are down (in the stocks) after the weekend and it is a crucial week for the tariffs," Peter Cardillo said, chief market analyst at Spartan Capital Securities, New York. Investors are cautious because they don't know what will happen in the future with trade deals. Tariffs Prices are expected to rise and growth to slow, but uncertainty about the final policies could be more of a drag on businesses as they postpone making decisions. S&P 500 companies will soon begin to report results for the second quarter. In April, U.S. president Donald Trump announced a base tariff of 10% on most countries. The "reciprocal rates" could be as high as 50%. He also warned that the levy could be as high as "60% or 70%" and threatened to add an additional 10% for countries who align themselves with "Anti-American Policies" of the BRICS Group of Brazil, Russia India and China. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 313.82 points or 0.70% to 44,508.71. The S&P 500 declined 40.14 points or 0.64% to 6,239.40. And the Nasdaq Composite lost 148.98 or 0.72% to 20,452.90. The MSCI index of global stocks fell by 3.84 points (0.41%) to 921.89 while the pan-European STOXX 600 rose by 0.37%. The yield on benchmark U.S. 10 year notes rose 3.1 basis points in the last day to 4.372%. The yield on interest-rate-sensitive two-year notes was unchanged for the day, at 3.882%. The dollar index is a measure of the value of the dollar. Measures to be taken The currency rose by 0.34% against six major counterparts to 97.294, briefly reaching a week-high. The euro fell 0.37% to $1.1735. The dollar gained 0.92% against the Japanese yen to reach 145.88. The minutes of the Federal Reserve's last meeting are due this week. Investors are trying to determine how many times they expect the Fed to reduce interest rates in this year, after Thursday's jobs data showed that employers had added more jobs than forecast. At a meeting scheduled for Tuesday, it is expected that the Reserve Bank of Australia will cut rates by a quarter-point to 3.60%. This would be the third rate cut in this cycle. The markets predict rates of either 2.85% or 3.10 percent. U.S. crude oil rose 0.6%, to $67.40 per barrel. Brent was up 1% to $68.98 a barrel.
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Search teams facing more rain as they mourn dozens of dead at Texas girls' camp
The Christian All-Girls Camp in Central Texas announced on Monday that 27 girls and their counselors perished during the devastating flooding of the 4th of July weekend. Emergency responders are still searching for missing persons and face the possibility of further heavy rains and storms. Officials have confirmed that the death toll is 78. This includes 28 children. They also said that it will likely rise as teams search through the mud-covered riverbanks, and fly over flood-ravaged landscape. Kerr County Sheriff Larry Leitha confirmed that the majority of the dead are in the riverfront Hill Country Texas city of Kerrville. In less than an hour, torrential rains at dawn transformed the Guadalupe River in Kerrville into a raging river. Camp Mystic on the Guadalupe River, a Christian girls' retreat that has been around for nearly 100 years, was ravaged by the waters. In a Monday statement, the camp said: "Our hearts are broken along with our families who are experiencing this unimaginable tragedies." Multiple media, including the Austin American-Statesman, reported that Richard "Dick' Eastland 70, co-owner and Director of Camp Mystic died while trying to save children from his camp in the flood. According to the website of the camp, Eastland has owned the camp with his wife Tweety Eastland since 1974. George Eastland wrote on Instagram that "if he was not going to die naturally, this was the only way, saving the daughters that he loved and cared about," Eastland’s grandson. Allison Santorelli is a National Weather Service meteorologist at the Weather Prediction Center of College Park, Maryland. She said that in Hill Country, where the worst flooding took place, an additional 2 to 4 inches would fall. Santorelli stated that new flooding could be dangerous due to the soil saturated with water and the debris in the river. The weather service has issued a flood warning for the area until 7 pm on Monday. On Thursday, state emergency management officials warned that, in advance of the Fourth of July holiday, parts of central Texas could be subject to heavy rains and flash flooding based on National Weather Service predictions. Confusion of disaster Dalton Rice, the City Manager, said that twice as much rainfall as had been predicted fell over two branches of Guadalupe, just upstream from the fork, where they converge. This water then rushed into a single channel of the river, which cuts through Kerrville. Rice, along with other officials including Governor Greg Abbott said that the floods, as well as the accuracy of weather forecasts, warning systems and their circumstances, will be examined once the immediate situation is under control. Search-and-rescue efforts were ongoing around the clock with hundreds of emergency workers on the ground tackling a variety of challenges. Martin, a reporter, told Sunday's reporters: "It is hot, there is mud, people are moving debris and there are snakes." Thomas Suelzar said that the Texas Military Department's airborne search assets include eight helicopters, and a remotely-piloted MQ-9 Reaper equipped with advanced sensors to conduct surveillance and reconnaissance. The sudden storm that dumped 15 inches of rainfall across the region about 85 miles (140 kilometers) northwest of San Antonio, caused more than 850 people to be rescued. Some were clinging onto trees. Department of Homeland Security reported that the Federal Emergency Management Agency activated Sunday and deployed resources to Texas following President Donald Trump's major disaster declaration. U.S. Coast Guard planes and helicopters are assisting in search and rescue operations. SCALING BACK THE FEDERAL RESPONSE TO DISASTER Trump announced on Sunday that he will visit the scene of the disaster, most likely on Friday. He previously announced plans to reduce the federal government's response to natural disasters and leave it to the states to take on more responsibility. Experts questioned whether the Trump administration's cuts to federal employees, including the agency overseeing the National Weather Service (NWS), led officials to fail to accurately predict flood severity and issue warnings before the storm. Former NOAA director Rick Spinrad stated that Trump's administration had overseen the thousands of job reductions from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the parent agency for the National Weather Service. This left many weather offices with inadequate staffing. Trump refused to answer when asked Sunday whether federal budget cuts had hampered disaster response efforts or left important job vacancies within the Weather Service, under Trump's supervision. He referred to his Democratic predecessor Joe Biden, saying, "That water issue, that's all, and that really was the Biden set-up." "But I would not blame Biden either." "I would say that this is a catastrophe of 100 years." Kristi Noem, Homeland Security Secretary at Fox News, said that on Monday there didn't appear to be any specific malfunction in the National Weather Service system. She said that the alerts were sent out hours before the flood. However, the rapid rise in water levels and the speed at which they occurred was unheard of in this region. Additional reporting by Marco Bello in Comfort, Texas, Sandra Stojanovic, Rich McKay, Alexandra Alper in Atlanta, Tim Reid, Deborah Gembara, Nathan Howard, in Morristown, New Jersey, Ryan Jones, Bhargavacharya, in Toronto, Brendan O'Brien, in Chicago, and Nathan Layne, in New York. Writing and editing by Stephen Coates and Joseph Ax.
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Dollar strengthens after tariff extension, causing gold to fall by one week's low.
Gold prices fell to their lowest level in a week on Monday, as the dollar strengthened and traders digested U.S. president Donald Trump's decision to extend his tariff deadline from July 9 to August 1, and that the U.S. was close to several deals. At 1302 GMT, spot gold fell 0.8% to $3,307,87 an ounce after reaching its lowest level since June 30, at $3 296.09. U.S. Gold Futures fell 0.7% to $3318. Gold priced in dollars is more expensive to buyers of other currencies due to the stronger dollar. The dollar has increased by 0.2% against a basket other major currencies. Daniel Ghali is a commodity strategist with TD Securities. He said, "The market volume remains quiet, and the price action probably just reflects the latest economic data but is also beginning to look ahead to potential trade deals that may be announced." The Federal Reserve's unlikely decision to reduce interest rates earlier than previously anticipated was cemented by the stronger-than-expected U.S. employment data last week. This week, the Fed will release the minutes of its latest policy meeting as well as speeches from several Fed officials to gain more insight into the central bank’s policy direction. Official data released by the People's Bank of China on Monday showed that China's central banks added gold to their reserves for the eighth consecutive month. Zain Vawda is an analyst at MarketPulse, by OANDA. He said that the PBoC has been diversifying its foreign exchange reserves in particular. An increase in geopolitical risks and uncertainty may accelerate this process. Other precious metals saw spot silver fall 1.6% to $35.32 an ounce. Platinum fell 2.9% to $1.350.97, and palladium dropped 3% to $1,000.65.
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Konstantin Strukov is the Russian gold billionaire who faces asset seizure in Russia
The Russian state is seeking to take over the majority of Konstantin Strukov’s stake in Uzhuralzoloto, a major gold producer. The Sovetsky District Court, in the Urals town of Chelyabinsk, will hear a case on July 8, which is the latest in an ongoing series of seizures of assets by the Russian government. Who is KONSTANTIN STRUKOV? Strukov was born in the Russian Orenburg Region in 1958. He began working in mining immediately after graduating Magnitogorsk State Technical University. Uzhuralzoloto, founded in 1976 as a Soviet company, was privatised after the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1993. Strukov took over the enterprise in 1997 when production had nearly stopped. The Svetlinsky Gold Deposit, the largest gold deposit in the Urals region, was transferred to a business with the same name. Strukov acquired the assets of the company and shares of a new firm for 162,600 roubles. Production was restarted after that thanks to the gold deposits they had acquired in Khakassia, Krasnoyarsk and other regions. UGC increased its annual production from 3 tons to 10 tons between 2004 and 2012. The company owns 17 core assets, and has eight processing facilities spread across two regional bases. Due to the closure of some mines at the regulator's request, production in 2024 will fall by 17%. This amounts to 10,6 tons. UGC anticipates that production will increase to up to 14.4 tons this year. Strukov's fortune, estimated by Forbes to be $1.9 billion by Forbes, was put under sanctions by certain Western countries, including Britain. They did this after Moscow sent troops into Ukraine. Britain said that his role as director of a Russian extractives company supported the Russian government. Strukov is a member of the legislative assembly in Chelyabinsk Region since 2000. He is the deputy speaker of Chelyabinsk Region's Parliament and a member the ruling United Russia Party. What is the case against STRUKOV The Chelyabinsk Court reported that the deputy prosecutor of Russia had filed a lawsuit accusing Strukov and other individuals of acquiring property "through corrupt means". The statement did not provide any further details. However, Russian news agencies, citing an official source in law enforcement, reported that prosecutors are seeking to convert Strukov’s entire stake at UGC into state property. Citing court documents, the Kommersant newspaper reported that prosecutors believed Strukov had used bankruptcy procedures and his position as an official of state to transfer assets to UGC. Kommersant reports that searches were carried out at UGC's offices last week for alleged violations to environmental legislation and industrial safety regulations. Citing court documents, the newspaper reported that Strukov could have 200 billion roubles in assets confiscated, and that he used an offshore Cypriot company to hide his involvement with UGC. Strukov was contacted by UGC for a comment. Strukov owned 67.8% of UGC according to data from the company as of 2024. Gazprombank's company bought 22% of UGC shares late last year. The remaining 10% was floated at the Moscow Exchange between 2023 and 2024. After a two-session decline of almost 30%, the central bank suspended UGC's Moscow listed shares trading on Friday. In a blog aimed at investors, the company stated that Friday protecting minority shareholder rights was its top priority. A commenter anonymously commented on the post: "The stock market is more volatile than the casino." What is the impact on Russia's business climate? Since Russia's troops entered Ukraine in February 20, 2022, foreign companies have faced the threat of state seizing their assets. However, Moscow has been increasingly focused on domestic assets, citing domestic security and strategic stability. Why Strukov and UGC was targeted is not known. Moscow sends mixed messages about foreign investment. It wants to portray Russia as an attractive destination for foreign capital while at the same time arresting business leaders. Since the beginning of the conflict with Ukraine, foreign investment has dropped sharply. Vadim Moschkovich, billionaire founder and CEO of Rusagro - Russia's largest agriculture company - has been in pre trial detention since March, on charges of embezzlement, which he denies.
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Royal Gold acquires Sandstorm Gold in Canada for $3.5 billion
Royal Gold announced on Monday that it would acquire Sandstorm Gold, a Canadian rival company, for approximately $3.5 billion. This will help the royal firm to strengthen its position in North America during a period when gold prices are at record highs. Sandstorm shares listed in the U.S. rose 9.6% after this news, while Royal Gold stock fell 4.1% premarket. Companies that collect gold royalties generate revenue through the collection of a percentage from mining operations. They do this in exchange for payments up front or investments. Royal Gold will receive revenue from an additional 40 mining assets, which are expected to produce between 65,000 and 80,000 gold-equivalent ounces this year. This is at a time when the bullion market has experienced a surge of safe-haven flows due to President Donald Trump’s tariff policies. Royal Gold, a Colorado-based company, will exchange 0.0625 shares per Sandstorm share. The offer represents a 16.7% premium to Sandstorm's Friday closing price on the New York Stock Exchange. After the completion of the transaction, Sandstorm shareholders and Royal Gold shareholders together will own approximately 23% of the combined business. Royal Gold will remain a gold-focused business after the acquisition, with 75% coming from precious metals. The company said that 41% of the production would come from mines in the U.S., Canada and other countries where mining has been a welcomed and established contributor to local economies. Royal Gold announced on Monday that it had acquired Horizon Copper for $196 million in an all cash deal. The deal should close by the end of 2025's fourth quarter. Reporting by Tanay and Pooja in Bengaluru, and editing by Sonia Cheema, Leroy Leo and Sonia Cheema
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OPEC+ pumps more oil but is it necessary and at what cost? Russell
After OPEC+'s decision to increase crude oil production, two questions arise: Who will buy the extra crude and will they export the barrels that they claim to be producing? OPEC+ decided at a weekend gathering to increase production by 548,000 barrels a day (bpd). This is up from the 411,000 bpd that the group approved for May June and July and 138,000 bpd in April. Eight members of the group will boost production - Saudi Arabia (as well as Russia, Kuwait, Oman and Iraq), the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Kazakhstan, Algeria, Kuwait, Oman and Russia. The eight countries will have unwound the voluntary 2.2m bpd that they had imposed in an effort to support crude oil prices last year. OPEC+ cited "steady global economy outlook and current healthy fundamentals of the market" in its statement announcing increased August production, continuing a theme that it has been promoting in recent communiques: the oil market was in good shape. The reality is not as rosy, however, as OPEC+ portrays it, as the demand for oil in the major consumer countries like China, which is the top importer of the world, has been tepid. China's crude oil imports rose by just 0.3% or 28,500 barrels per day in the first five month of this year. The official data shows that the total was 11.1 million barrels per day. LSEG Oil Research expects imports to reach 11,96 million bpd in June, an increase from the previous customs figure of 11,30 million bpd. China's imports were likely strong in June. However, the reasons for this are not so positive. The reason why refiners bought more crude than intended is because the prices were lower when the June cargoes arrived. Brent futures, the global benchmark, hit a four year low of $58.50 per barrel on 5 May. They had been trending downwards since early April when cargoes due to arrive in June would have been purchased. The decline in oil prices led to an increase in the number of oil imports in Asia in June. This region, which accounts for 60% of all seaborne crudes, saw a rise of 28,65 million bpd. The increased imports in June boosted Asia's arrivals to 27,36 million bpd during the first half 2025, an increase of 620,000 bpd compared with the same period the previous year. In a coincidence, this forecast is in line with the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries' (OPEC) June monthly report which forecasts a demand growth of 630,000 bpd in Asia outside the OECD by 2025. Prices are key The question is if imports will increase in Asia in the second half or if momentum from June will fade. History shows that importers like China and India will tend to reduce imports when prices increase and use up their stockpiles. China's imports will likely be reduced in August or September due to the brief price spike in mid-June, sparked by Israel’s attacks against Iran. The United States joined Israel in this attack. Lower oil prices will encourage buyers to buy and build up inventory to increase imports in the fourth quarter. The ball in this case is largely on OPEC+. Prices will likely continue to fall if the group produces what its quotas permit and exports it. According to a July 4 survey, the actual production has so far lagged behind the higher quotas. The five OPEC+ members increased their output by 267,000 bpd, which was below the allowed 313,000 bpd. Saudi Arabia's actions will be crucial, as it is the OPEC+ member with the largest surplus capacity and ability to increase output. You like this column? Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. ROI provides data-driven, thought-provoking analysis on everything from soybeans to swap rates. The markets are changing faster than ever. ROI can help you keep up. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, X. These are the views of the columnist, an author for.
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EU countries want to reduce deforestation regulations, a letter shows
A letter obtained by revealed that the majority of European Union countries demanded more changes to the bloc’s anti-deforestation laws, claiming some producers could not be expected to comply with its terms, and would face a competitive advantage. Deforestation laws will be implemented in December. This is a first for the world. Operators who place goods, such as soy, beef, and palm oil on the EU market, must provide proof that their products do not deforest. The destruction of CO2-storing trees is one of the major causes of climate change. But even though extreme weather is getting worse, the political will to implement strict policies for cutting emissions has decreased, because governments are worried about the financial cost. Brussels has already delayed the launch of its new reporting system by an entire year, and reduced reporting requirements in response to criticisms from EU member states, as well from other trading partners such as the United States. The agriculture ministers of 18 EU member states wrote to the Commission Monday to demand that EU rules not be applied to countries with a low deforestation risk. Instead, they should use national measures. The letter stated that "Excessive due diligence requirements in countries where agricultural growth does not reduce forest area significantly" should be eliminated. The document was signed by Austrian, Bulgaria, Croatia (Czech Republic), Estonia, Finland, Hungary (Irland), Italy, Latvia, Lithuania Luxembourg, Poland, Portugal Romania, Slovakia and Slovenia The EU's 18 member states expressed concern that European producers might relocate overseas to avoid additional costs of complying with rules. The letter continued, "The full traceability required by the EU-market regulation for all commodities will be extremely difficult if not impossible for certain of them." Brussels could consider delaying its policy launch again while it develops further proposals to simplify rules. A spokesperson for the Commission did not respond immediately to a comment request. The EU's policy is to stop the 10% global deforestation that is linked to EU imports. (Reporting and editing by Barbara Lewis; Kate Abnett)
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LME's new Hong Kong storage facilities attract copper deliveries
Daily LME data revealed that the London Metal Exchange’s new warehouses located in Hong Kong had attracted 100 tons of copper. The copper was stored without a warrant or title documents confirming ownership. This location is expected to be operational in mid-July. Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing's LME approved Hong Kong in January for warehouse delivery as the LME sees Hong Kong as an entry point to China, the world's largest metals consumer. The LME stated that "the arrival of metal into LME-approved storage facilities shows that listing Hong Kong as an option for delivery is attractive to metal market participants." From July 15, owners of metal will be able to place the metal on warrant and deliver it against LME contracts. The exchange, which is the oldest and largest industrial metals market in the world, has added. Sources at a LME registered warehousing company said that some additional copper was expected to arrive in Hong Kong's LME registered warehouses before July 15. However, the amounts would be small. Hong Kong's high warehouse costs had previously raised concerns about the viability and cost of the new storage facility compared to other Asian sites like South Korea or Malaysia. As of July 2, according to LME data there were 11,356 tonnes of copper in Asia in registered LME warehouses, mostly in South Korea. The market will monitor any inflows into the LME registered warehouses closely due to the tightness that has accumulated in the copper markets after the massive outflows in the U.S. early this year. The LME's copper stock is down 64% from mid-February to 97,400 tonnes, but they are up a little bit in July. This has helped reduce the premium for contracts with shorter maturities compared to those that have longer maturities. Reporting by Polina Devlin; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama
What is in the EU draft Clean Industrial Deal?
A draft package was revealed on Tuesday by the European Commission. The package will be proposed next week to help EU industry stay competitive and reduce their carbon footprint.
The European manufacturing industry is facing a number of challenges, including a weak demand for its products, the cheaper Chinese competitors and upcoming tariffs by U.S. president Donald Trump on imports of steel and aluminum.
Here are the key elements of a leaked EU 'Clean Industrial Deal,' which is intended to revitalize Europe's struggling domestic industries.
Energy Prices
Energy prices in Europe are up to three-times higher than those of their American competitors, and Brussels has been under pressure to reduce this price differential to help local businesses to compete.
The draft EU document detailed plans for an European Investment Bank scheme that will launch by the end March. This scheme would offer guarantees to smaller companies for signing power purchase agreements, helping them lock in renewable electricity generators with predictable prices.
The EIB will also provide support to manufacturers who produce components for power grids to upgrade Europe's aging energy networks.
A proposed EU legislation in the fourth quarter would provide fast-tracked permits for energy-intensive industries in order to boost investment in clean industrial project.
The draft states that Brussels will recommend to all 27 EU member countries to lower electricity taxes to the legal minimum to reduce consumer bills on a short-term basis.
The Commission plans to also soften existing EU gas storage filling target, which the EU planned to extend past 2025. This is in response Germany and other countries who are concerned that fixed deadlines for filling storage could raise gas prices.
PUBLIC PURCHASING, STATE AID
The EU plans to make it easier for businesses to get state aids and other financial incentives when they undertake projects that reduce their carbon emission.
EU governments will be allowed to offer tax breaks on clean industrial investments through measures like accelerated depreciation. This allows businesses to depreciate a larger part of an asset sooner.
The draft stated that these changes will be made by simpler EU state aid regulations, which are due to be published in July. The EU will help countries to use national state aids to combat energy price spikes. This could include using subsidies to protect consumers from high gas costs.
Gas is the main source of electricity for most EU consumers, despite the rapid expansion of renewable energies in the EU.
In 2026, the EU's public procurement rules are set to be reformed. Buy-Europe criteria will be added in order to increase demand for local products.
Trade and CO2 Costs
According to the draft Clean Industry Deal, the EU will continue using anti-dumping and anti-subsidy duty as long as industries continue to be concerned about cheap imports, particularly of electric cars, and other clean technologies from China.
Before 2026, the bloc will start collecting taxes on steel, cement and various other imports.
The EU wants to simplify rules in order to reduce the administrative burden on industry. It could potentially scale back the carbon border tax to only 20% of companies that are covered by the scheme because they produce nearly all the emissions.
The draft stated that the Commission would propose a scheme to fund industrial CO2-cutting project using revenue from the EU Carbon Market, but did not specify how much money would be set aside.
(source: Reuters)