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China's carbon markets will introduce absolute emission caps in 2027

China's carbon markets will introduce absolute emission caps in 2027

The cabinet announced on Monday night that China would tighten the market for carbon trading by introducing absolute emission caps in certain industries starting 2027.

According to a joint statement from the State Council of China and the Central Committee of the Communist Party, the caps will first be implemented in industries that have relatively stable carbon emission levels by 2027. China's national carbon market, or emissions trading system (ETS), will be largely established by 2030.

"Policymakers have tightened the system", said Xuewan Chen senior research analyst at LSEG.

In a statement, it was stated that the national carbon market would replace the eight pilot markets currently in place, launched in 2021. It would feature absolute emission caps, as well as a mix of paid and free carbon emissions allowances.

CEAs currently are based more on benchmarks for carbon intensity that are gradually reduced, than on absolute emission caps.

A quota is given to each company and, if the actual emissions are higher than the quota in a compliance period, the company must purchase more allowances on the market. If the company's emissions are lower than expected, they can sell their excess CEAs.

The (cabinet document) provides much-needed clarity for the timeline of China's carbon market development, said Mai Duong Asia-Pacific Carbon Markets Analyst with Veyt. She added that it demonstrated China considers carbon markets to be "the key" tool in meeting its goals for decarbonisation.

The statement did not specify which industries would be covered by the ETS.

Analysts believe that chemicals, petrochemicals and papermaking, as well as domestic aviation, will be included in China's plan.

Duong added that the regulation will also increase liquidity by allowing banks and financial institutions to participate in the market.

China announced in September of last year that it would expand the carbon market to include steel cement and aluminum, which would cover approximately 60% of the country’s greenhouse gas emission. Analysts said that because of the high number of allowances available, the carbon market had so far not affected China's emissions.

Duong stated that it is a positive development that China has now set a timeline for the full-scope expansion. However, whether or not this will have measurable effects in reducing China's huge emissions remains to see.

(source: Reuters)