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Consultancy says Brazil will cut sugar exports to Brazil by 14% due to mills switching to ethanol

Brazil's biggest sugar exporter and producer is expected to reduce shipments by 14.2% in the upcoming 2026/27 - season that begins in April - as mills reroute sugarcane for ethanol production due to high energy prices.

Safras estimates total Brazilian sugar exports for the new season including the Center-South, North/Northeast and North/Southeast regions at 29 million metric tonnes, compared with 33.8 million in 2025/26.

In a report, the consultancy stated that Brazil's sugar production will fall to 40.33 million tons by 2026/27 from 43.5 million tons during the previous crop.

The total ethanol production would rise 10.7%, to 42.58 billions liters, if fuel made from?corn is included.

Analyst Mauricio Mauruci of Safras Sugar and Ethanol expects that the Brazilian government will increase the amount of ethanol blended in gasoline in the second half of the year from 30% to 35%. This could lead to a rise in demand for anhydrous alcohol.

According to him, every additional percentage point in the blend rate will add 920 millions liters to the fuel mix of Brazil.

Brazilian mills are able to adapt their plants based on the market price to produce more sugar, or ethanol. At the moment, ethanol is a more profitable option. ethanol will become even more rewarding if gasoline prices increase. Petrobras, the state-controlled Brazilian oil company, has not yet raised gasoline prices since the beginning of the Iran war. Local gasoline prices are around 40% below import parity. Brazilian President Luiz inacio Lula da So is running for reelection.

Safras & Mercado projects that mills will reduce their sugarcane consumption to 47% in the next season, down from 49%. The remainder will be used to produce ethanol.

(source: Reuters)