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Bali flood waters recede after 16 deaths and two missing
Officials said that two people are still missing in Bali, Indonesia, a resort island. At least 16 people have been killed by flooding this week. Torrential Rains On Tuesday and Wednesday, the rapid rise of floods caused by the rains blocked major roads in Denpasar as well as six out of Bali's eight districts. Some areas also experienced landslides. I Nyoman Maha Putra, an architect and planning expert from the Warmadewa University, Denpasar, stated that the rapid development of the island had not taken into consideration the need for adequate drainage infrastructure. He said, "City planning does not take into account disasters." "All infrastructure construction is designed to make Bali more attractive for tourists and investors." Local media reported that Bali's Governor, Wayan Koster said, "Conversion of land use is not the cause for this week’s flooding in Denpasar." The Bali government's regional planning and development body did not respond immediately to a comment request. Bali's primary source of income is tourism. Last year, more than 6.3 millions international tourists arrived on the island. This was higher than the number of arrivals in 2019, the year prior to the COVID-19 pandemic that brought ground tourism to an end. Bali was the destination of choice for over 40% of Indonesian tourists last year. I Nyoman, head of Bali's search-and-rescue body, stated that the search for two missing persons was still continuing on Friday.
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Australian critical mineral companies head to Washington
Four sources familiar with the matter said that more than 20 Australian companies, including Trafigura's Nyrstar unit, will be heading to the U.S. to explore possible areas of collaboration next week. The Australian Trade and Investment Commission will lead a delegation to Washington and New York for meetings with senior officials of the Trump administration. The trip was described as routine by sources, but the companies are expected to arrive soon after the Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese spoke with President Donald Trump about the opportunities for the critical minerals companies of both countries in the last week. Albanese, the Australian ambassador to New York for the United Nations General Assembly later this month, has asked to meet with Trump. No meetings have yet been announced. Australia is trying to establish itself as a major supplier of Western allies, as they develop an alternative supply network to China. Meanwhile, the U.S. prepares to invest in its battery and defense industries. Reports last month indicated that the Trump Administration was considering reallocating at least $2 billion of the CHIPS Act funds, which support semiconductor research and chip plant construction, for critical minerals projects. Last month, Nyrstar won the support of the Australian government to evaluate whether it is possible to produce four essential minerals in two aging smelters. This includes antimony that is used for ammunition and whose exports from China are limited. Nyrstar will need additional funds to put this plan into motion. Some attendees were looking for funding opportunities. The meetings are described as an opportunity to understand the priorities of the Trump Administration, as well as meeting administration officials and building relationships. Other miners include Australia's leading lithium producer Pilbara Minerals, which supplies lithium primarily to China and South Korea. International Graphite, which has a graphite mining operation in Western Australia, is expanding its processing capabilities. Representatives from Pilbara Minerals International Graphite, and Cobalt Blue have confirmed that they will be attending next week. The delegation will be without Australia's Trade and Resources Minister Madeleine King. Requests for comments on the prospects of major announcements were not immediately responded to by the ministers' offices. Australia and the United States have a vital minerals partnership. Under legislation passed late in 2023, Australian deposits will qualify as domestic supplies for U.S. defense procurement. (Reporting and editing by Lincoln Feast; Melanie Burton).
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UBS increases gold price target to 3,800 oz by the end of 2025
UBS increased its gold price forecast on Friday by $300 per ounce to $3800 by the end 2025 and by $200 per ounce to $3900 by mid-2026. It cited anticipated Federal Reserve easing, U.S. Dollar weakness linked to rate reductions and geopolitical risk. The Swiss bank revised its estimate of gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs) holdings. It now projects levels to surpass 3,900 metric tonnes by the end 2025. This is close to the previous record set in October of 2020 of 3,915 metric tons. We maintain an attractive view on gold, and remain long the metal as part of our global asset allocation. UBS stated that a percentage of gold in the mid-single digits is optimal. Bank of America highlighted geopolitical issues and differences in policy between the U.S. Administration and the Federal Reserve, as well as U.S. president Donald Trump's preference for lower interest rates. UBS anticipates that central bank gold purchases will remain strong at around 900 to 950 tons in this year. This is slightly less than last year's record-breaking purchases just over 1,000 tons. UBS said that the Fed could be forced to increase rates if inflation surprises lead to higher interest rates. The price of non-yielding gold, which is often viewed as a safe haven during times of economic and political uncertainty, and also known to perform well when interest rates are low, reached a new record of $3,673.95 Tuesday, and has gained over 39% in the past year. (Reporting and editing by Jacqueline Wong, Rashmi aich and Anmol Choubey from Bengaluru)
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Japan increases sanctions on Russia by reducing the price of Russian oil to $47.50
A government spokesperson announced that Japan had decided to reduce its price cap for Russian crude oil from $60 per barrel to $47.60 starting Friday to punish Moscow's continued war in Ukraine. This move follows the European Union's decision in July to lower its cap on Russian crude oil to $47.60, as part of their 18th package of sanctions against Moscow. Yoshimasa Haiashi, the Chief Cabinet Secretary, said at a regular press briefing that Japan would also impose further asset freezing and export control restrictions on entities in Russia as part of an international effort to bring peace to Ukraine. An official from the Industry Ministry said that the reduced oil price cap is not expected to affect Japan's crude acquisition. Tokyo and other G7 nations have agreed to reduce Russian oil imports as a response to Moscow's invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Japan still buys Sakhalin Blend crude. This is a by-product of the liquefied gas produced at the Sakhalin-2 Project. It's vital for Japan's energy safety as it represents about 9% its LNG imports. The official from the Ministry said that transactions related to the Sakhalin Project are exempted from the price-cap rule. Japan imported 95,299 barrels of crude oil from Russia in the period between January and July. This represents just 0.1% of Japan's total imports. (Reporting and editing by Himani Sarkar, Tom Hogue and Kantaro Obayashi)
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French and Benelux stocks: Factors to watch
Here are some company news and stories that could impact the markets in France and Benelux or even individual stocks. EURONEXT Euronext, the pan-European stock exchange operator, announced on Thursday that it would be added to France's CAC 40 blue-chip index. Euronext announced that Teleperformance, a French call centre and office services company, will be excluded from the CAC 40 index. The SBF 120 index, which measures the most traded stocks, will now include Abivax and Exail Technologies, instead of Esso and OVH. The changes will take effect on September 22. ROBERTET The French fragrance group announced half-year revenue of 446.3 millions euros on Thursday and confirmed its outlook for the year. VALLOUREC Pan-European market data: European Equities speed guide................... FTSE Eurotop 300 index.............................. DJ STOXX index................................................ Top 10 STOXX sectors................................... Top 10 EUROSTOXX sectors......................Top 10 Eurotop 300 sector..................... Pan-European market data: European Equities speed guide................... FTSE Eurotop 300 index.............................. DJ STOXX index...................................... Top 10 STOXX sectors........................... Top 10 EUROSTOXX sectors...................... Top 10 Eurotop 300 sectors..................... Top 25 European pct gainers....................... Top 25 European pct losers........................ Main stock markets: Dow Jones............... Wall Street report ..... Nikkei 225............. Tokyo report............ FTSE 100............... London report........... Xetra DAX............. Frankfurt items......... CAC-40................. Paris items............ World Indices..................................... survey of world bourse outlook......... European Asset Allocation........................ News at a glance: Top News............. Equities.............. Main oil report........... Main currency report.....
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Morning bid Europe-Markets to the Fed: Please take five more.
Wayne Cole gives us a look at what the future holds for European and global markets. It was good to hear that. The CPI in the U.S. was a little firmer, but not enough to notice. The prices that feed core PCE were surprising benign. This led analysts to reduce their forecasts from +0.2%m/m to a steady 2,9% for the year. The Federal Reserve is set to begin its easing cycle next week with 25 basis point, but the markets only see a 7% probability of a 50bps. The magnitude of the decline in labour market data would lead you to assume that the more aggressive options will be discussed. If the vote is 25 to 50 but one or two voters dissent, this could be enough dovishness to keep the rally going. It is important to provide a dovish outlook, given that futures markets have begun to price in 71bps cuts by Christmas and 125bps cuts by July. Five cuts over five meetings is fine. Oh, and I'd like to make a request to the Fed: please return to a single interest rate, not this range of 4.25-4.50. We are no longer at zero. In the last two weeks, bonds have delivered a quarter point cut in mortgage rates. The yields on 10-year notes are down by 20bps. Investors need Fed Chair Jerome Powell's willingness to ease up on the market, depending of course on the data. The prospect of lower U.S. interest rates has allowed liquidity to flow in Asia, and investors have been able to place bets on everything AI. All three indexes, in Japan and South Korea, have reached record highs. Kospi is alone up nearly 6% in the past week. The blue chips of China are now back at their peaks in early 2022. They have survived Beijing's warnings about capitalist excesses. In the face of falling yields the dollar has held relatively well against the majors while losing ground on less popular crosses. The dollar index has only a slight decline on the week despite the constant talk about the end of exceptionalism. The Australian dollar has finally broken out of its trading range and reached a 10-month high, while the Norwegian crown is now at its highest level since early in 2023. In the last month, both have seen their yield spreads against the USD move in their favor by around 40 basis points. Both are also testing high chart levels. The following are key developments that may influence the markets on Friday. - Appearances of Bank of Spain Governor Jose Luis Escriva, and ECB Policy Maker Olli Reinn - UK manufacturing output and GDP for July. Final CPI readings for the EU - US consumer sentiment for September
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Oil prices continue to fall due to oversupply and US demand concerns
The oil prices dropped on Friday. This was in addition to the big drops in the previous session. Concerns about a possible softening in U.S. Demand and a general oversupply were offset by concerns about disruptions of supply due to conflict in the Middle East or war in Ukraine. Brent crude futures dropped 49 cents or 0.74% to $65.88 per barrel at 0419 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude fell 51 cents or 0.82% to $61.86. The (U.S. inflation) battle is not yet won. This dampens demand for oil in the world's biggest economy. Even geopolitical turmoil is not enough to sustain oil prices. Fundamentals indicate an oversupply of crude and a lacklustre level of demand, said Priyanka Sackdeva, senior analyst at brokerage Phillip Nova. The government reported on Thursday that U.S. consumer price indexes in August rose by the highest in seven months, and a large number of first-time unemployment aid applications were filed last week. This has raised expectations that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates to boost economic growth next week. This would then increase demand for oil. The oil price rose by up to 2% on Monday, due to the possibility of disruptions in trade or production from war and conflict. However, the benchmarks began falling on Thursday. They have now erased the gains made earlier this week. Losses began when the International Energy Agency, in its monthly report, said that world oil supplies would increase more quickly than expected due to planned production increases by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC+) and its allies such as Russia. OPEC's own report did not change its high growth predictions for global oil demand in 2025 and 2026. It said the world economy maintained a strong growth trend. SDIC Futures reported in a daily update that the crude market is constantly bouncing between concerns over short-term disruptions and surplus supply pressures. However, geopolitical fears are reducing support for prices. OPEC+ announced on Sunday that it would increase its oil production quotas starting in October, as Saudi Arabia, the group's leading member, tries to regain market shares. Saudi Arabian crude oil exports are expected to increase, according to several sources on Thursday. The state-controlled Aramco is shipping 1.65 million barrels of crude oil per day to China in October. This is a sharp rise from the 1.43 million barrels per days allocated to China in September. The IEA reported that in Russia, which is expected to be the second largest producer of crude oil behind the U.S. by 2024, revenues from the sale of crude and petroleum products declined in August, reaching one of their lowest levels since the beginning of the conflict in Ukraine. A report released by the Energy Information Administration on Wednesday showed that U.S. crude oil stocks increased last week, rising by 3.9 millions barrels to 424.6million barrels. (Reporting and editing by Tom Hogue, Lewis Jackson and Sam Li in Beijing)
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Indonesia seizes Weda Bay Nickel area 148 hectares
Rilke Jeffreyri Huwae, an official from the mining ministry, said that a task force in Indonesia seized a 148 hectare area (366 acres) of PT Weda Bay Nickel because it did not have the necessary forestry permits. The government is targeting illegal mining operations as part of an overall crackdown. Last month, President Prabowo said that the government had identified more than 1,000 illegal mining operations. Rilke stated that PT Weda Bay Nickel holds a mining permit but does not have the forestry licence required to exploit the region. The nickel-rich Halmahera island is home to the Weda Bay Nickel Mine, which is controlled by China's Tsingshan Group, France Eramet SA, and Indonesia Aneka Tambang. Febrie Adriansyah is a senior prosecutor in the Attorney's General Office. She said that the task force also seized a 172.8 hectare mine area owned by PT Tonia Mitra Sejahtera, located in Southeast Sulawesi. He said that the land was part of a total area of about 4.2 million acres which were identified as having no forestry permits. Reporting by Bernadette Cristina Munthe; Writing by Fransiska Naangoy; Editing David Stanway
Declining Mexican crude output might shatter energy self-reliance dream
Mexico's inbound President Claudia Sheinbaum will likely face a new challenge fulfilling the imagine energy independence that led her predecessor to invest $17 billion on a new refinery: a shortfall in domestic unrefined supply.
The nation is a major crude manufacturer however output from the nation's older oil fields, mostly in the Gulf of Mexico, has plunged to more than a four-decade low.
Without considerable spending on exploration and production, Mexico might find itself importing crude to feed its broadened refinery capacity in the next decade, an as soon as unheard-of modification of direction for the key worldwide exporter.
For years, state-owned Pemex has failed to satisfy regional fuel demand since its outdated refineries were unable to procedure the heavy Maya crude that it predominantly pumps.
That left Mexico exporting crude while having to import gasoline and diesel, much of it from the United States. Outbound President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador promised to alter what he saw as a humiliating reliance on imported motor fuels.
He commissioned a new 340,000 barrels daily (bpd) refinery in his home state Tabasco to fulfill the fuel supply shortfall triggered by Pemex's six refineries that had actually gone years without sufficient investment to perform at capacity.
Lopez Obrador's Olmeca refinery in Dos Bocas is over spending plan and behind schedule, once it fully begins, Mexico may come close to supplying the motor fuels it takes in for a few years.
Previously unreported forecasts from the energy ministry, seen , nevertheless, recommend that period would be brief, and Pemex would likely have to start importing crude as production will quickly decline from 2030.
Pemex, the energy ministry and the president's office did not react to ask for comment for this story.
Zama, a shallow-water field on the cusp of being a. deep-water field, and Trion, an ultra-deep-water field, would. temporarily lift production to practically 2.247 million bpd in 2028. from around 1.8 million bpd now, the middle of three situations. set out by the energy ministry showed.
The most optimistic scenario sees output reaching 2.390. million bpd, and the more pessimistic at 2.164 million bpd.
All 3 circumstances, which factor in some new discoveries,. project quickly declining production from 2030.
That indicates Mexico would need to start importing crude as. early as in the next decade if it wishes to run its refineries. near capacity, one source at the energy ministry familiar with. the projections said. It would also no longer export crude.
Zama and Trion might also dissatisfy, the source stated,. adding that other recent discoveries have.
UNEXPLORED CAPACITY
Alma America Porres, who served two terms as a commissioner. at the hydrocarbon regulator, including throughout the landmark. energy reform that sought to open the sector a years back,. stated Mexico's proven crude reserves suggest the shortfall may. come even faster.
The tested reserves offer us the most sensible image of. what there is, she said. I do not see a big discovery, one of. the scale of Trion or Zama, in the near term.
Previously this year, Mexico reported that its tested crude. reserves had fallen to 5.978 billion barrels from 6.155 billion. barrels a year earlier. Its total proven reserves were raised. by natural gas, however.
Production from older fields - including the Cantarell. field, as soon as the 2nd biggest in the world after Ghawar in. Saudi Arabia - has been decreasing quickly over the last few years. Newer. fields have actually stopped working to compensate.
Lopez Obrador has invested heavily in the six refineries,. which increased processing to about 1 million bpd. Even so, its. out-of-date refineries produce record amounts of fuel oil rather. than much-needed motor fuels.
With the Olmeca refinery starting up and repair work to older. ones, the energy ministry forecasts they will process 1.6. million bpd of crude, closer but still below consumption levels. of around 1.7 million bpd, International Energy Company data. shows.
Experts have stated the big amounts spent on the Olmeca refinery. could have been much better spent on oilfield exploration and. production, and diversifying into renewable resource sources.
Lopez Obrador, a resource nationalist, has actually not held auctions. for locations that might motivate other oil and gas business to. explore and buy deepwater and onshore shale production,. where Pemex lacks competence and cash.
The legal structure to enable participation from companies to. run fields by themselves - or in association with Pemex -. remains in location even after Lopez Obrador pushed through other. reforms that focus on Pemex.
The exploration part requires a lot of financial investment,. investment that Pemex does not always have cash for, stated. Carla Gabriela Gonzalez, another previous senior authorities at the. hydrocarbon regulator.
And that was where private companies added worth: since. they purchased exploration, which investment didn't cost. the Mexican state anything. On the contrary, these business. paid the Mexican state for the right to check out.
Three Pemex engineers at the company's expedition and. production arm, and the engineer at the energy ministry agreed. that the state company might extremely gain from participation. by the private sector.
What we need is a massive expedition strategy, similar to. Petrobras in Brazil had, rather of one that centers on. increasing refining capabilities, stated the energy ministry. source.
Pemex puts Sheinbaum in a bind: she has placed herself. as the guardian of her mentor's resource nationalist tradition that. requires investment while others are diversifying into renewable. energy sources.
Sheinbaum has proposed investing more on wind and solar. facilities for electricity generation. Her plans for Pemex. stay uncertain and her team did not respond to an ask for. more remark.
With a doctorate in energy engineering from Mexico's. National Autonomous University, Sheinbaum was one of the lead. authors for the industry chapter of the U.N. Intergovernmental. Panel on Environment Change in 2014.
One of Sheinbaum's consultants on energy matters stated that. there would likely be some collaboration with private companies. throughout her presidency to increase exploration and production,. with choice offered to those currently operating in Mexico.
(source: Reuters)