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Stocks drop as nervous markets await Fed decision, rates outlook
Investors worried about the direction U.S. interest rates could take next year amid fears about a divided Central Bank. Asian stocks dropped while the dollar remained steady on Tuesday. Investor sentiment was cautious after a shaky start to the week, with key central bank meetings. Markets are looking for clarity on the outlook of global interest rates. Reserve Bank of Australia kept rates unchanged as expected on February 2, ruling out any further policy easing. They warned that the next step could be an increase if inflation pressures remain stubborn. The Australian dollar traded just below a three-month high. Bank of Canada, Swiss National Bank, and the Federal Reserve are expected to keep rates unchanged this week. Many Wall Street banks predict that the Fed will not cut interest rates as much in 2026 due to lingering concerns about inflation and expectations for a stronger U.S. economic recovery. MSCI's broadest Asia-Pacific share index outside Japan fell by 0.65% after a weak session overnight on Wall Street. European futures point to a subdued opening as a cautious air grips the markets. Prashant Nnewnaha, senior Asia-Pacific rate strategist at TD Securities, said that "the low-hanging fruits from risk management reductions are likely over" and that Chair Powell's upcoming press conference is likely to reflect a more conservative approach in the future regarding policy recalibration. The dot plot is likely to show a single cut in 2026. If the dot plot indicates two cuts next year, this would be considered dovish. According to LSEG, traders are pricing in 77 basis point of easing at the end of the next year. Some strategists believe that the Fed's Policy Committee could be deeply divided. The meeting is also being held in the context of increased market interest about who will replace Powell as Fed chair when his current term ends next May. Kevin Hassett, White House Economic Advisor and leading contender for the Fed chair role, said in an exclusive interview that the Fed should continue to reduce interest rates. Xiao Cui is a senior U.S. economics from Pictet Wealth Management. He expects that a solid economy, inflation above target, and a slowing labor market will increase the internal divisions within the FOMC, making 2026 a challenging year for policymakers. We see risks that Fed reductions are delayed until the second half 2026. Asian chip stocks sank after U.S. president Donald Trump announced that the United States would allow Nvidia to export its H200 processors -?its second best artificial intelligence chips - to China, and charge a 25% tax on these sales. China's CSI Semiconductor Industry Index fell 0.5%, while the broader CSI300 Index dropped 0.47%. The dollar was stable on Tuesday. The euro was last trading at $1.1649, while the pound sterling was up 0.11% to $1.3336. The Aussie dollar was up 0.33% at $0.6646. It is hovering near its highest level since September after RBA Governor Michele Bullock warned of the possibility of an increase in interest rates due to inflationary forces. The yen remained unchanged at 155.91 to the dollar, after a sharp decline immediately following a powerful earthquake in Japan. The Japanese authorities lifted the tsunami warnings Tuesday, hours after a powerful 7.5-magnitude quake shook Japan's northeastern region, injuring 30 people at least and forcing 90,000 residents from their homes. Oil prices continued to fall in commodities after a 2% drop in the previous session, as traders kept an eye on the peace talks that were taking place in Ukraine to end Russia's conflict. Brent crude futures fell 0.3% to $62.32 per barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude was down by 0.41% at $58.64. (Reporting and editing by Shri Navaratnam in Singapore)
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US military develops small refineries for critical mineral substances
The U.S. Military said it plans to build a fleet small-scale refineries that will produce the critical minerals needed to manufacture bullets, armor, and other types of weaponry. This is a step to create domestic sources of niche materials, which Chinese miners have 'long controlled. Plans, not previously announced, are being developed jointly by the U.S. Army, the Idaho National Laboratory, and the antimony and gold mining company Perpetua Resources. Antimony is the first mineral that the military wants to refine. The Army has said that it will not produce large quantities of minerals for private consumption. However, a small-scale approach could provide a constant stream of building blocks, without having to rely on commercial refineries which are often much larger and primarily focused on bulk commodities, such as copper and iron ore. Washington hopes to refine other minerals, such as?tungsten and rare earths, which the U.S. government considers critical. Mark Mezger is a U.S. Army munitions adviser. He said, "We must find a way of making our own critical minerals that we can control and monitor within our borders." The Army spent $30,000,000 over several years developing the refinery programme for antimony. Westpro Machinery, a private company, designed a refinery which can be transported within four shipping containers. The refinery is able to produce between 7 and 10 metric tons of trisulfide (a type of antimony) annually, which is far less than what a commercial refinery could produce. However, it's enough to supply the Army in peacetime. Mezger stated that if a conflict breaks out, the Army could expand processing by adding more mini-refineries for ore from Perpetua’s Idaho mine. He added that the Army was in discussions with other U.S. Antimony Projects to source additional antimony. Primers, which are the explosive caps at the base of a bullet, are made from antimony trisulfide. The United States hasn't produced this version of antimony since the 1960s. "You can't make primers without antimony trisulfide." Without primers you cannot make bullets. "An army without bullets would be a mere parade," Mezger said. Idaho National Laboratory is testing the facility over the next six-months and if it passes muster will be operating it for Perpetua and the Army. Perpetua is backed both by JPMorgan Chase and the billionaire investor John Paulson. Officials said that refineries for other minerals could be situated on military bases or government properties. In March, was the first to report that the Trump Administration was considering placing metal refining plants on U.S. Military bases. The portable refinery will perform steps that are common in larger facilities, such as crushing rock. The type of mineral produced will determine the chemicals that are used. INL will also be involved in ensuring that the facility is not only a copy of existing refinery standards, but is also cleaner and more efficient. In 2021, the Army learned that China had stopped shipping Trisulfide. This triggered a rapid drawdown of its one-year supply and a rush to find alternative supplies in India. Mezger explained that the refinery plan was borne out of a recognition that a domestic alternative was essential. Jon Cherry, Perpetua CEO, said that the development of the plant should "pave a way for sustainable American mineral independence and resilient." (Reporting and editing by Ernest Scheyder)
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Bezos Earth Fund increases marine conservation by $24.5 million
Head of Nature of the world's largest climate philanthropy, gave $24.5 million for coastal ecosystem protection as part of a plan that aims to create a cross-border marine Biosphere Reserve. The Bezos Earth Fund has awarded four grants to local communities in Costa Rica and Panama. Colombia and Ecuador will also receive a grant. The grants are part of a $1 billion plan to protect 30% of the land and oceans of the planet by 2030. The group of donors aims to contribute $5 billion in the same time period as part of the "Protecting Our Planet Challenge" with 10 other philanthropies. The Bezos?Earth?Fund, and the wider coalition have deployed more than $3.5 billion of the $5 billion total. Re:wild, an organization that helps partners establish and strengthen coastal reserves for turtles, hammerheads sharks and other marine species. Cristian Samper, the Bezos Earth Fund’s director of nature, stated that "it's an extremely important area for species migration." "The only way to protect this area is by doing it transboundary." He said that in two years, the four countries tripled the size?of the protected seas, to more than 600,00 square kilometres (231,660 square miles), across 10 different areas. The goal now is to create a biosphere reserve. "That'll be the first of its kind in the world," said Samper, adding that the Fund is also examining a similar?"reserve" in the Pacific which would be five times as large as the continental United States. The fund agreed to spend 100?million dollars helping the Pacific Region implement the global biodiversity goals and would announce the second set of grant in 2026. This is the kind of work that you should be doing to move the needle toward 30 by 30. (Reporting and editing by William Maclean, Simon Jessop)
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Saudi crude oil supplies to China in January are set to reach a three-month high following price drops
Sources said that Saudi Arabia's crude oil exports to China are set to reach a record high in January, after it lowered its official selling prices for Asia. Saudi Aramco, the state oil company, will send about 49.5 millions barrels or 1.60 million barrels a day to China in January, according to a list of allotments to Chinese refiners. According to records, the allocation volume is up from the two previous months when it was?under 40 millions barrels. It's also the highest since last October. Sources said that PetroChina, Rongsheng Petrochemical, and Shenghong Petrochemical were among the companies who planned to increase Saudi crude shipments next month. CNOOC, Hengli Petrochemical and others will lift less this month than the previous month. Saudi Aramco has not yet commented on the allocation of January to China. Last week, the state-owned producer released its official January selling prices. The price of the Arab Light crude oil to Asia was cut by 60 cents per barrel, compared with the average for Oman/Dubai, which is the lowest in five years. Two sources stated that the lower price attracted term buyers to lift more. OSPs were also cheaper than spot benchmarks, which also boosted demand. Late November, Chinese independent refiners received their first shipment of import quotas for 2026.
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MORNING BID EUROPE: Markets racked with anxiety as we approach the day of Fed
Ankur Banerjee gives us a look at what the future holds for European and global markets Investors are on edge about the U.S. financial policy outlook, ahead of the?expected Federal Reserve rate cut this week. A divided central 'bank and the prospect that a dovish Fed Chair will replace?Jerome Powell have investors worried. Welcome to the almost-Fed Day! The traders are almost certain that the Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday. Let's face it, most traders are focused on what Powell says and how many rate reductions the dot plot for 2026 will show. The markets are predicting 77 basis point easing by the end of 2026. This means that two more price cuts will remain after December. This week, the Fed is expected to adopt a semihawkish tone and warn that the next rate cut bar will be raised. Anything that sounds even vaguely dovish is a surprise, and could cause a lot of volatility. Bond investors are preparing for a short-term easing cycle by reducing their exposure to Treasuries with long maturities and rotating into intermediate maturities in order to get a better return. White House economist Kevin Hassett said that the Fed should lower interest rates in an interview. This added yet another layer to a likely complex Fed decision-making day. Jamie McGeever, Open Interest Markets columnist, writes that the markets aren't so sure. Stocks are largely trading sideways in the'skittish' mood. European futures suggest a lacklustre start to the year. However, chip stocks may be worth watching. Donald Trump announced on Monday that the United States would allow Nvidia H200 processors to be exported to China, and charge a 25%?fee? for such sales. The Australian dollar also fluctuated after the central bank of Australia kept interest rates the same as expected. After a brief period of weakness, the yen remained steady as soon as news of a powerful quake in Japan began to filter through. The impact of the earthquake has been minimal, as Japanese authorities have lifted tsunami warnings. The following are key developments that may influence the markets on Tuesday. Exports and imports of Germany for October
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Orangutans in danger as Indonesia floods destroy habitat
Amran Siagian (39), a resident of Sipirok in North Sumatra province, met Tapanuli Orangutans frequently on a hill. Siagian who has been working at the Orangutan Center (OIC), as a ranger, to protect this endangered animal for at least five year, recalls that the orangutans loved eating durians and other fruits grown in the surrounding area. Orangutans have disappeared from Sipirok after the landslides. As of Tuesday, 962 people had died from the cyclone-induced flooding and landslides. 291 are still missing. Storms in southern Thailand and Malaysia also claimed the lives of?about 200 other people. "They must have gone further and farther away." I could not hear their voices," Siagian said. Local leaders and green groups have said that?deforestation caused by mining and logging has exacerbated the impact of floods and land slides. Large trees were cut down in Sipirok, which is a village located in South Tapanuli, and was one of the worst hit areas by the disaster. Siagian claimed that a company has been logging the area for more than a year. He said that the deforestation affected orangutans before the floods. Orangutans live by moving from branch to branch between the forest canopy. Siagian stated that if the forest was sparse, they would have a difficult time. OIC founder Panud Hadisiswoyo stated that there were approximately 760 orangutans living in the Tapanuli Region. He said that the biggest threat to forests is due to plantations, and extractive industries. According to World Wildlife Fund, there are 119,000 orangutans in Indonesia and Malaysia. Orangutans may become extinct in this area if the government does not step up. Siagian added that the deforestation was a major factor. (Reporting and writing by Ahmad Luqman Ismail in South Tapanuli, Ananda Teresia, Editing by Stephen Coates.
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Gold prices stable as markets prepare for Fed's hawkish tone
The price of gold was flat on Tuesday, as investors had already priced in a Federal Reserve rate cut. They were also preparing for signs that the U.S. Central Bank may adopt a more moderate easing cycle than expected at its two-day meeting beginning later that day. As of 0444 GMT, spot gold was flat at $4,189.17 an ounce. U.S. Gold futures for December delivery were flat at $4.218.50 an ounce. Kelvin Wong, senior market analyst at OANDA, said that investors are repositioning themselves largely ahead of the Federal Reserve's policy-setting meeting. Powell had given a hawkish rate cut guidance in his press conference earlier this month. Investors in the U.S. Treasury Market are now adjusting their positions. The benchmark 'U.S. The 10-year Treasury yields remained near the 2-1/2 month high reached on Monday. Analysts expect to see a "hawkish" cut this week, accompanied by forecasts and guidance that indicate a high threshold of further easing next year. The U.S. The Fed's preferred inflation indicator, the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE), was in line with expectations. Consumer sentiment also improved in December. The private payrolls in November showed a sharpest decline since more than two-and-a half years. However, jobless claims dropped to a 3-year low during the week ending November 28. According to CME’s FedWatch Tool, the markets now give an 89% chance of a quarter point cut at the Fed’s meeting on December 9-10. Gold is a non-yielding asset that tends to be favoured by lower interest rates. Silver rose by?0.2%, to $58.24 an ounce. This is not far off the record high of $59.32 per ounce that was reached on Friday. Wong said that silver was a more risky play than gold, due to its low inventories and strong industrial demand. He also added that the Fed's rate cut expectations and low inventory levels are pushing silver into a high-risk mode. Palladium rose 0.7%, to $1475.38, and platinum gained 0.4%, to $1649.10. (Reporting and editing by Sumana Aich, Rashmia Aich, and Ishaan arora in Bengaluru)
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The US rate decision and peace talks with Ukraine have a positive impact on oil prices.
The oil prices fell a little more?on Tuesday. This was a continuation of the 2% decline in the previous session. Markets are keeping a close watch on the peace talks that will end the war between Russia and Ukraine, as well as the imminent decision by the U.S. Federal Reserve on interest rates. Brent crude futures fell 8 cents or 0.1% to $62.41 per barrel at 0409 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude was trading at $58.75 - down 13 cents or 0.2%. Both contracts dropped by more than $1 per barrel on Monday, after Iraq restored production of Lukoil’s West Qurna 2 Oilfield, which is one of the largest in the world. Priyanka Sahdeva, senior market analyst at Phillip Nova, said that Brent's move back?towards the $62 level (aligns) seamlessly with the broader narrative for December. The noise about potential Iraqi disruptions faded overnight and the market quickly returned to its core theme: ample supply and conservative demand expectations. After talks between the President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskiy and leaders from?France Germany and Britain in London, Ukraine will share its revised peace plan with the U.S. Tim Waterer, KCM Trade's chief market analyst, said that oil is "keeping to a narrow trading range" until we know the outcome of the peace talks. He added that if the talks fail, oil prices will likely rise. If progress is made and it is possible for Russian energy to be supplied to the global market again, the price is expected to drop. Sources familiar with the issue claim that the Group of Seven and the European Union have been in discussions to replace the price cap on Russian oil exports by a complete ban on maritime services in an effort to reduce Russia's revenue from oil. The Federal Reserve policy decision is due on Wednesday. Markets have priced in a 87% chance of a rate cut by a quarter point. Low interest rates are typically a positive factor for oil demand, given that they reduce the cost of borrowing. However, some analysts remain cautious as to how this will affect oil prices in the near future. Sachdeva, of Phillip Nova, said that although markets are heavily invested in the FED's policy decision for Wednesday, which could result in a 25bp cut and provide short-term support to the lower end 60-65 range, the price structure is still anchored on the expectation of an oversupplied oil market by 2026. Reporting by Ashitha Shivprasad from Bengaluru, and Trixie Yap from Singapore. Editing by Thomas Derpinghaus & Jamie Freed.
Under planned reforms, investors in Vietnam will be subject to strict police screening
A draft decree states that investors in Vietnam's energy, telecommunications and construction sectors will have to get police approval before they can proceed with their projects. This is part of a major reform designed to increase security and guarantee the "absolute authority" of the ruling Communist Party.
The text of the proposed public security ministry proposal, which is subject to change, could increase the compliance costs for businesses in Southeast Asia while also significantly increasing the power of the security apparatus.
The proposal, published on the website of the Ministry of Security, stated that "in socio-economic development security must be assured, without sacrificing the national interest for economic benefits." Other ministries are invited to comment until September 22, 2009.
The prime minister could sign it into law if no major changes were requested.
Vietnam, a country that is heavily dependent on exports and foreign investors, conducts only limited security checks for most development projects. The police are primarily consulting in this regard. If approved, it is not clear how widely the new rules will be implemented and whether they will only apply to future projects.
In a separate explanation, the ministry stated that the new provisions are necessary in order to cope with an increasingly complex international environment dominated by strategic rivalry aimed at "increasing the spheres of influence of powerful countries," but did not specify which nations.
The ministry didn't respond to a comment request.
In a communist-run Vietnam, the police play an important role that goes beyond security. They have a significant influence on the legislation, and their interests in economics are growing. To Lam, the party leader and Vietnam’s most powerful man before he became the president, was the head of the security ministry. Separately the army is responsible for a variety of businesses including banks and Viettel, the country's largest telecom operator.
The proposed reform would grant the security ministry the authority to evaluate development projects for critical infrastructures such as nuclear power plants and telecommunications and satellite services that involve foreign participation, ports, and oilfields on the basis of security.
SpaceX and Amazon, two U.S.-based companies, plan to launch satellite communication services in Vietnam.
POLICE TO VET GOLF PROJECTS
According to the draft document, even less-critical operations, such as industrial parks and golf clubs, would require the approval of the Ministry.
Vietnam Golf Association reports that the country plans to expand from its current nearly 100 golf courses. Donald Trump's family business is working with a local developer to build a large resort near Hanoi.
The country also hosts large industrial operations of multinationals such as South Korea's Samsung Electronics and Japan's Honda, who are drawn to the low cost of labour but sometimes express concerns about slow project approvals.
According to the proposal, the ministry will, with support from national and local police, determine whether or not security conditions, yet to be defined, are met before projects, including those that involve foreign investors, can proceed.
Unnamed legal consultant in Vietnam, who spoke more freely because he did not want to be identified, said that the decree effectively gave the police the right to veto any project. He also noted that some companies expressed concern about the draft document as they feared it would increase compliance costs and cause delays.
The other corporate, diplomatic, and legal representatives that we contacted about the draft rule declined to comment. Some refused to speak on the matter due to the sensitive nature or lack of clarity surrounding the proposed rule.
The document states that the proposal will include a mechanism for the security ministry to oversee and inspect foreign aid and "to assess comprehensively the impact on security, social stability and safety of foreign-invested project, implemented in key localities and regions, where many workers and labourers live."
In 2019, a similar decree was issued to ensure that defence priorities are taken into consideration for economic projects. However, it gave the Army less explicit powers and was limited in scope. Reporting by Francesco Guarascio, Khanh Vu and Shri Navaratnam.
(source: Reuters)