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Japan's bloated gas stocks add to worldwide surplus: Kemp

Japan's gas stocks are well above regular for the time of year, part of an around the world surplus in action to the duration of exceptionally high costs stemming from Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

Stocks totaled up to 7.6 billion cubic metres at the end of 2023, just fractionally lower than at the end of 2022, according to official information sent to the Joint Organisations Data Effort (JODI).

Stocks were practically 1.7 billion cubic metres (+29% or +3.54 basic variances) above the ten-year seasonal average for 2012-2021 ( World gas database, JODI, Feb. 19, 2024).

Japan's winter has been only slightly milder than usual, with temperature levels above the long-term average on 65 of 114 days since the start of November.

Temperatures have actually surpassed the average by simply 0.8 degrees Celsius up until now in winter season 2023/24, closer to normal than in Europe and The United States And Canada.

Chartbook: Japan gas inventories

Gas usage has actually been greatly minimized by the restart of nuclear systems and the release of more solar generators.

Gas-fired generation was 16% lower in the first eleven months of 2023 compared with the very same duration of 2020, falling to 262 billion kilowatt-hours (kWh) from 314 billion.

Nuclear output rose by 30 billion kWh over the duration, and solar by 26 billion kWh.

As an outcome, imports of melted gas (LNG) were lowered by 18% to 87.9 billion cubic metres in 2023 from 107.3 bcm in 2020.

The majority of LNG is imported on long-term agreements tied to oil prices, but spot prices have actually fallen sharply considering that the middle of 2022.

The decline reflects the high level of domestic stocks but has been mainly driven by the much bigger surpluses in North America and Europe.

LNG futures for delivery to Northeast Asia in April 2024 are trading around $8 per million British thermal systems, below almost $18 in late October.

Japan is gaining from an around the world glut that is requiring costs lower to curb production in The United States and Canada and motivate more gas-fired generation and commercial use across Europe and Northeast Asia.

Related columns:

- El Niño presses real U.S. gas prices to multi-decade low ( February 16, 2024

- Europe's inflamed gas stocks drive prices lower (February. 13, 2024)

John Kemp is a market analyst. The views expressed. are his own. Follow his commentary on X https://twitter.com/JKempEnergy.

(source: Reuters)