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Thailand's central bank reduces growth for 2026, but says there are no limits to the worst-case scenario if war continues

Thailand's growth will be slower this year due to the Iran conflict and there are "nearly no limits" in worst-case scenarios if the conflict continues. A senior central bank official said.

The Assistant Governor Chayawadee Chaianant stated that the growth of the Southeast Asian nation was slowing. This is because the country's economy, which is highly exposed to global economic conditions due to its high dependence on imported energy imports, has a low rate of growth. The U.S./Israeli war against Iran has led to a decline in tourism and an increase in import costs.

Chai-anant, on the sidelines at the IMF/World Bank spring meeting in Washington, said: "It will be the downward trend of a lot of things."

She said that tourism from Gulf countries fell to almost zero in March as Iranian attacks closed regional airports. These numbers are still not fully recovered, and their wealthy visitors account for about 7% of the total tourism expenditure in Thailand.

As fuel prices rise, the number of tourists driving from Malaysia to Thailand is also decreasing.

The central bank has revised its baseline GDP growth forecasts to 1.3% for 2026, if the war ends by the second half this year. In December, the central bank had predicted a growth rate of 1.9%. However, in February the government raised its forecast to between 1.5% and 2.5%. In this scenario, inflation is expected to reach 3.5%.

She said that Thailand's position as a country at the beginning of the crisis helped it to absorb the shock. However, the economy was under severe pressure.

There are no limits when it comes to the "worst case scenarios". She said, "It's really bad."

She said policymakers expected a current account positive of about $12 billion for the entire year. However, that figure would need to be revised downward. She didn't rule out that the account could go negative.

Even then, the bank governor said, a rate increase would not be enough to combat supply-driven inflation.

Chai-anant stated that the sharp outflows of equity and debt in Thailand between February and March could be managed and have already returned to positive territory in April.

She said that the Fund’s autumn meetings in Bangkok, which will be held in October, would give global officials the chance to meet those who are “severely affected by the conflict,” but that she was confident the economy would find a way forward by that time.

She said: "We can show that Asian countries have very strong fundamentals and are agile when it comes to adaptation." (Reporting and editing by Lisa Shumaker; Libby George)

(source: Reuters)