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Iran war closes US to being net crude exporter first time since World War Two
Last week, the U.S. almost became a net oil exporter for the first since World War Two. Shipments surged to near-record highs to meet the demand of Asian and European buyers scrambling in order to replace Middle East supply?cut off by the Iran War. The U.S.-Israeli war against?Iran has caused the biggest ever disruption in the global energy markets. Iranian threats have stopped a fifth of oil and gas from the world transiting through the Strait of Hormuz. Refiners who depend on these supplies in Asia and Europe have purchased alternative cargoes wherever possible, thereby boosting the demand for oil produced by the United States, the largest producer of the world. Analysts and traders claim that the U.S. export capacity is quickly approaching. According to U.S. data released Wednesday, net imports of crude, or the difference between exports and imports, decreased to 66,000 barrels daily last week, the lowest ever recorded in weekly data dating back to 2001. Meanwhile, exports increased to 5.2 millions bpd, which is the highest since seven months. Data showed that the U.S. last exported crude oil on an annual basis in 1943. Janiv Shah, Rystad's vice president for oil markets and the Atlantic Basin, says that rising U.S. crude oil exports show that buyers in Asia are looking further out to find available oil, as regional differences in oil prices cover shipping costs. In recent months, countries such as Greece purchased U.S. crude oil for the first time. According to the ship tracking service Kpler, about 2.4 million barrels per day, or 47%, of U.S. imports last week went to Europe. About 37% of the U.S. exports last week, or 1.49 million bpd (about 1.4 million bpd), went to Asia. This is up from 30% one year ago. The Netherlands, Japan France Germany and South Korea were the top buyers. Kpler data revealed that a vessel with 500,000 barrels was on its way to Turkey. This would be the first U.S. import to Turkey in at least one year. BENCHMARK BRENT SOARING MAKES US OIL ATTRACIVE Imports into the U.S. dropped more than one million bpd, to 5.3 millions bpd, last week. The U.S. imports much of its crude because its refineries can only handle heavier grades, which are more sour than the lighter sweet crude that it produces. Last month, the disruption in Middle East oil supplies blew up the Brent crude premium over U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude Futures to $20.69 per barrel, which reduced U.S. buyer's appetite for imports while making U.S. Crude attractive to refiners across Europe and Asia. According to LSEG traders and data, the price of crude oil?cargoes destined for immediate delivery in Europe reached a new high on Monday. Exports are approaching capacity Matt Smith, a Kpler analyst, said that U.S. exports will likely reach 5.2 million bpd in April. Smith added that monthly, exports have been pushing against their capacity limits. Analysts and traders said that the U.S. could export up to 6 million barrels per day, citing the limited capacity of pipelines and vessels. Government data shows that its exports reached a record of?5.6m bpd by 2023. The market has already tested the export limit with 5.2m bpd last week. "Every incremental barrel costs more than the previous one in terms of freight and logistics," said Bekzod Zhritdinov. Shah of Rystad said that a release of'medium-sour crude' from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve would allow more U.S. crudes with low sulfur to be exported. He added that a shortage in tankers and higher freight costs could affect the export demand. As of Wednesday, about 80 supertankers with empty cargo were headed to the Gulf of Mexico, where they will likely pick up crude oil in April and May. Rohit Rathod is a senior analyst for Vortexa.
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Copper continues to gain on the hopes of US-Iran Peace Deal
The copper price rose on Thursday, trading 'close to six-week-highs'. This was largely due to the prospect of a U.S. peace agreement with Iran to end the war. As of 0137 GMT the most traded?copper contracts?on Shanghai Futures Exchange were up 0.11% to 102,390 Yuan ($15,014.96) a metric ton after reaching its highest level since March 3, at 103130 yuan on Wednesday. Benchmark three-month Copper on the London Metal Exchange increased 0.4% to $13,300.5 a ton. This is close to $13,392.5 - a six-week-high reached on Wednesday. The 'Trump Administration' expressed optimism about a possible deal to end the war with Iran on Wednesday, but warned of increased?economic pressure if Tehran continues to be defiant. "The prospect that the Middle East conflict will end has eased fears of a slowdown in economic growth and a drop in demand," ANZ analyst said in a recent note. Citi has adjusted its 0-3 months copper price forecast at $13,000 a metric tonne and increased forecasts for a number of 'other industrial metals. Citing the de-escalation of the 'U.S.Iran conflict, which has reduced the risk that a global shock to growth and demand will occur. SHFE aluminium increased by 1.89%. Nickel added 0.26%. Lead gained 1.53%. Zinc advanced 0.93%. Tin fell 0.72%. ($1 = 6.8192 Chinese yuan) (Reporting by Amy Lv and Tony Munroe; Editing by Subhranshu Sahu) $1 = 6.8192 Chinese Yuan (Reporting and editing by Amy Lv, Tony Munroe)
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One dead and 10 injured after Russian missiles strike Ukraine's Kyiv
Mayor Vitali Klitschko reported that Russian forces launched missiles at the Ukrainian capital Kyiv early on Thursday morning, killing one?12-year old?child and injuring several others, including members of emergency services, as well as damaging buildings. Klitschko wrote on Telegram that a 12-year old child was killed as a result the enemy's attack. At the moment, ten people are injured. This includes several medical personnel. Klitschko stated that rescue teams had rescued "a mother and child" from a badly damaged building located in the central district. He?also stated that a?missile hit the sixth-floor of an apartment in central Podil. Klitschko stated that a large fire broke out in an?area in the north of capital. Four emergency medical workers were injured, and debris fell in several locations. Oleksandr Ganzha, the regional governor, wrote on Telegram that Russian attacks also triggered major fires, injuring five people in Dnipro. Images posted online show buildings on fire. Officials in Kharkiv - Ukraine's second biggest city - have confirmed that two people were injured by drone strikes. Reporting by Ron Popeski, Editing by Muralikumar Aantharaman and Raju Gopikrishnan
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Oil prices drop as US-Iran agreement hopes outweigh concerns about supply disruption
Early Thursday, oil prices dropped as the 'hopes for a thawing of U.S. - Iran tensions', following reports that Iran would allow?ships around the Strait of Hormuz to pass, outweighed concerns about?ongoing disruptions in supply. Brent crude futures fell 44 cents or 0.5% to $94.49 per barrel at 0021 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude Futures were down 70 cents or 0.8% at $90.59 per barrel. Both benchmarks settled with little change on Wednesday. On Wednesday, the White House expressed optimism about a possible deal with Iran to end this war. It also warned that if Tehran continues to be defiant, it would face increased economic pressure. Tehran informed a source that Iran would consider allowing ships to pass freely through the Omani side of Strait of Hormuz in the event of a deal to end the conflict. Toshitaka?Tazawa, an economist at Fujitomi Securities, said that while there is hope for de-escalation many investors are still sceptical. He added that WTI prices will continue to fluctuate between $80 and $110 until a peace agreement is reached and the free navigation of the Strait is restored. U.S. and Israeli war against Iran resulted in largest ever disruption to global oil and gas supply due to Iran's blocking of traffic through the strait. The strait handles around 20% of world oil and liquefied 'natural gas' flows. U.S. officials and Iranian officials are considering a trip to Pakistan this weekend for more talks after Sunday's negotiations ended without a breakthrough. The chief of Pakistan's Army arrived in Tehran, Iran on Wednesday as a mediator to "try to prevent" a renewed conflict. The U.S. military has said that the blockade on shipping leaving Iranian ports has stopped all trade entering and exiting Iran by sea. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced on Wednesday that Washington would not renew waivers which allowed some oil to be purchased from?Iran and Russia without facing U.S. sanctions. The U.S. Energy?Administration reported on Wednesday that crude oil inventories had fallen by 913,000 to 463.8 million in the week ending April 10. This was in contrast with the 154,000 barrels analysts expected in a survey. (Reporting and editing by Yuka Obayashi.
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Asia markets advance on peace deal hopes, corporate earnings
The stock market rose in the early Asia trading on Thursday, as traders prepared for a series of important earnings reports and economic data. The broadest MSCI index of Asia-Pacific stocks outside Japan rose 0.3%. This puts the benchmark on course for a third day of gains. Japan's Nikkei gained 1.5%. S&P 500 futures e-mini rose 0.1%. The S&P 500 gained 0.8% overnight and the Nasdaq Composite 1.6% as Bank of America's and Morgan Stanley's strong quarterly earnings pushed the indexes up to new highs. Around 6% of companies reported earnings for the third quarter.?84% of them beat analysts' expectations. Goldman Sachs analysts wrote that they were "generally" positive on stocks in emerging markets, as the "underlying profit growth?is likely to remain strong." The region's earnings will be driven by AI-related demands, which are relatively protected from the direct effects of the oil crisis. The Australian jobs numbers and the Chinese GDP are due to be released. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC), a pillar of the AI industry, will release its quarterly 'earnings. A 50% increase in net profit is expected due to a surge in demand for their?advanced chip. Oil markets saw Brent crude open 0.4% lower, at $94.55 per barrel. A?source briefed from Tehran said that Iran might 'consider' allowing ships to freely sail through the Omani-side of the Strait of Hormuz without risk of attack. This is part of a proposal it made in negotiations with the United States. Gold recovered 0.8%, to $4,829.24. In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin remained flat at $74,832.83 while ether fell 0.1%, to $2,360.71. (Reporting and editing by William Mallard; Reporting by Gregor Stuart Hunter)
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KGHM, a Polish copper miner, is looking to locate its copper mines nearer to home in order to reduce logistic costs
The CEO of KGHM said that the company is 'looking to invest in mining in Europe and Morocco in order to secure ore supplies closer to its smelting base and reduce logistics costs. KGHM operates the Robinson Mine in the U.S. and has 55% of Sierra Gorda, Chile, on top of their Polish assets. Last month, they signed a Memorandum of Understanding with Morocco's National Office of Hydrocarbons and Mines and Moroccan Mining Firm Managem Group?on the cooperation in raw materials. In an interview with the Chilean branch of KGHM in 'Santiago,' CEO Remigiusz Pazkiewicz said: "We are seeking opportunities to have resources closer to our smelting plants in Poland." "Morocco's a good country." We have an opportunity in Europe. He declined to name the?European firm KGHM that KGHM is looking at. Paszkiewicz stated that KGHM had dispatched geologists in Morocco to gather an initial report. The results could be available within the next two weeks. He explained that the Moroccan mine would be a source of supplies for the global market and KGHM as they want to remain active in the trading of concentrates. Just under half of KGHM's copper production of 710,000 metric tonnes in 2025 will come from its own concentrats, he explained. KGHM, a state-backed company, plans to continue investing?in Polish mines, while also looking at other opportunities in Chile?and Argentina. He added that "but we see the world still changing", raising the possibility of converting KGHM Legnica Copper Smelter into a recycling plant. Paszkiewicz stated that "probably it's... written in the draft of our strategy that we will move in the direction where Legnica is recycling, and Glogow is?our main melting factory." KGHM 'will unveil its new strategic direction at the end of a quarter. Paszkiewicz added that the company was also interested in extending its "production chains" in the United States. He stressed, however, that this does not necessarily mean building copper smelters there. (Reporting and editing by Tom Daly.)
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Duke Energy wants to increase prices in North Carolina for winter power costs
Duke Energy is seeking approval from North Carolina regulators for an increase in 'its prices' and to recover $800 million more from its customers due to a?higher cost of fuel and power during a severe winter cold snap. On Wednesday, the company said it was attempting to recover winter power and fuel costs of about $500 million for Duke Energy Carolinas and $309 million for Duke Energy Progress. If approved, this would increase monthly bills from June 1 by approximately $6.90 or $7.88. Duke Energy Carolinas supplies approximately 2.3 million customers throughout central and western North Carolina, while Duke Energy Progress serves about 1.6 millions in the eastern and central parts of the state. The company stated that the extreme cold of late January and early Februar drove the demand for power beyond the existing 'generation and storage capacity. It forced it to purchase additional power at high market rates from neighboring utilities. Duke Energy has proposed spreading recovery over a 19-month period instead of the usual?12 months to minimize the immediate impact on customers. The company said that electricity demand reached a new "winter high" of 37,308 Megawatt-hours on January 27. This was the highest ever recorded level across Duke Energy's Carolinas System. Varun Sahay, Bengaluru. Pooja Deai, editing.
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US warns Iranian oil buyers that sanctions could be imposed
The United States on Wednesday warned that it would sanction any buyers of Iranian Oil and stated its belief that China will stop such purchases if Washington enforces the maritime blockade against Iran. Scott Bessent, U.S. Treasury Secretary, told reporters at White House that "we have informed countries that we will apply secondary sanctions if they are buying Iranian oil or if Iranian money sits in their banks." As the Iran War entered its seventh week, the U.S. began a maritime blockade against Iran on Monday. China had previously purchased more than 80% Iran's oil. Bessent stated, "We are confident that this 'blockade' will cause a halt in Chinese purchases." He added that the U.S. Treasury had also written two Chinese banks, telling them "that if we could prove that Iranian money was flowing through their accounts, we would be willing to impose secondary sanctions." The Chinese embassy in the United States has not responded to a comment request on Bessent’s remarks. The Trump administration has said for years that it will apply "maximum" pressure on Iran regarding its nuclear program and support of militants in the Middle East. However, sanctioned crude oil continues to reach China. On Wednesday, the U.S. Treasury Department imposed?sanctions' on over two dozen individuals and companies, as well as vessels, to target Iran's oil transport infrastructure. Bessent stated that last month, Washington had issued a waiver of 30 days on sanctions against Iranian oil on the sea. This allowed 140 million barrels of Iranian oil to reach global markets to'relieve global pressure on energy supplies caused by war. Bessent confirmed Wednesday that the waiver issued on March 20, which was set to expire on April 19, will not be renewed. This news was reported on Tuesday. The U.S. has also not renewed waivers on Russian oil on the sea that expired on Saturday. The U.S. Treasury also reportedly sent letters to China and Hong Kong as well as the UAE and Oman warning them that if they continue with their illicit Iranian activity, punitive U.S. sanctions will be taken against them.
Thailand's central bank reduces growth for 2026, but says there are no limits to the worst-case scenario if war continues
Thailand's growth will be slower this year due to the Iran conflict and there are "nearly no limits" in worst-case scenarios if the conflict continues. A senior central bank official said.
The Assistant Governor Chayawadee Chaianant stated that the growth of the Southeast Asian nation was slowing. This is because the country's economy, which is highly exposed to global economic conditions due to its high dependence on imported energy imports, has a low rate of growth. The U.S./Israeli war against Iran has led to a decline in tourism and an increase in import costs.
Chai-anant, on the sidelines at the IMF/World Bank spring meeting in Washington, said: "It will be the downward trend of a lot of things."
She said that tourism from Gulf countries fell to almost zero in March as Iranian attacks closed regional airports. These numbers are still not fully recovered, and their wealthy visitors account for about 7% of the total tourism expenditure in Thailand.
As fuel prices rise, the number of tourists driving from Malaysia to Thailand is also decreasing.
The central bank has revised its baseline GDP growth forecasts to 1.3% for 2026, if the war ends by the second half this year. In December, the central bank had predicted a growth rate of 1.9%. However, in February the government raised its forecast to between 1.5% and 2.5%. In this scenario, inflation is expected to reach 3.5%.
She said that Thailand's position as a country at the beginning of the crisis helped it to absorb the shock. However, the economy was under severe pressure.
There are no limits when it comes to the "worst case scenarios". She said, "It's really bad."
She said policymakers expected a current account positive of about $12 billion for the entire year. However, that figure would need to be revised downward. She didn't rule out that the account could go negative.
Even then, the bank governor said, a rate increase would not be enough to combat supply-driven inflation.
Chai-anant stated that the sharp outflows of equity and debt in Thailand between February and March could be managed and have already returned to positive territory in April.
She said that the Fund’s autumn meetings in Bangkok, which will be held in October, would give global officials the chance to meet those who are “severely affected by the conflict,” but that she was confident the economy would find a way forward by that time.
She said: "We can show that Asian countries have very strong fundamentals and are agile when it comes to adaptation." (Reporting and editing by Lisa Shumaker; Libby George)
(source: Reuters)