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How long can Wall Street ignore Trump's "visible hand"? McGeever

If the record high U.S. stocks prices accurately reflect the investors' assessment of Trump 2.0's first year, it is a glowing scorecard of the most interventionist administration in decades.

The U.S. President, who has become the market activist in chief, is yet another example of a topsy-turvy world of economics. Global norms and orthodoxies from the past 40 years are now being questioned.

Donald Trump has directed the U.S. Government to take direct equity stakes in businesses, to call for CEO firings, to try to dictate compensation to CEOs, to ensure that the government receives a cut from Big Tech chip sales, and to seek to fire Federal Reserve officials.

Trump also ordered the purchase $200 billion in mortgage-backed securities. He directed U.S. Oil companies to conduct activities in Venezuela. He tried to stop defense firms from purchasing back shares until they increased production. And he called for an annual cap on credit card interest rates, as his Justice Department threatened to indict Fed chair Jerome Powell. That's only a few of the things that have happened in the last week.

INEFFICIENT MARKET HYPOTHESIS?

Imagine an alternate future in which Kamala Harris wins the 2024 U.S. Presidential election, and is now entering her first year of office after pursuing a?similarly unorthodox clutch of controversial policies. Would the markets shrug this off?

We'll never know. But it is reasonable to assume there would have been a noticeable pushback by investors.

In reality, aside from the short turmoil that followed Trump's "Liberation Day Tariff" announcement in April, the world has been relatively calm.

Last year was indeed a record-breaking year for stocks, and other asset classes. According to HFR, hedge funds, which are not fans of government interference in the "free market" and private sector, saw their assets under management reach $5 trillion.

William Henagan is a research fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. He agrees that it's a bit of a "conundrum", given the Trump administration's high-interventionist approach towards Wall Street and Main Street.

Henagan explains that investors don't necessarily perceive the market interventions to be a substantial erosion of the rule of law, and the property rights which underpin the financial markets and economic system.

Perhaps public markets aren't the most efficient or all-seeing.

Investors ignore erosion of these fundamentals at their peril.

CASE FOR DEFENSE

The question of market confidence can be binary. Investors are confident in the market structure and financial system, until they lose it.

Government intervention in the market economy is not a new thing, and it is also not a bad idea. Many sectors are in favor of it and it is sometimes necessary to ensure national security, energy safety, or a social safety network.

A year into Trump's second tenure, "many parts" of USA Inc are feeling the "visible hand", shoving aside Adam Smith's invisible hand, which was based on the theory of free markets.

Trump's capriciousness is still able to cause volatility in certain sectors and stocks. Lockheed Martin shares fell?7% on Wednesday night after Trump announced he would stop defense firms from paying dividends or buying back stock. They then recovered 8% after hours trading when Trump demanded that the defense budget be increased by 50% to $1.5 trillion.

The broader market is continuing to grow on the backs of short-term optimism and momentum. This seems unaffected even by the most aggressive administration in recent decades. Wall Street did lag behind its global counterparts last year, but not by much. This could be a sign of Trump's visible influence on investors. But, at least for the moment, there is no flashing warning light.

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(source: Reuters)