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Argentina markets continue to rise ahead of Trump-Milei Meeting

Argentina's bonds and stocks soared on Tuesday, extending gains from the previous session. The expected meeting between U.S. president Donald Trump and Argentinean leader Javier Milei is expected to take place. Dollar bonds, the stock market, and the peso all rose on Monday, after U.S. Treasury secretary Scott Bessent stated that "all options" were available to Argentina. This included swap lines and direct currency purchase from Washington.

MarketAxess data showed that Tuesday's bond moves lifted them up by as much as 2.3c before they began to retrace some of their gains. They were still more than one cent higher on the dollar.

In premarket trading, shares of Argentine firms listed in the U.S. also increased. Banco BBVA Argentina jumped 6% while Grupo Financiero Galacia climbed 2%. Energy firm YPF gained a further 2.5%. The gains on Monday were 15% for an index of Argentine shares trading on U.S. markets.

What will the US support look like?

The embattled currency of Argentina, the peso, has gained nearly 5% against the dollar. This is a dramatic reversal, after the Argentinean central bank burned through over $1 billion in reserves last week to defend the currency.

Investors speculated on the size and shape of the Trump administration's support for Argentina due to the lack of details.

Simon Waever is a Morgan Stanley strategist and said that the U.S. announcement of support was significant.

"A loan tied to future U.S. investment seems more realistic than buying ARS or a swap. Argentina renewed a swap line of $5 billion with China's central banks earlier this year. This is part of a $18 billion overall facility with the PBOC, which has helped Argentina shore up its reserves but also attracted ire from Washington.

Concerns over MILEI’s ability to keep reforms on track

In recent years, the financial assets of Argentina have experienced a rollercoaster ride. Argentina is a serial defaulter.

Since Milei took office as president in December 2023, and began an ambitious reform program, investors have generally warmed up to Argentina.

The markets have been falling sharply over the past few weeks. International bonds are still near 10% down for the year, and the peso is under pressure due to corruption allegations within Milei's inner-circle and a bigger-than-expected defeat in a local Buenos Aires election that raised concerns about his ability reshape an economy. (Reporting and editing by Marc Jones; Additional reporting by Nikhil Singh; Reporting by Karin Strohecker)

(source: Reuters)