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Iron ore demand is sluggish as Trump's tariff threats fuel concerns
The price of iron ore futures was subdued Tuesday as new tariff threats by U.S. president Donald Trump fueled concerns about demand prospects. After touching its highest level since August 14, the most-traded contract for January iron ore on China's Dalian Commodity Exchange closed daytime trading 0.7% lower at 776.5 Yuan ($108.56). As of 0654 GMT, the benchmark September iron ore traded on Singapore Exchange was down by 0.93% to $102.3 per ton. Trump stated on Monday that China must give magnets to the United States or "we will have to charge them a 200% tariff" or something similar, amid a dispute over trade between the two countries. Trump has also threatened to impose "subsequent tariffs" on goods from countries with digital taxes if they do not repeal the legislation. These threats were made after the U.S. concluded trade agreements with several countries and areas after multiple rounds. This eased fears of a recession in the world that would hurt commodity demand. The price of iron ore has fallen in the last year due to a decline in demand from China, its largest consumer. China is struggling with deflation as well as low consumer confidence. The lower iron ore price has squeezed the profits of major miners. Fortescue, a mining company in Australia, reported its lowest annual profit in 6 years. BHP's profit was the lowest it has been in 5 years. Coking coal, coke and other steelmaking components on the DCE have erased their earlier gains, falling by 3.17% and 2.41 %, respectively. The Shanghai Futures Exchange saw a decline in most steel benchmarks. Wire rod, hot-rolled steel coil, and rebar all fell by 0.89%.
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India exports are hit by new US tariffs that will be implemented on Wednesday
Indian exporters should prepare for disruptions following a U.S. Homeland Security confirmed that Washington will impose an extra 25% tariff on all Indian origin goods starting Wednesday, increasing trade pressure against the Asian nation. U.S. exports to India will be subject to duties up 50%, among the highest Washington has imposed. This is in response President Donald Trump's announcement of extra tariffs in punishment for New Delhi purchasing Russian oil. Homeland Security's notice states that the new duties will be applied to goods coming into the U.S. or being withdrawn from storage for consumption as of 12:01 am EDT or 9:31 am IST on Wednesday. In early trading, the Indian rupee fell 0.2% to 87.75 US dollars per dollar, even though the greenback was falling against other currencies. The benchmark equity indices were trading at a 0.7% decline. White House trade advisor Peter Navarro, along with U.S. Treasury Sec. Scott Bessent, have accused India indirectly funding Russia's conflict against Ukraine through increased Russian oil purchases. They said this must stop. Bessent said earlier this month that India profited from its dramatically increased purchases of Russian crude oil. This now accounts for 42 percent of India's overall oil imports. Before the war, it was only 1%. Washington called this shift unacceptable. The Indian Commerce Ministry has not responded to an email asking for comment about the latest notification. The government does not expect any relief in the short term or a delay of U.S. Tariffs, said an official from the Commerce Ministry who spoke under condition of anonymity as they were not authorized to speak with media. The official said that exporters who are hit by tariffs will receive financial assistance, and they will be encouraged to diversify their markets to include China, Latin America, and the Middle East. The government has identified more than 50 countries to increase Indian exports. This includes textiles, food products, leather products, and marine products. EXPORTERS Seek Aid Exporter groups estimate that the hikes will affect 55% of India’s $87 billion worth of merchandise exports to America, but benefit competitors like Vietnam, Bangladesh, and China. The U.S. customer has already stopped placing new orders. Exports could drop by 20-30% with these new tariffs from September, said Pankaj Chadha. Chadha said that the government had promised financial assistance, including increased subsidies for bank loans and support to diversify in the event financial losses. He said that exporters saw limited opportunities to diversify into other markets or sell on the domestic market. India exports Diamond Industry The demand for gems and jewellery has already fallen to its lowest level in two decades due to weak Chinese demand. Now, higher tariffs could cut off access to the largest market that accounts for almost a third (28,5 billion dollars) of the annual shipment. BROADER ECONOMIC IMPACT Private analysts warn of the impact a sustained tariff of 50% could have on India's economic and corporate profits – resulting in the steepest downgrades to earnings in Asia – even if domestic tax reductions are proposed. Capital Economics stated last week that the economic growth of India would be affected by 0.8 percentage points if all U.S. Tariffs were implemented this year and in 2019. Last week, Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar stated that trade negotiations were in progress and that Washington’s concerns over Russian oil purchases did not apply to other major purchasers such as China and Europe. As of yet, the government has not issued any directives regarding the purchase of oil from Russia. Three sources from the refining industry said that companies will continue to purchase oil based on economics. After five rounds of negotiations with the United States, Indian officials expressed confidence that they would be able to reach a favorable deal. They even told the media the tariffs might be limited to 15%. Both sides claimed that a combination of political misjudgment and missed signals, as well as bitterness, led to the collapse of the deal between two world economies with bilateral trade worth more than $190 billion. Narendra Modi, the Indian Prime Minister, has pledged to not compromise the interests and livelihoods of farmers in India even if it means paying a high price. Modi also plans to visit China for the first time in seven years at the end of this month. (Reporting and editing by Lincoln Feast and Sam Holmes; Additional reporting by Nidhi verma.
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Media report: Australian police are hunting a gunman who killed two officers in a rural town.
Local media reported that Australian police were hunting for a gunman, who killed two officers on Tuesday and injured another as they attempted to serve a court warrant to a man accused of historical sex assault at a rural property located in Victoria. Victoria Police issued a social media statement in which they said that an active incident was taking place in the alpine village of Porepunkah. This is located about 300 km north-east from Melbourne. They asked the public to avoid this area. The police have not disclosed any details about the incident. The Age, a local media outlet, reported that two police officers were killed and another injured in an ambush when they visited the property. The Age reported that heavily armed Special Operations Group officers were deployed on the scene, and the gunman is now running with his family members including children. Australian Broadcasting Corporation reported that police believed the shooter was a "sovereign" citizen. Sovereign Citizens believe that the government is unlegitimate. Reece Kershaw, the Australian Federal Police Commissioner, said that there were "grave" concerns for the officers involved. Kershaw told a press conference that "just from the police-blue family, as well as the larger family in Australia and abroad, our thoughts are with Victoria Police right now." Porepunkah, a town in Australia with 1,000 residents, is situated at the foot of Australia's mountain ranges. Today has been a sad and shocking day for our community. "We extend our sincere condolences and deepest sympathies to the families, colleagues, friends and co-workers of the two officers tragically murdered in Porepunkah," said Mayor Sarah Nicholas in a press release. Nicholas said that the local council's services in the town, including libraries, depots, and information centres, would be closed until further notice. Jill Gillies, principal of Porepunkah primary school in Melbourne, told ABC Radio Melbourne the school had been forced to lockdown. Around 90 students were sheltering inside from 11.30 am (0130 GMT). ABC reported in the past that the lockdown was lifted. Due to ongoing emergency responses, the local airfield was also closed. Christine Chen, Sydney (reporter); Michael Perry (editor)
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India's diamond hub is awash with empty offices and lost orders as US tariffs threaten
Surat Diamond Bourse is eerily silent, with just a few traders working. It's billed as being the largest office complex in the world, surpassing the Pentagon. The business climate is slow and the outlook is dim. India's diamond exports have already reached a two-decade-low due to weak Chinese demand. Now, higher tariffs under U.S. president Donald Trump threatens to cut off access to the largest market in India, which accounts nearly a quarter of its $28.5billion annual shipments. The looming U.S. Tariffs have shaken the confidence of buyers in Surat, which is where over 80% of all rough diamonds in the world are cut and polissed. While smaller exporters are less able to absorb the impact, some larger players plan to move part of their operations into countries such as Botswana which has a 15% lower U.S. duty. India's 25% tariff will double on August 27. Hitesh Patel, the managing director of Dharmanandan Diamonds said that if tariffs continue, they may increase production. The company expects its annual revenue to be reduced by 20-25%. Shaunak Parikh said that the industry is also responding to the slower demand by reducing working days and hours. A bourse official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said that more than 4,700 offices had been sold at the Surat Diamond Bourse. However, less than 250 were actually in use, and several companies have re-evaluated their plans for moving in. The owner of Mumbai's diamond firm who purchased space on the bourse in last year said that he had put off relocation plans. "U.S. Tariffs have already shaken up our business and we do not want to add the hassle of moving to Surat from Mumbai," he said. He requested anonymity in order to protect his company's identity. Narendra Modi, Prime Minister of India, had inaugurated the Surat Diamond Bourse in December 2023. It was built on 6.7 million square foot, which is more than the Pentagon. The sprawling bourse, which consists of nine interconnected towers with each having 15 floors, boasts gleaming facades and houses banks, vaults and customs offices. It is designed to be a hub for the diamond industry worldwide. LITTLE SPARKLE AFTER THE HIGH SEASON Surat workers typically increase production at this time of the year to meet an influx of orders coming from the United States in advance of Christmas and New Year. Many artisans, however, are unsure if they will have any work this year. "Demand is so low that the diamond packs I sold last year for 25,000 rupees (285.84 dollars) now fetch barely 18,000," said Shailesh Manngukiya who runs a cutting-and-polishing unit in Surat in Gujarat, Modi's native state in India's West. Mangukiya announced that he has reduced his staff to 125. GJEPC's Parikh stated that if there is no trade agreement between India and the U.S. for lower tariffs, then 150,000 to 200 000 workers may lose their jobs. Industry officials say that, as a result of tariffs, U.S. diamond buyers will likely source their diamonds from Israel, Belgium, and Botswana. Exporters say it is difficult to find new diamond buyers in India to compensate for the loss of sales to the United States. Exporters say that the industry has reduced its purchases of rough diamonds and is operating with minimal inventory to conserve cash flow. Cash-strapped small units are offering steep discounts to remain afloat. India's domestic market is the only bright spot. The demand for diamonds continues to grow in India. This country recently overtook China, the second largest market in the world, according to Hitesh Sha, a partner of Venus Jewel which supplies luxury brands like Tiffany & Co. Shah explained that the Indian market is compensating for the American demand loss. Reporting by Bansari Mayur kamdar and Rajendra jadhav, Editing by Mayank bhardwaj, Himani sarkar.
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China's carbon markets will introduce absolute emission caps in 2027
China will tighten up its carbon trading market, introducing absolute emission caps for the first-time in certain industries starting 2027. This was announced by China's Cabinet on Monday night. According to an opinion by the State Council, the absolute emissions caps will first be implemented in industries that have relatively stable carbon emission levels by 2027. China's national carbon market (ETS), or emissions trading scheme, will be largely established by 2030 with absolute emission caps and a mixture of free and paid allowances for carbon emissions (CEAs), the State Council said. CEAs currently are based more on benchmarks for carbon intensity that are gradually reduced, than absolute emission caps. A quota is given to each company and, if the actual emissions are higher than the quota in a compliance period, the company must purchase more allowances on the market. If the company's emissions are lower than expected, they can sell their excess CEAs. According to the opinion, without mentioning specific industries, by 2027 the ETS will cover all major industries that emit carbon. Analysts said that chemicals, petrochemicals and papermaking, as well as domestic aviation, would be included in the scheme. Analysts say that, despite the fact that China announced a previous expansion of its carbon market in September to include the industries of steel, aluminium, and cement, which would account for about 60% of China's greenhouse gas emission, the market's large number of free allowances has had a minimal impact on China's emissions. The ETS first came into effect in July 2021, and covered only the electricity sector.
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MORNING BID EUROPE - Markets once again ask Trump: "Can he do this?"
Rocky Swift gives us a look at what the future holds for European and global markets. The markets like when central banks are able to steer economic policy without interference from politics, and they value data that is in line with reality. This faith helped the global stock market reach successive records highs in this month. But it was again shaken by Donald Trump's attack on the independence the U.S. Central Bank. Stock futures and equity markets in Europe and America fell after Trump announced he would fire Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook for alleged irregularities in obtaining mortgages. After the news, long-term Treasuries dropped while short-term debt increased. This shows both a diminished confidence in the United States' long-term credit and an increased certainty that Trump will receive the "rocket-fuel" Fed rate reductions he has been seeking. Fed Funds futures are priced with 83% probability of a rate cut in September, according to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool. Trump, who last week was relieved of his penalty but not found guilty of fraud for his own property deals, wrote to Cook in which he said that the "American people must have complete confidence in the honesty of those who set policy." Cook, who has a term that runs until 2038 at the Fed, has vowed to remain, claiming the president does not have the authority to remove Cook. The legality of this move is not clear, but it follows a series of threats to remove Fed chair Jerome Powell. Trump does not have the legal authority, except for "cause", to dismiss the Fed chairman. This, along with the Fed's chief's expiring term in May, has tempered Trump's attacks on the central bank. The official of the Labor Department who was fired this month for delivering data on jobs that disappointed Trump was not so lucky. Trump continued to play the hit game, threatening new tariffs against countries with digital taxes. This is another headache for the European Union. The Trump administration is considering sanctions against EU officials or state officials who are responsible for the implementation of the landmark Digital Services Act. Today's data calendar is very light. The markets are focused on Nvidia’s quarterly earnings report on Wednesday. This is a crucial test for the booming artificial intelligence market. Key developments on Tuesday that may influence the markets: – U.S. Treasuries 2-year auction – Earnings from Bank of Montreal and Foot Locker – Riksbank’s minutes of its August 19th monetary policy meeting
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India prepares for export losses as US imposes new steep tariffs on Wednesday
Indian exporters should prepare for disruptions following a U.S. Homeland Security confirmed that Washington will impose a 25% additional tariff on all Indian origin goods starting Wednesday. This will increase trade pressure against the Asian nation. Indian exports could face U.S. tariffs of up to 50 percent - one of the highest Washington has imposed - following President Donald Trump's announcement of extra tariffs in response to New Delhi's increased purchase of Russian oil. According to Homeland Security's notice, the new duties apply to goods that are imported into the U.S. or removed from warehouses for consumption as of 12:01 am EDT Wednesday or 9:31 pm IST. In the opening of trading, the Indian rupee fell 0.17% against the U.S. Dollar to 87.7275. The greenback also declined against other currencies. In the notification, it was stated that exceptions included in-transit shipments that were properly certified, humanitarian aid and items covered by reciprocal trade programmes. The notification reaffirmed that the action was taken in response to India’s indirect support for Russia’s military incursions into Ukraine. The Indian Commerce Ministry has not responded to an email asking for comment about the latest notification. The government does not expect any relief in the short term or a delay of U.S. Tariffs, said an official from the Commerce Ministry who spoke under condition of anonymity as they were not authorized to speak with media. The official said that exporters who are hit by tariffs will receive financial assistance, and they will be encouraged to diversify their markets to include China, Latin America, and the Middle East. The government has identified more than 50 countries to increase Indian exports. This includes textiles, food products, leather goods and marine products. Narendra Modi, the Indian Prime Minister, has pledged to not compromise the interests and livelihoods of farmers in India even if it means paying a high price. Modi also takes cautious steps to ease his relationship with China, with his first trip in seven years scheduled for the end this month. Reporting by Swati Bhath and Manoj Kulkarni; editing by Lincoln Feast.
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Equinor Picks OneSubsea All-Electric Subsea Production System for North Sea Field
OneSubsea, a joint venture formed by SLB, Aker Solutions and Subsea7, has been awarded an engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) contract by Equinor for a 12-well, all-electric Subsea Production System (SPS) in the Fram Sør field, offshore Norway.The award follows a collaborative, year-long Front-End Engineering Design phase, where Equinor and OneSubsea jointly matured the project, culminating in the development plan and final investment decision (FID).As part of the resulting EPC scope, OneSubsea will deliver four subsea templates and 12 all-electric subsea trees, eliminating the need for hydraulic fluid supplied by the host platform and keeping topside modifications to a minimum.This approach is expected to unlock a cost-effective solution for the project while retaining topside space for additional, future expansion projects in the area.The project will be developed as a subsea tieback to the host platform Troll C in the North Sea, contributing to the security of energy supply from the Norwegian continental shelf (NCS) to Europe.Benefitting from a host that is powered from Norwegian shores, the production from Fram Sør will have very low emissions.“Fram Sør is a breakthrough project for our industry, marking the first large-scale all-electric subsea production system. Not only do all-electric subsea solutions significantly reduce topside needs to make large-scale tiebacks such as the Fram Sør development possible, but they also hold the key to unlock more marginal resources through their reduced footprint and simplified operations,” said Mads Hjelmeland, chief executive officer of SLB OneSubsea.The contract is subject to regulatory approval of the plan for development and operations (PDO).
India prepares for export losses as new US tariffs threaten
Indian exporters should prepare for disruptions following a U.S. Homeland Security confirmed that Washington will impose an extra 25% tariff on all Indian origin goods starting Wednesday. This will increase trade pressure against the Asian nation.
After President Donald Trump announced additional tariffs to punish New Delhi for its increased purchases of Russian crude oil in August, Indian exports could face U.S. duty of up 50%. This is among the highest Washington has imposed.
According to Homeland Security's notice, the new duties will be applied to goods that are imported into the U.S. or removed from warehouses to be consumed as of 12:01 am EDT or 9:31 pm IST on Wednesday.
In early trading, the Indian rupee fell 0.2% to 87.75 dollars per Indian rupee. The greenback was also down against other currencies. The benchmark equity indices were trading at a 0.8% decline.
In the notification, it was stated that exceptions included in-transit shipments that were properly certified, humanitarian aid and items covered by reciprocal trade programmes.
The notification reiterated the fact that this action was taken in response to India’s indirect support for Russia’s military incursions into Ukraine.
The Indian Commerce Ministry has not responded to a request for comment regarding the latest notification.
The government does not expect any relief in the short term or a delay of U.S. Tariffs, said an official from the Commerce Ministry who spoke under condition of anonymity as they were not authorized to speak with media.
The official said that exporters who are hit by tariffs will receive financial assistance, and they will be encouraged to diversify their markets to include China, Latin America, and the Middle East.
The government has identified more than 50 countries to increase Indian exports. This includes textiles, food products, leather products, and marine products.
Narendra Modi, the Indian Prime Minister, has pledged to not compromise the interests and livelihoods of farmers in India even if it means paying a high price. Modi also plans to visit China for the first time in seven years at the end of this month.
EXPORTERS Seek Aid
Exporter groups estimate that the hikes will affect 55% of India’s $87 billion worth of merchandise exports to America, but benefit competitors like Vietnam, Bangladesh, and China.
The U.S. customer has already stopped placing new orders. Exports could drop by 20-30% with these new tariffs from September, said Pankaj Chadha.
Chadha said that the government had promised financial assistance, including increased subsidies for bank loans and support to diversify in the event financial losses.
He said that exporters saw limited opportunities to diversify into other markets or sell on the domestic market.
Analysts warn that even though proposed tax cuts in India would partially cushion the impact, a sustained tariff of 50% could have a negative effect on India's corporate profits and economy. This would lead to the steepest downgrades for earnings in Asia.
Capital Economics stated last week that the economic growth of India would be affected by 0.8 percentage points if all U.S. Tariffs were implemented this year and in 2019.
Last week, Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar stated that trade negotiations are still ongoing. He also said that Washington's concerns over Russian oil purchases did not apply to other major purchasers such as China or the European Union.
As of yet, the government has not issued any directives regarding the purchase of oil from Russia. Three refining sources say that companies will continue to purchase oil based on economics. (Reporting and editing by Lincoln Feast, Sam Holmes and Nidhh Verma; Additional reporting by Swati Bha and Manoj Kumar.
(source: Reuters)