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US oil futures draw restored interest from hedge funds: Kemp

Portfolio investors purchased petroleum agreements for the first time in seven weeks as traders squared up short positions ahead of a meeting of OPEC? ministers to decide production policy in the 2nd half of 2024.

Hedge funds and other money supervisors bought the equivalent of 21 million barrels in the 6 most important futures and alternatives agreements over the 7 days ending on May 28.

The purchases were the first after 6 weeks of sales totalling 304 million barrels since April 9, according to records released by ICE Futures Europe and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

Most of the purchases originated from closing out previous bearish short positions (+16 million barrels) instead of developing new bullish long ones (+6 million).

Even after short covering, the combined position was simply 402 million barrels (19th percentile for all weeks because 2013). while bullish longs outnumbered bearish shorts by 2.51:1 (24th. percentile).

Fund supervisors remained sceptical about the possibility of. price increases, even with costs near to the long-term average. and OPEC? ministers signalling they would prolong production. restraint (agreed five days later on).

In the most current week, buying was heavily focused in. NYMEX and ICE WTI (+32 million barrels) with little purchases in. Brent (+2 million) and U.S. diesel (+2 million).

There were sales in both U.S. fuel (-5 million barrels). and European gas oil (-9 million).

Chartbook: Oil and gas positions

Fund supervisors continued to turn far from the Brent. worldwide unrefined criteria and towards the WTI U.S. local. marker.

Funds have acquired 89 million barrels of WTI in the most. recent three weeks while selling 173 million barrels of Brent in. the last 4.

A few of this rotation has actually shown evaporation of the. previous war-risk premium in Brent, as the conflict between. Israel, Iran, Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis has actually been. contained.

However the increased bullishness around WTI could likewise be an. indication of an upcoming capture on deliverable supplies. around the contract's shipment area at Cushing in Oklahoma.

Industrial unrefined inventories at Cushing diminished by nearly 2. million barrels over the seven days ending on May 24, the. biggest drawdown for 17 weeks.

Cushing stocks were 11 million barrels (-25% or -0.76. basic deviations) below the prior 10-year seasonal average.

Even a couple of weeks of exhaustions could leave deliverable. products incredibly low and make the agreement vulnerable to. another capture.

U.S. GAS

Fund managers have become progressively more bullish about. the outlook for U.S. gas costs, expecting that strong need. from gas-fired generators and the reboot of LNG export. facilities will get rid of excess inventories.

Funds acquired the equivalent of 316 billion cubic feet. ( bcf) in the 2 major contracts linked to prices at Henry Center. in Louisiana over the seven days ending on May 28.

Funds have been net buyers in 5 of the current six weeks,. buying an overall of 1,365 bcf given that April 16.

The fund community held a net long position of 881 bcf (53rd. percentile for all weeks since 2010) up from a net short of. 1,675 bcf (3rd percentile) in mid February and the most bullish. position since the end of October 2023.

U.S. working gas stocks were still 616 bcf (+28% or. +1.43 basic deviations) above the previous 10-year average on. May 24.

However the surplus has actually been broadly steady and even narrowed. slightly given that the middle of March, implying production,. consumption and exports are now near balance after big. surpluses in 2023 and early 2024.

If production begins to decrease, following drilling cuts. revealed in February, or usage increases much faster, acquired. stocks are most likely to diminish over the next 9 months,. which has begun to draw funds back into the marketplace.

Related columns:

- Oil market torpor sends investors to other commodities( May. 30, 2024)

- Financiers abandon bullish case for United States gas( May 15,. 2024)

- Formerly bullish investors discard oil as need. disappoints( May 13, 2024)

- Eco-friendly fuels take bite out of U.S. diesel. intake( May 10, 2024)

John Kemp is a market analyst. The views expressed. are his own. Follow his commentary on X https://twitter.com/JKempEnergy.

(source: Reuters)