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Gazprom shares fall to lowest level since 2009
Gazprom shares fell below 100 roubles ($1.35) for the first time since 2009 on Monday, according to data from the Moscow Exchange. Gazprom shares have been hit by a number of factors, including Europe's decision not to buy Russian energy due to the conflict in Ukraine, the decline in oil prices as a result of progress made between the United States, Iran and the United Nations, as well as the failure to sign a new deal for gas with China. Analysts claim that the 'drone attack' on an oil refinery in Moscow, owned by Gazprom neft (the oil arm of Gazprom), last week also affected the public's opinion towards the company. It hasn’t paid dividends for the past few years. Gazprom shares fell 3.67% on the previous day, to '100.65 Roubles.' They had previously touched 99.9 Roubles. Gazprom’s current market value is 2.382 trillion roubles (about 32.15 billion dollars), which is a far cry from the $1 trillion that was promised by the management in 2008.
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UK Minister says EU steel talks may go to the wire
The UK's Industry Minister said on Monday that talks with the EU over steel could be pushed to the wire as Britain faces a?end-of-month deadline for replacing its import protections. He apologized to businesses for the uncertainty. The?trade?rules of Britain, which date back to before Brexit, will expire on 30 June. London has said that the rules will be replaced by a new measure which will reduce the amount of steel imported without tariff and double the duty on any imports that exceed that quota. Details of the measure have not been finalised yet, but there are discussions?about the market access with the European Union. The EU is renewing its steel trading measures amid concerns over dumping, before they expire on the 31st next month. Chris McDonald, the industry minister, said that EU negotiations tend to "go to the wire." He added that they are "confident" that we will be able to reach an agreement in time. I can only apologize to the businesses that find it difficult to plan ahead... but they will have to finish before July 1. British ministers had previously stated that Britain and EU should be able?to agree mutually beneficial exceptions to each others' measures. McDonald, a junior Minister in the Department of Business and Trade said that there was "no chance" of changing the date of July 1. If?Britain did not take action, "the UK would become the global dump for subsidised Steel, which will wipe out our industry 'in very short time. Britain, the EU, and others are moving to protect domestic producers of steel as they express concern about the "dumping" high subsidised steel from countries such as China. McDonald claimed he was sending a message of "continuity" and "certainty" to businesses, despite the chaos caused by Keir's earlier announcement of a timeline for his resignation. (Reporting and editing by Peter Graff. Additional reporting by Sam Tabahriti.
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Arcosa to be acquired by CRH in an all-cash $8.5 billion deal
CRH, a building materials company based in Ireland, announced on Monday that it will acquire Arcosa of the United States in a cash-only deal worth $8.5 billion. This acquisition will strengthen CRH's position in North America. CRH has offered $150 per share, which is a premium of 10.4% over Arcosa’s previous closing price. In premarket trading, shares of the Dallas-based company rose by 7.5% to $146. Jim Mintern, CEO of CRH, said that the deal enables CRH to take advantage of rising demand in U.S. utility and energy infrastructure. Arcosa is a large manufacturer of energy transmission equipment in the U.S., with its Engineered Structures division. The deal for Arcosa is expected to be closed in the first quarter of 2027. This deal adds to the surge in dealmaking that has been taking place in the U.S. construction-products sector as firms look to scale and localized supply chain to reduce tariffs. Demand is boosted by new housing construction and repairs, and renovations. QXO has struck a $17billion deal with TopBuild, a building products distributor. Commercial Metals Company acquired concrete supplier Foley Products last year for $1.84billion. CRH has been a dealmaker for the last two years, spending $9.1 billion, mainly on smaller acquisitions. The largest deal in the company's history was a EUR6.5 billion ($7.44billion) purchase of cement assets from European rivals Holcim & Lafarge that they had to sell before their merger. This transaction transformed?the Dublin based company into a larger player. CRH stated that it 'expects run rate cost synergies to reach $175 million in year three, and the deal will be accretive for?earnings? within the first twelve months after completion. J.P. Morgan, Morgan Stanley and Evercore are acting as financial advisers for CRH. Goldman Sachs and Evercore are financial advisors for Arcosa. (Reporting from AnshumanTripathy in Bengaluru, and PadriacHalpin in Dublin. Editing by TasimZahid.)
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Gold retorts on encouraging US-Iran Peace Talks
Gold rebounded Monday, ending a three-session loss streak, supported by a fall in Brent crude oil on the back of positive progress in U.S. Iran talks. Investors were also on edge due to the Federal Reserve’s hawkish position. After falling to its lowest levels since June 11, spot gold rose 1.2% by 1205 GMT. U.S. Gold Futures?for August Delivery fell by 0.4% to $4228.30. Ross Norman, an independent analyst, said that gold may benefit from hot money flowing out of oil and into gold. Press TV reported that progress had been made by a spokesperson for the Iranian Foreign Ministry, according to Iran's Press TV. Negotiations follow a memorandum last week extending a fragile "ceasefire" agreed in April by at least 60-days. Brent crude futures fell by nearly 2% on the news. The spike in oil prices due to the war has increased inflation fears and strengthened the case of higher interest rates which usually dent the appeal of gold. Norman said it is too early to predict a gold turnaround, especially with the Fed's hawkish outlook. Kevin Warsh, the U.S. Federal Reserve chair, struck a firm note on inflation last weekend. He offered little clarity as to what conditions could delay an increase in interest rates. His remarks confirmed market expectations of a rate increase 'in the near-term. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders now see an 89% probability of a rate hike in December. This is down from 61% prior to the Fed meeting. Morgan Stanley stated in a Friday note that "we retain an upside bias but $5,200 per ounce for the'second half of 2026 looks more dependent on ETF buying. There is also evidence to suggest that lower oil prices are feeding into the rate outlook." The British pound also remained firm after Prime Minister Keir starmer announced his resignation. Silver spot rose by 2.5%, to $66.51/ounce. Platinum gained 1.5%, to $1689.02; and palladium increased 0.9%, to $1269.08. Reporting by Sumit and Ashitha in Bengaluru, Editing by Sharon Singleton & David Goodton
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Metal prices boosted by hope for US-Iran agreement
Prices of industrial metals rose on Monday due to optimism that the initial U.S. - Iran talks may pave a way for a peace deal. Benchmark copper on the London Metal Exchange traded 1.2% higher, at $13,760 per metric ton. The price of copper, which investors use as a measure of economic health, has increased by more than 15 percent since March 23. Mediators said that U.S. officials and Iranian officials had made "encouraging" progress in agreeing on a 60-day timeline to end the war. Toutefois, tensions?persisted?over Lebanon and the Strait of Hormuz?after Tehran once again closed the waterway?and?U.S. Donald Trump has threatened new attacks. Tom Price, Panmure Liberum analyst, said: "The market desperately wants to believe that the U.S. - Iran?war has ended and is busy trying to price this in... but it's the truth that this ceasefire doesn't?look robust." "We have definitely entered a period?where the markets are trying to revert to pre-war conditions. Investors are once again looking to the themes of pre-war copper." The copper prices have been driven up in recent years by the forecasts for strong growth of demand from data centres required for AI, grid investments and electric vehicles. Aluminium prices are expected to be further pressured by the Middle East's 9% global smelting capability. Aluminum prices have fallen 10% since early June, when fears of Middle East supply and global shortages peaked. The LME cash contract premium over the 3-month forwards is decreasing, which shows that concerns are easing about the?aluminium supply. After?peaking at 19-year highs over $104 per ton on 1 June,?it's now around $10 per ton. Reduced oil prices will reduce the production costs of aluminium and zinc. Both are energy-intensive metals. This, say traders, will weaken the price support, turning it into a negative factor. Aluminium rose 0.2% at $3,405 per ton. Zinc gained 1.5%, while lead firmed up 0.1%, reaching $1,956. Tin climbed 3.3%, to $55,050, and nickel rose by 1.2%, to $17.775.
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Oil prices fall as Iran peace talks advance
After mediators announced that 'progress' had been made in U.S. - Iran?peace?talks, they helped calm fears of the fragile process to end?the?war? slipping. The pound and UK bond prices rose as Prime Minister Keir starmer announced his resignation. This paved the way for Britain to elect its seventh leader in ten years. Iran's war talks were overshadowed earlier by Tehran's announcement that it had closed the Strait of Hormuz again, which prompted U.S. president Donald Trump to issue a new threat. Qatari and Pakistani officials said that progress had been made in a roadmap for a final deal to be reached within 60 days. JD Vance of the United States Vice President confirmed this, saying that Tehran has agreed to allow inspections. Brent crude futures lost their early gains and fell 1.8% to $79.07 per barrel, a far cry from the peak in May of $126.41. The S&P500 futures in the U.S. have pared their early losses and are now trading 0.1% lower. Susannah Streeter is the chief investment strategist for Wealth Club. She said that there appeared to be progress in the Iran talks towards a "lasting settlement". Oil prices had also dropped. "It is clear that there is still a?long?way to?go, and more obstacles could emerge before a?long-term?deal is signed." The apparent progress of the peace talks has boosted Asian stocks overnight. Japan's Nikkei gained 1.6% while South Korea's hot market rose 0.7% after a surge of more than 11% on demand for semiconductors stocks last week. UK OUTLOOK STARMER RESIGNATION CLOUDS The pound recovered from earlier losses and traded flat at $1.324, while gilts increased on Monday, after Starmer announced that he was resigning. This had been widely reported over the weekend. Andy Burnham, the former Manchester mayor, is expected to be Starmer's successor. However investors believe that the key question on nervous UK bond markets will be who will become finance minister. Nick Rees of Monex Europe, the head of macro-research, said that a new leader would not change fundamentally the fiscal crisis they were going to inherit. The euro fell 0.15%, to $1.146 after reaching a three-month high on Friday at $1.1418. Treasuries remain under pressure after a hawkish shift by the Federal Reserve in last week's meeting, which led to markets pricing in a 75% probability of a rate increase as early as September. Futures suggest that the Fed will tighten by 38 basis points before year's end, and yields on 2-year bonds have risen as much as 4 basis point to their highest level since early 2025. Fabio Bassi is the head of JPMorgan's cross-asset strategy. He said: "Our baseline calls for patience, and a first increase in inflation during the second half 2027. (We) believe that the margin of error and tolerance for further inflation are limited. There is a genuine risk of an earlier?hike." The Fed's hawkish view helped push the dollar 0.3% higher to 161.71yen. Only the threat of Japanese interference prevented the currency from reaching its 40-year high 161.96 in 2024. (Reporting from Sydney by Wayne Cole and Harry Robertson; editing by Kate Mayberry Aidan Lewis, and Susan Fenton).
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JODI data show that Saudi Arabia's crude exports in April fell to the lowest level ever recorded.
According to data released by the Joint Organizations Data Initiative (JODI), Crude Oil exports from Saudi Arabia fell for the second consecutive month in April to a new record low. The Iran War?disrupted?shipments?from the Gulf Region. Exports dropped to 3.990 million barrels a day from 4.974 in March. JODI data on Saudi Arabian crude oil exports, and production, dates back to 2002. In April, crude oil production in the country was at its lowest ever level, 6.316 million barrels per day, down from 6.967 in March. Riyadh, along with other members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries(OPEC), provides monthly export?figures to the JODI. The?JODI publishes these figures on its website. The latest news on the geopolitical scene is that the U.S. Mediators said that Iran and the United States made "encouraging" progress in the first round of negotiations aimed at reaching an agreement on a final settlement, despite tensions over Lebanon and Strait of Hormuz. The Iranian response to the U.S. and Israeli strikes which began late in February has damaged major energy facilities, and disrupted shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. This strait normally carries around 20% of all global oil and LNG?flows. The International Energy Agency estimates that the Middle East oil production was reduced by more than 14 million barrels per day (bpd) due to the conflict. The U.S. is now the largest oil exporter in the world, upending decades-old 'order' long dominated Saudi Arabia and Russia. This'shift' tightens the grip of U.S. firms on the energy markets, as the war reshapes the global energy trade. The JODI data revealed that Saudi Arabia's refinery crude output in April fell by 0.055 bpd to 2.211 bpd. In March, it was 2.266 bpd. Direct crude consumption increased by 210.000 bpd, to 540,000 bpd. Ashitha Shivaprasad, Bengaluru (Reporting and Editing by Jan Harvey).
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Russell: There is plenty of crude oil in Asia, but the refined fuels are scarce.
Asia's crude oil imports are expected to return to pre-Iran Conflict levels, but the flow of refined products is still constrained. Fuel prices reflect this supply stress. According to data compiled by Kpler, the world's largest energy consumer region is expected to import 22.18 millions barrels of crude per day in June. This represents an increase from 20.35million bpd imported in May. The arrivals in June are still below the 26.76m bpd average for the three months leading up to the United States' and Israel's attack on Iran, which took place on February 28. The figures are still well above the 8-year low of 18,77 million bpd that was recorded in April, when the Strait of Hormuz was effectively closed by Iran. In July, it's likely that the reopening the narrow waterway where up to 20% of crude oil and refined products were transported before the conflict will enable more oil to be shipped to Asia. Kpler has tracked only?5,76 million bpd in seaborne arrivals for June. This figure will likely be revised upwards before the end of the month as more cargoes arrive for assessment, but it confirms that China has dramatically reduced its crude imports due to the increased prices caused by Iran's war. China's seaborne exports fell to their lowest level since February 2018, with Kpler data indicating arrivals of 6.78 million bpd. This is down from an average 11.37 million in the three-month period before the Iran War. It appears that while crude imports in Asia ex China are on the rise, it is more difficult to return flows of refined products to their pre-war level. Asia's refiners will export 9.20 million bpd (light and middle distillates) in June. This is up from 6.99 million bpd, in May, and 6.28 million in April. Although this might seem like a good recovery, the figure for June is still 13% lower than the 10,56 million bpd that was shipped in the three-month period before the beginning of the conflict (February 28). In many Asian countries the refinery inventories are also down, so that there is a tight market for fuels like diesel and gasoline. FUEL PRICE PREMIUM Prices in the region have fallen from their record highs during the conflict but remain elevated relative to crude oil prices. Brent crude futures, the global benchmark, ended on June 19 at $80.57 per barrel. This is an increase of 11.2% over the close of February 27. It's also a drop of 36.3% compared to April 30's war high of $126.41. Jet fuel was the refined product that suffered the most from the conflict, as it has the smallest buffer of stock and degrades more quickly than other fuels. Singapore jet fuel On June 19, the price of a barrel was $112.49, which is still 20.4% higher than the $93.45 it was the day before war began. Last week, gasoil, which is the main component of diesel, was priced at $111.61 per barrel. This represents a 22.1% increase from the $91.42 price on February 27. Meanwhile, gasoline The closing price of the war ended at $103.56, an increase of 30.6% over its previous close, which was $79.30. As refiners in Asia begin to receive more crude oil, they are likely to start increasing processing rates and increase the supply of refined product. The margins of refineries remain high due to the "premium" of fuels compared to crude. A typical Singapore refinery enjoys a profit of $11.51 per barrel, which is 34% higher than the $8.59 average for the last year. The speed at which refined fuels are able to return to their pre-war levels will depend on the ability of the United States to keep its ceasefire agreement with Iran and the flow of crude through the Strait of Hormuz. In the medium term, it is more important to track vessel movements through the Strait of Gibraltar than to listen to social media bluster from the various parties involved in the conflict. You like this column? Check out Open Interest, your new essential source of global financial commentary. ROI provides data-driven, thought-provoking analysis on everything from soybeans to swap rates. The markets are changing faster than ever. ROI can help you keep up. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, X. These are the views of the columnist, an author for.
Snapshot-Indian stocks, rupees, swaps, and call at close
STOCKS: The benchmark BSE Senex added 0.38% to 77 094.07, while the broader NSE Index rose 0.37%?to?24,102.90. Reliance Industries led this rise,?following?its annual meeting, and a rebound of IT stocks. Meanwhile, improved sentiments from Middle East Peace Talks and lower oil prices helped to support broader risk appetite.
RUPEE:
The Indian rupee fell 0.38% against the?U.S. The dollar dropped to 94.6775 on Monday and ended a six-day run of gains.
GOVERNMENT BONDS
The benchmark 10-year bonds were quoted at 100.6475 Rupees with the yield remaining largely unchanged at 6.8473%. Traders were cautious due to the lingering U.S. Iran truce risk and tight liquidity in the banking system.
INDEX SWAPS OVERNIGHT:
The swap rate for the five-year index was also down more than four basis points at 6.3025%.
CALL MONEY
India's overnight TREPS and call money rates were both at 5.50%. (Reporting from Nishit Navin, Bengaluru. Editing by Joyjeet Das.
(source: Reuters)