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Argentina develops case for exporting natgas to Brazil through Bolivia

Energy companies from Argentina and Brazil have actually begun talks on reversing the southerly flow of a Bolivian natural gas pipeline network that connects the 3 countries as a regional gas deficit might require Brazil to pay up for alternative supplies of the fuel.

An initial proposition on the pipeline shift has failed to gain traction with Bolivia, according to executives and sources, leaving Brazil increasingly exposed to unpredictable costs of melted natural gas (LNG).

Brazil has made clear in recent months that gas from Argentina, which has the world's second biggest shale gas reserves, will be required to stabilize supplies. Exports from Bolivia, which when was a prominent manufacturer in the area, have decreased rapidly and may not be readily available after 2029, say professionals.

The fastest and least expensive alternative to attend to the regional shortage might be to export gas from Argentina's Vaca Muerta shale development by reversing a network of Bolivian pipelines that has brought gas south.

But Argentina's government under new President Javier Milei must first complete essential transportation jobs to bring its gas to the border with Bolivia and construct the business framework needed for negotiating tariffs, according to executives and experts associated with the talks.

Bolivia's federal government and state company YPFB in recent months rejected an initial proposition by Argentina and Brazil to pay a. tolling cost for the passage of Argentina's gas throughout its. area, three executives from the business involved stated.

The Andean nation has actually proposed that it import Argentine gas. and resell it to companies in Brazil, they included. That strategy was. rejected by the counterparties as it would lead to significantly. higher import costs for Brazil.

It's an industrial problem, stated Mauricio Tolmasquim, chief. energy shift officer at Brazil's state-controlled oil. business Petrobras, among the largest receivers of. Bolivia's gas.

We have to discover some common ground, he said last month on. the sidelines of the CERAWeek conference in Houston.

Argentina wishes to fix domestic transport traffic jams. this year to stabilize its gas circulation and start planning. exports. For its part, Bolivia should consent to work out terms to. offer gas passage.

If both happen, Argentine gas might begin streaming to Brazil. next year during the low-demand season in Argentina, said Alvaro. Rios, director of consultancy Gas Energy Latin America.

Bolivia's and Argentina's federal governments and YPFB did not. reply to ask for remark.

LNG costs hit a record high in 2022, stimulated by Moscow's. invasion of Ukraine, but have actually slumped to their most affordable level in. almost 3 years after weaker-than-expected need due to a. mild winter and high stockpiles in the U.S., Europe and Japan.

FILL THE LINE

Petrobras would choose to receive more gas to fill its. pipeline from Bolivia, which is currently running at about 60%. of capacity, Tolmasquim said.

If Bolivia can increase (supply) for Brazil, that would be. perfect due to the fact that then we can find another method to bring the gas. from Argentina, (such as) structure another pipeline to the south. of Brazil or we can turn to LNG, he included.

Nevertheless, the Andean country until in 2015 was not able to. fulfill volumes worked out with Brazil. Petrobras in December. consented to change its Bolivian gas contract to keep imports at up. to 20 million cubic meters daily. The offer likewise permitted. seasonal versatility and extended the timeframe to achieve the. overall materials, the business said.

Argentina, the 2nd largest receiver of Bolivian gas,. plans to cease imports in October if it finishes an expansion. of its own gas network to bring more gas from the Vaca Muerta. fields to its northern provinces, gas providers have said.

The country also is trying to advance two large LNG. jobs, one by Malaysia's Petronas and state-owned. business YPF, and another by oil and gas manufacturer. Tecpetrol.

The present traffic jam is at Argentina's pipelines. They. want to work out with Bolivia, however they should initially reverse. their own gaslines' flow and protected gas to the border. They also. need to work on tariffs and policies, said Rios.

Bolivia's supply to Argentina has decreased to as low as 2. million cubic meters each day (mcm/d), a portion of Argentina's. 130-mcm/d intake, said Ricardo Markous, CEO of Tecpetrol,. which produces gas in Argentina and Bolivia.

A gas export increase from Bolivia, whose production has. fallen about 45% in the last 8 years to some 34 mcm/d, is. unlikely in coming years, Rios said.

Bolivia by 2029 will no longer have gas to export because. domestic need will match production capability. The production. decline has been speeding up every year, he added.

Its decline is expected to increase the pressure for. alternative products, professionals and sources stated, specifically if. prices for LNG, which has been the alternative for Brazil and. Argentina over the last few years, climb again.

(source: Reuters)