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Oil prices ease slightly as stocks weather bond volatility
On Friday, global stocks posted their best weekly performance since early August as AI euphoria, and the prospect of a better Middle East energy supply won out over rising bond yields. Oil prices fell as traders considered the possibility of an agreement between the United States and Iran. Sources close to the talks said that negotiators were exploring a phased exit from the war, which would include reopening Strait of Hormuz. The bond market has been able to find some relief from the inflationary fears that were triggered by higher energy costs, thanks to a slight drop in oil prices. Jan von Gerich, Nordea's chief market strategist, said that markets tend to believe rumours about better news from the Middle East. "But there's no quick solution and the weekend is coming, so we might see some caution." Brent crude?remains above $100 per barrel, keeping yields on government bonds near recent highs. Japan's 10-year bonds yielded 3.115% - a level not seen since 1996. After last week's rate hike, inflation fears have boosted bets for multiple Federal Reserve?rate increases. The dollar is now on track to gain for a second consecutive week. The STOXX 600 index for Europe rose 0.6%. U.S. stocks futures were also higher, a good sign for Wall Street's opening later. MSCI's World Stock Index was slightly firmer than usual on Tuesday and is set to have its best performance in a week since the beginning of August. Xi Jinping, the Chinese president, is currently in Washington, D.C. for talks with Donald Trump. However, there have been few signs of progress on the thorny issue of AI, trade, Taiwan, or the Iran War. Under threat RISK ASSETS Investors are demanding ever higher returns on debt, especially long-dated bonds, due to inflation fears and fiscal pressures. Nigel Green of deVere Group Financial Advisors said, "The bond markets around the world are shrieking, and ignoring them could prove to be very costly." "Once the risk-free rate in the largest economy of the world is above 5%, then every asset must justify its value against this." "Equity, property, private debt, emerging market bonds -- nothing is immune." The benchmark 10-year Treasury rate was slightly higher today at around 5,17 percent, after a 20-basis point surge in two days to a new peak of about 5,22 percent. This was the largest two-day increase since April of last year, when Trump's Liberation Day Tariffs shocked markets. The 30-year US bond yields are at 5.47% after a 17-bps surge in the last two days. This is their highest level since 2004. Mortgage rates have risen to 7% due to an increase in US borrowing costs. The yields on euro zone bonds were lower than usual last Friday, but they are still poised to rise for the seventh consecutive week. Nordea's von Gerich said that the bond market has seen "violent moves" and these moves went further than economic conditions justified. He also noted that yields could continue to fall. Investors are preparing for more rate increases from major central banks. Five of the Group of 10 central banks that are most influential have increased rates this month. The rest have either warned of a rate hike or signaled a rise is on the way. Norway raised rates Thursday, and Sweden's Riksbank indicated that it would likely follow suit before the end of the year. The dollar is held steady by expectations of further Fed tightening. The dollar index, while a little lower on Friday was still set for a second consecutive week of gains. This week it has reached its highest level since late July. The dollar lost 0.4% to the yen, falling from a peak of three weeks. Japan's Finance minister Satsukikatayama reported that Trump expressed concern over yen strength during a meeting with Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi this week.
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WTO's dispute body accepts Russia's panel request regarding EU carbon border levies
The World Trade Organization’s dispute settlement body has agreed to Russia’s request on Friday for a panel to examine the European Union’s carbon border tax. The dispute over the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism began last year. Russia argued that the measure, which imposes carbon charges?on certain imported goods to match the costs of carbon faced by European producers, is discriminatory, and asked the WTO to decide whether it violates the international trade rules. The first request, made in July of this year, was not accepted. However, the second request received on Friday was. CBAM was designed to protect European industries from cheaper imports coming from countries that have weaker climate regulations. It has been criticized by trading partners such as?Brazil and South Africa, who claim that it penalizes developing economies. The EU offers allowances under its flagship policy to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, the Emissions Trading System. This is what Russia claims. The EU has expressed confidence that its measures are compatible and will take part in the proceedings.
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New Greenland agreement likely to see US troops stationed at a desolate Arctic outpost
A small Danish military detachment has quietly watched over a wind-swept 'gravel airstrip' in eastern Greenland for decades. Under a new US defense agreement signed this week, Mestersvig may soon be a major American military base in the Arctic. Mestersvig is 240 km (149 miles), or a distance of 149 miles, from the nearest settlement with a population of 330 people. It lies at the edge if a national park that is larger than Germany combined. The area is completely dark during the winter with temperatures around minus 10 degrees Celsius. It is the most remote, coldest, and extreme place you will ever find. "You have to go to Antarctica for similar conditions," Anders Ibsen said, a former Danish Sirius dog-sled patrol officer, an elite unit which uses?Mestersvig as a resupply. STRATEGIC CHOKEPOINT The GIUK gap is the ocean stretch between Greenland and Britain, known as the GIUK Gap. This is the distance that Russia's Northern Fleet has to cross in order to reach the 'Atlantic. Controlling this chokepoint for NATO is crucial to contain Russian naval power. Justus Hansen, a local member of parliament, welcomed the expansion. He said: "In East Greenland, it is really needed." Washington is allowed to set up a new base in southern Greenland at Mestersvig or Narsarsuaq under the agreement. This could be the first US military expansion in years on this vast semi-autonomous Arctic Island. The facility was constructed in the 1960s, and it includes barracks for 150 soldiers. The US has not made any public announcements about the plans for this base. A HISTORY WITHOUT INTEREST This stretch of coast on the Arctic island became the front line during World War II in a "weather war". Germany and the Allies raced to determine the weather conditions in Greenland, which would later affect the North Atlantic, and Europe. Germans built manned stations in this area, but Danish dog sleds found them and Allied forces removed them. A nearby EU-backed project is aiming to mine molybdenum, a metal critical for aerospace and defense. It's about 20 km (12 miles) from the site. Texas oil company wants to drill for oil in an untested basin south of Mestersvig this winter, but it does not have a permit. The previous owner ARCO spent heavily on seismic work but never drilled in the 1970s. Greenland Energy's CEO, Robert Price, said that any infrastructural improvement in Greenland is welcome. The 1.8 km (1.1 mile) airstrip, which is long enough to land military transport planes, can accumulate up to five meters of snow per year. Ibsen said that when it snows, "you're basically removing the snow 24/7" - a former dog sled officer who spent an entire year in Mestersvig. You have a lot to do even just to stay alive.
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Republicans in Iowa and Kansas feel vulnerable due to the rush of money and campaign stops
Midterm elections are just a little over a month off. Republican heavyweights like John McCain and Mitt Romney have been traveling across the country to campaign. Outside groups have also been investing money in races that would normally be the safest for the Republican Party, such as Farm Belt States like Iowa and Kansas. According to political scientists and campaign strategists, the money and attention show just how vulnerable Republicans are, as high prices, particularly for gasoline and diesel have disappointed their 'usual supporters. Republican voters are increasingly dissatisfied with President Donald Trump's economic management. This is one of the reasons why his approval ratings have fallen to 32%, according to a September 21, /Ipsos survey, which was the lowest in his political career. The spending is a reflection of the competitiveness in these races, said Republican strategist Brad Dayspring from Purple Strategies Alexandria, Virginia. "Republicans fight for their political future, and they use every arrow to ensure their message gets through," said Republican strategist Brad Dayspring of Purple Strategies in Alexandria, Virginia. Vice President JDVance has recently been campaigning in Iowa for US Senate Candidate Ashley Hinson and earlier this year, Republican Representative Zach Nunn. Vance made a second stop in Kansas to rally support for Republican senator Roger "Doc Marshall". As the general election approaches, these two states as well as Nebraska where Republican Pete Ricketts faces off against independent Dan Osborn look to be competitive. Senator John Kennedy from Louisiana recently visited all three states to campaign on behalf of Republicans. Kennedy stated, "If you had told me six-months ago that I would be spending my time in these three states, I probably wouldn't have believed you." "Those should be fat guy layups." The Effects of FARM BELT FEELINGS According to a September 21 poll, Republicans disapproving of Trump's handling the cost of living now outnumber those in favor 51% to 44%. Diesel fuel prices have risen to a record-breaking $6.50 per gallon due to the war with Iran. Diesel fuel is used in vehicles such as pickup trucks and farm machinery, so the price increase is particularly severe in states where agriculture is dominant, like Iowa, Kansas, and Nebraska. Hinson, a Republican from?Iowa's western edge, is fighting a losing battle against Democrat Josh Turek. In a Marist poll conducted on September 22, Hinson was ranked behind Turek with 42% of respondents in favor of Hinson, compared to Turek’s 50%. Hinson, a member of the US House of Representatives who is still in office, voted against measures to limit Trump's authority for the continuation of the Iran war six times. Hinson changed her stance after Vance's visit on September 18, calling for an end to the war. Hinson didn't attend the rally that was headlined by Vance. He called her "an amazing public servant" at the event and promised to get her re-elected even though "I knew she couldn't have been here today." Republican-aligned PACs have spent more than $30 million on the Turek campaign. More than $11.7 millions of that has come since Labor Day. According to federal election filings that exclude nonprofit groups who are not required by law to disclose their expenditures, Democrats have spent $24.3 to support Turek. KANSAS LOOKS COMPETITIVE Vance made his trip to Kansas at the same time that Marshall, an obstetrician and former politician who was elected for?2020, was facing reports claiming he had sued over 700 patients due to unpaid medical debts. Marshall's spokesperson responded to the New York Times reporting by saying that he "treated patients regardless of their ability to pay". A recent?polling by Emerson College/Nexstar media placed Adam Hamilton, the church pastor who is Marshall's Democratic opponent, within the margins of error. Hamilton was backed by 45% of respondents, while the Republican senator received 43%. Hamilton would be the first Democratic Senator elected from Kansas in 94 Years if he won. According to Federal Election Commission figures, outside Democratic groups began targeting the race towards the end of August. They have spent about $2.3million, showing that they believe Hamilton has the potential to unseat Marshall. Republican-leaning organizations have invested about $1.6million in the race but only $27,500 after Labor Day. Vance's visits are used to encourage loyal voters to vote in midterm elections. The outcome of these elections depends on the turnout of the party's most ardent supporters. These visits can have a negative impact, according to?Alexandra Middlewood of Wichita State University, professor of Political Science. She said Kansas is home to a large number of independent voters who are less likely than others to be influenced by big-name endorsements. Visits like Vance's in an era when Republicans and Trump have become increasingly unpopular could further exacerbate negative feelings. Ron Bonjean, partner at the bipartisan public relations firm Rokk Solutions said about Vance's Iowa visit: "If they are going to a Republican stronghold so late in a campaign it shows that there is a desire to shore up their support to make sure there aren't any problems on election night."
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Costco's sales surpass estimates, as gas discounts and bulk purchases attract inflation-weary consumers
Costco Wholesale surpassed quarterly sales estimates on Thursday. Inflationary pressures pushed consumers to discount gas stations, and warehouse demand increased. According to LSEG, the warehouse retailer beat analysts' expectations of $6.53 per share by reporting adjusted earnings of $6.60 in the fourth quarter. The quarterly revenue rose by about 11% from a year ago to $95.72 Billion, exceeding Wall Street's estimates of $94.86 Billion. Total same-store revenue excluding 'gas and foreign exchange effect' rose 6.7%. This was higher than analysts' expectations. Costco's low-priced bulk model, along with its discounted fuel offer, has helped to attract shoppers amid the persistent cost pressures. Arun Sundaram, CFRA analyst, said that Costco had another well-rounded third, with its comparable sales growth leading all other big-box retailers, thanks to balanced traffic and an increase in average ticket. The CEO of the company, Ron Vachris, said that gasoline was a major sales driver. Oliver Chen, TD Cowen's analyst, says that Costco gas stations are attracting customers who are price sensitive as fuel prices rise due to the Iran War. Costco CFO Gary Millerchip revealed in a call following the earnings that the company had received 'tariff refunds' of $184m during the third quarter, under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. Ron Vachris, CEO of Ron Vachris, said that the refunds were reinvested in price reductions for some products, such as essentials, meats, beverages and non-food items. As shoppers consolidate trips, they are buying more groceries and other essentials on a single trip rather than making multiple trips. In extended trading, the company's shares were unchanged. The stock had risen by nearly 4% this year as of Thursday's closing.
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Beyond the high-profile conflicts, there is a global battle for resources
Pakistani media reported that the militants who attacked a lithium mine in Balochistan, Pakistan, last month, had a clear message. They destroyed equipment and briefly held employees, indicating they would no longer tolerate mining in the area. Foreign and local mining companies should also stay away. While the Middle East wars and Ukraine conflict dominated headlines, and as the United States and China negotiated their still largely non-violent face-off culminating with the meeting between President Donald Trump and Xi Jinping last week, a number of other overlapping conflicts over resources have raged throughout the 'world in 2026. The US, European Union, and Pacific governments are locked behind the scenes in a high-stakes race that is still escalating to separate themselves from China when it comes to the resources that drive modern technology. The conflict in Central Africa is fueled by rare earths, minerals and gold. In Sudan, the civil war continues to be fuelled largely by smuggling of gold that goes into the pockets of groups devoted to ethnic violence. This week, world leaders will gather in New York for the annual United Nations General Assembly. But much of the global conflict is now taking place behind closed doors with dramatically rising stakes. The US-Iran conflict in the Gulf, sparked by US-Israeli Operation Epic Fury - has now been widened and includes a worsening confrontation between Saudi Arabia and Iran backed Houthi rebels. This could cause a shock to the energy supply that would significantly derail the global economy. OpenAI Chief Executive Sam Altman, among others, briefed the Security Council on the issue of artificial intelligence, which is rapidly evolving. Both sides have discussed a possible suspension of attacks against energy infrastructure as part of the discussions over Ukraine. The raw materials needed for the ongoing technological revolution and computing are at stake. This includes copper, which is used in almost all forms of circuitry. It also includes lithium batteries, rare earths, and a variety of other minerals. In June, the European Commission joined the US State Department-coordinated "Pax Silica", a Washington-led collective of more than two dozen nations that commenced with an agreement between the US and Japan in September and has expanded since to include much of Europe, as ?well as key Pacific allies. According to AlixPartners consultancy, Beijing is still responsible for 70% of rare-earth mining, 85% refining capacity, and 90% of rare-earth metal alloys and magnets. Industry experts say that the latter is a major problem for aerospace manufacturers and chip makers. Foreign diplomats have said the US has struggled to regain the initiative. The battle for resources is therefore of particular importance, even though it can be difficult to monitor due to the limitations in reporting and established facts. It is evident, however, that they have already become a part of this wider conflict. BALOCHISTAN MINERAL MINING IS TARGETED ACLED, a global monitoring NGO that stands for Armed Conflict Location & Event Data, has reported at least 40 different incidents of mining interests being targeted in Balochistan in 2026. Local media are now reporting a wider variety of incidents that occur almost daily, including an ambush of nearly three dozen mining vehicles and ensuing firefight at the end August which left at least thirteen militants dead. Some stories describe suspected militants who were detained, then discovered dead. Others tell of victims of extrajudicial killings suspected to have been committed by private security or government personnel. The question of who is behind the various overlapping Baloch militant groups remains a hotly debated issue. India has denied the allegations. Pakistan accuses India's Research and Analysis Wing (RAW) intelligence agency of coordinating and arming these attacks. This is the poorest region in Pakistan. According to reports, guerrillas are crossing the border into Pakistan from Iran and Afghanistan. It is clear that their opposition to Chinese mining has risen dramatically in recent years. The US condemned the attacks, but did not comment in detail. However, the government of Islamabad had increasingly offered itself as a partner to the Trump administration, as well as a resource. Asim Munir, Pakistan's de facto leader and military chief, visited Trump in the Oval Office on October 20, 2025. He brought a wooden display of minerals with him before signing a memorandum committing $500 million. Mining currently accounts for less than 1% in Pakistan's GDP. However, the government says that it has up to $6 trillion worth of undeveloped reserves. The Reko Dik copper and gold mine is one of the largest projects in Pakistan. It's unusually owned by a Canadian company Barrick, not a Chinese conglomerate. The convoy of vehicles ambushed was returning from a mine that is due to start production in 2029. Other Resource Flashpoints Central Asia is also increasingly in the crosshairs for global resource competition. Kazakhstan was the first country in the region to join the US-run Pax Silica, but joined the China-run World Artificial Intelligence Cooperation Organisation just three weeks later. The US State Department immediately warned that joining the Pax 'Silica' collective would be incompatible with joining Chinese rival entities. Washington will continue to seek new deals for resources with the Kazakhstani government. The Kazakhstani government has some of the largest uranium stockpiles in the world, as well as copper, beryllium tantalum lead and zinc. Last November, the US hosted five of the major Central Asian countries at a crucial mineral summit. They also struck deals with Uzbekistan et Tajikistan. South Korea held its own mineral summit with Central Asian governments this month. Japanese media reported last week that Tokyo will launch its own strategy with a similar goal next year. Japan has also been at the forefront in what is now "often" described as "urban mine mining". Four Japanese companies announced in April that they will use robots to recover the neodymium magnetic materials critical for computer hard drives. Some firms are pursuing remote undersea mining projects in order to access resources that were previously out of reach. Trump's administration is also pursuing a variety of commercial and diplomatic initiatives in Latin America. They are keen to counter the dominance of Chinese firms in the so-called "Lithium Triangle", which includes Chile, Argentina, and Bolivia. However, Chinese trade in South America has continued to grow sharply this year. This week in the Oval Office, Trump and Xi may have tried to appear like two geopolitical giants dividing up the world. The reality is much messier and the race for resources is just getting started in the new industrial era.
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Oil price jumps send 30-year yields to a two-decade high
The bond markets were under pressure again on Thursday, with US 30-year bonds yields reaching a record high. Rising oil prices sparked concerns over higher inflation and more Federal Reserve rate hikes. After a Houthi rocket attack on Saudi Arabia, oil prices rose about 3%. However, trade was volatile. Prices fell after reports that the US and Iran had discussed reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The interest-rate-sensitive US 2-year note rose 2.51 basis points to 4.92%. The yield on US benchmark 10-year notes has increased by 8.17 basis points, to 5.196%. This is the highest level since 2007. The 30-year bond rate increased by 7.96 basis points, to 5.4816%. This is the highest level since 2004. Gennadiy goldberg, head US rates strategy at TD Securities, said that the move up in Treasury yields was likely driven by a mix of factors, including rising expectations for Fed hikes, increased growth expectations, high oil prices, fiscal concerns and hyperscaler issuance. Investor positioning in the face of a rapid rise in oil prices is likely to have exacerbated this sharp increase. The yield gap between French 10-year bonds and German 10-year bonds has reached its highest level since Mario Draghi’s "Whatever It Takes" speech in 2012. The move on Thursday follows a sharp drop in yields for benchmark 10-year notes that took place Wednesday, when they posted their biggest daily gain since the tariff crisis of April 2025. That was driven in part by stronger-than-expected US business activity data, which showed prices paid surged to a nearly four-year high this month. Two Fed policymakers stated on Thursday that the US central bank would likely need to increase interest rates once again in order to reduce unacceptably high levels of inflation. Fed funds futures traders now price in 71% odds that the Fed will?hike rates next month. This is up from 53% just before Wednesday's data. Treasury Department auctioned off 7-year Treasury Notes worth $44 billion on Thursday. This follows a weak demand at the $70 billion 5-year sale held Wednesday. Treasury also announced that it had bought back $4.078 Billion in bonds with a maturity of 20 to 30 years as part its ongoing buybacks for market liquidity. During the operation, bonds worth $10.46 billion were sold. The company had previously said that it would purchase up to $6 billion of debt. YIELDS STOCKS PRESSURE The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 0.31%, while the S&P500 and Nasdaq Composite remained roughly flat for the day. Tuesday, the Nasdaq reached a new record high. The MSCI World Index fell by 0.29%, while the pan-European STOXX 600 Index was down by 0.55%. Traders worry that higher bond rates could derail the equity rally, making borrowing costs more expensive and causing investors to move from stocks into bonds. Some analysts claim that despite Thursday's weak performance, financial conditions are still supportive of an economy and stock market with a strong foundation. Antonio Del Favero is the head of US rates at Macro Hive. He said that financial conditions will likely remain loose if the S&P500 does not drop by 20% or more, nor do the Nasdaq Composite prices fall even further. When the yield on 10-year Treasury bonds broke above 5%, the MSCI World Index lost half its value. This was shortly before the global financial crises. A similar decline occurred less than 10 years ago, when an increase of nearly 6.8% helped burst 'dotcom bubble. TRADE TENSIONS US President Donald Trump hosted Chinese President Xi Jinping at the White House for a lavish summit on Thursday. Both leaders were keen to show stable ties despite a number of thorny topics such as?AI and trade, Taiwan, and the war against Iran. Analysts expect few if any major developments, but Washington and Beijing could extend their 11-month 'trade truce. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced that the two sides reached an agreement on a two-month initial extension. Trump met Xi personally at Joint Base Andrews, Maryland. The euro dropped 0.04% to $1.1376 on the currency markets, after hitting a 2-month low. The dollar gained 0.38% against the Japanese yen to 158.88. Spot gold dropped 0.3% to $4.274.14 per ounce.
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Hurricane Polo is expected to land on Sunday night and bring heavy rains to Mexico.
The US National Hurricane Center said that on Thursday, Hurricane Polo was crawling northwest off the mainland as it is "extremely strong". Polo, with maximum sustained winds of 155 miles an hour (250 km/h), has been classified as the last Category 4 storm. This is a step down from the previous highest level, Saffir-Simpson, that it previously achieved. The NHC is constantly adjusting the storm's strength and said that it may see some near-term improvement. It also expects the storm to remain as a major hurricane over the next few days. AccuWeather is a private forecaster that predicted Polo would make landfall on the Baja California Peninsula north of Cabo San Lucas, and then lose steam, reaching a Category 2 hurricane. Local authorities had already started to restrict beach access and close the local port. NHC stated that Polo's outer bands of rain are spreading onto the shore and causing heavy rains. It said that tropical-storm-force wind is likely to be blowing along the coast of southwest Mexico. Polo's winds can reach up to 65 km (40 miles) away from its center, and can extend up to 125 km (205 miles). The Mexican states of Michoacan and Colima are expecting additional rainfall of up to 4 inches (or 50.8 mm) with some isolated totals as high as 6 inches. The?NHC warned that "these swells will likely cause dangerous surf, rip-currents, and coastal flooding." AccuWeather Hurricane Expert Nicholas Arman stated that some rain and moisture could be pulled into Texas if the storm stays on its expected path. He said: "This is textbook El Nino impact where the strong tropical development of the Pacific?ultimately pushes moist into the southwest US." The amount of rain and moisture that reaches Texas is dependent on how well the storm can cross the Sierra Madre Mountains, a large mountain range system which runs from northwest to southeast through western and northwestern Mexico, as well as along the Gulf of California. Arman said that the Sierra Madre acts like a "cheese grater" to any system organized in tropical areas, shredding them apart and making it impossible for anything organized to stay together.
Some BP investors plan to vote against the chair's reelection
Two BP shareholders have said that they plan to vote against Helge Lind's reelection to the board of directors, following the shift from renewables to fossil fuels.
Legal and General, BP's seventh largest shareholder, expressed its "deep concern" over the decision made by BP in February to shift away from renewable energy and towards oil and gas.
According to LSEG, L&G is Britain's largest asset manager. It owns a 1.05% share in the company.
Dutch asset manager Robeco said that it also plans to vote against BP’s chairman and chair of the Safety and Sustainability Committee, citing a reason similar to L&G.
Last week, the oil major said Lund intended to step down "likely in 2026". This was after a campaign led by activist hedge funds Elliott and other investors for greater change within the company following its announcement of a strategic shift.
In an email, BP said that its reset strategy was widely supported and the changes made were well received.
"The message that was consistently received is to focus on delivering - executing our strategy and achieving the goals we have set. BP stated that this was their priority.
(source: Reuters)