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El Niño presses genuine US gas prices to multi-decade low: Kemp

Inflationadjusted U.S. gas prices have fallen to the lowest level for over thirty years as a. moderate winter and continued production growth leave the marketplace. bring a growing surplus of stocks.

Front-month futures for gas provided at Henry Hub in. Louisiana dropped to $1.58 per million British thermal units on. Feb. 15, the most affordable in real terms because the futures contract was. introduced in 1990.

Working gas stocks stood at 2,535 billion cubic feet (bcf). on Feb. 9, the highest for the time of year because 2016 and. before that 2012, according to data from the U.S. Energy. Info Administration (EIA).

Stocks were 346 bcf (+16% or +1.04 standard variances). above the prior ten-year average, swelling from 64 bcf (+2% or. +0.24 standard variances) above at the start of the heating. season on Oct. 1.

Chartbook: U.S. gas stocks and costs

Apart from a short period of extreme cold in the middle of. January, the winter of 2023/24 has actually mainly been warmer than. average, dismal direct gas usage in addition to gas-fired. power generation.

The Lower 48 states experienced an overall of 2,603. population-weighted heating degree days between July 1, 2023,. and Feb. 14, 2024, which was 11% below the long-term seasonal. average of 2,935.

Lower 48 population-weighted heating degree days were below. the long-term average on 98 of 137 days in between Oct. 1 and Feb. 14.

December was especially moderate, causing stocks to deplete. by only 300 bcf, the tiniest seasonal draw since December 2015,. and compared with a ten-year typical draw of 478 bcf.

EL NINO IMPACT

Strong El Niño conditions in the central-eastern Pacific. this winter directed warmer air into the northern United States. and ensured temperatures have actually been much milder than normal.

Sea surface area temperatures in the central-eastern Pacific were. nearly 2 degrees Celsius warmer than average in December, the. warmest because 2015 and before that 1997, both remarkably. strong El Niño episodes.

A strong El Niño is usually associated with. warmer-than-average winter temperature levels throughout the United. States, especially in the northern tier of states extending. from Washington through Illinois to Maine.

Considering that 1950, there have actually been six strong El Niño episodes. during the northern hemisphere winter (1957/58, 1965/66,. 1982/83, 1991/92, 1997/98 and 2015/16) and one borderline case. ( 2009/10).

Given that 1973, during winter seasons with a strong episode, the number. of U.S. heating degree days was 7% lower on average compared. If the borderline case is, with years without (or 10% lower. omitted).

The decrease in heating demand of 11% up until now during winter. 2023/24 is therefore consistent with previous strong El Niño. episodes.

EXCESSIVE GAS

Ultra-low futures costs are sending out the greatest possible. signal about the requirement for a downturn in drilling and production. to assist rebalance the market.

The number of rigs drilling for gas averaged just 119 in. January 2024, down from 162 in September 2022 - a postponed. reaction to the fall in rates after they increased following. Russia's intrusion of Ukraine in February 2022.

The rig count has been broadly consistent for the last. 5 months and well efficiency has actually continued to increase as. companies concentrate on the most prospective places and drill. longer horizontal well sections.

In addition, more gas is being produced and caught from. wells drilled primarily to extract oil, contributing to production. development.

Dry gas production totaled up to 3,178 bcf in November 2023. ( the most recent month for which information is available) which was 111 bcf. ( +4%) higher than in the exact same month a year earlier.

Production in the first eleven months of 2023 was up by. 1,339 bcf (+4%) compared with the exact same period in 2022.

Overall exports of pipeline and liquefied gas likewise increased. Only by 594 bcf, according to information compiled by the EIA.

The downturn in real prices to multi-decade lows is signalling. the urgent requirement for an additional slowdown in well drilling and. conclusions.

In recent days, a number of gas manufacturers have actually announced strategies. to cut capital investment and lower the variety of active rigs. and conclusion teams.

In the months ahead, extremely inexpensive gas ought to likewise. maximise more gas-fired generation at the expense of coal,. eroding some more of the excess stocks.

PURGING STOCKS

Prices for gas provided in March (the last winter season). Have currently slipped 7 cents below April (the. spring-summer month) having actually begun the winter at a premium of 21. cents.

Costs will have to fall low enough for enough time to purge. excess stock inherited from winter season 2023/24 from storage and. make room for more to be added this summer season ahead of winter season. 2024/25.

Rates have fallen so low and sentiment is so bearish that. from a purely placing point of view the balance of risks must. be to the upside.

But portfolio financiers have tried (and failed) 3 times. already in the last twelve months to determine the turning point,. causing a temporarily rise then retreat in rates.

Hedge funds and other supervisors acquired alternatives and futures. in between February and July 2023 (+1,943 bcf), however in. September-October 2023 (+1,216 bcf) and between December 2023. and January 2024 (+1,409 bcf).

Each time they have been repelled by the continued increase. in stocks and an additional slide in rates.

Related columns:

- Record warmth leaves world with excessive gas (December 15,. 2023)

- Possibility of strong El Niño weighs on U.S. gas rates. ( August 30, 2023)

John Kemp is a market expert. The views revealed. are his own. Follow his commentary on X https://twitter.com/JKempEnergy.

(source: Reuters)