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El Niño pushes genuine US gas prices to multi-decade low: Kemp

Inflationadjusted U.S. gas rates have actually fallen to the lowest level for over 30 years as a. mild winter and continued production development leave the marketplace. carrying a growing surplus of stocks.

Front-month futures for gas delivered at Henry Center in. Louisiana plunged to $1.58 per million British thermal systems on. Feb. 15, the lowest in genuine terms because the futures agreement was. released in 1990.

Working gas stocks stood at 2,535 billion cubic feet (bcf). on Feb. 9, the greatest for the time of year because 2016 and. before that 2012, according to data from the U.S. Energy. Info Administration (EIA).

Inventories were 346 bcf (+16% or +1.04 basic variances). above the prior ten-year average, swelling from 64 bcf (+2% or. +0.24 basic discrepancies) above at the start of the heating. season on Oct. 1.

Chartbook: U.S. gas stocks and rates

Apart from a brief period of extreme cold in the middle of. January, the winter of 2023/24 has primarily been warmer than. typical, dismaying direct gas consumption along with gas-fired. power generation.

The Lower 48 states experienced a total of 2,603. population-weighted heating degree days between July 1, 2023,. and Feb. 14, 2024, which was 11% below the long-lasting seasonal. average of 2,935.

Lower 48 population-weighted heating degree days were below. the long-term average on 98 of 137 days in between Oct. 1 and Feb. 14.

December was specifically mild, triggering inventories to diminish. by only 300 bcf, the tiniest seasonal draw given that December 2015,. and compared to a ten-year average draw of 478 bcf.

EL NINO IMPACT

Strong El Niño conditions in the central-eastern Pacific. this winter season directed warmer air into the northern United States. and ensured temperatures have actually been much milder than usual.

Sea surface area temperature levels in the central-eastern Pacific were. practically 2 degrees Celsius warmer than average in December, the. hottest since 2015 and before that 1997, both extremely. strong El Niño episodes.

A strong El Niño is generally connected with. warmer-than-average winter temperatures throughout the United. States, particularly in the northern tier of states extending. from Washington through Illinois to Maine.

Considering that 1950, there have actually been 6 strong El Niño episodes. throughout the northern hemisphere winter (1957/58, 1965/66,. 1982/83, 1991/92, 1997/98 and 2015/16) and one borderline case. ( 2009/10).

Since 1973, throughout winter seasons with a strong episode, the number. of U.S. heating degree days was 7% lower typically compared. If the borderline case is, with years without (or 10% lower. left out).

The decrease in heating demand of 11% so far throughout winter season. 2023/24 is therefore constant with previous strong El Niño. episodes.

EXCESSIVE GAS

Ultra-low futures rates are sending out the strongest possible. signal about the need for a downturn in drilling and production. to help rebalance the market.

The number of rigs drilling for gas balanced simply 119 in. January 2024, below 162 in September 2022 - a postponed. reaction to the fall in rates after they surged following. Russia's intrusion of Ukraine in February 2022.

However the rig count has actually been broadly continuous for the last. 5 months and well efficiency has continued to increase as. business focus on the most potential locations and drill. longer horizontal well areas.

In addition, more gas is being produced and captured from. wells drilled primarily to extract oil, contributing to production. development.

Dry gas production totaled up to 3,178 bcf in November 2023. ( the most recent month for which information is available) which was 111 bcf. ( +4%) higher than in the very same month a year earlier.

Production in the very first eleven months of 2023 was up by. 1,339 bcf (+4%) compared with the same duration in 2022.

Overall exports of pipeline and melted gas also increased. but just by 594 bcf, according to data put together by the EIA.

The downturn in genuine prices to multi-decade lows is signalling. the urgent need for an additional downturn in well drilling and. completions.

In current days, several gas producers have actually revealed plans. to cut capital investment and lower the number of active rigs. and conclusion crews.

In the months ahead, incredibly inexpensive gas must. maximise more gas-fired generation at the expenditure of coal,. eroding some more of the excess stocks.

PURGING STOCKS

Costs for gas provided in March (the last winter season). Have currently slipped 7 cents listed below April (the. spring-summer month) having actually started the winter at a premium of 21. cents.

Costs will need to fall low enough for enough time to purge. excess inventory acquired from winter season 2023/24 from storage and. make room for more to be added this summer season ahead of winter. 2024/25.

Rates have fallen so low and belief is so bearish that. from a purely placing perspective the balance of risks must. be to the upside.

Portfolio investors have tried (and stopped working) 3 times. already in the last twelve months to identify the turning point,. causing a temporarily increase then pull away in prices.

Hedge funds and other supervisors acquired alternatives and futures. between February and July 2023 (+1,943 bcf), however in. September-October 2023 (+1,216 bcf) and between December 2023. and January 2024 (+1,409 bcf).

Each time they have been repelled by the continued rise. in stocks and a more slide in prices.

Related columns:

- Record warmth leaves world with excessive gas (December 15,. 2023)

- Prospect of strong El Niño weighs on U.S. gas costs. ( August 30, 2023)

John Kemp is a market analyst. The views revealed. are his own. Follow his commentary on X https://twitter.com/JKempEnergy.

(source: Reuters)