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China's iron ore imports are expected to increase this year, as steelmakers compensate for declining grades

China's iron ore imports are expected to increase this year, as steelmakers compensate for declining grades
China's iron ore imports are expected to increase this year, as steelmakers compensate for declining grades

Analysts said that China's imports of iron ore are expected to increase for the third year in a row in 2026 as steelmakers purchase more to compensate for a 'declining' iron content, and Guinea's Simandou Project boosts supply.

Analysts said that the top iron ore consumers imports will likely rise by as much as 4 percent to a new record just above 1.3 million metric tons. This is expected to help prevent a price decline due to oversupply.

The second largest economy in the world is expected to import more steelmaking ingredients, even though its crude steel production is set to fall for a third consecutive year due to a prolonged property market slump.

Sushmita Vaszirani, Kpler's lead analyst, said that the import story is more driven by supply than demand. This is largely due to Simandou ramping up production and the weakening of domestic mining.

BHP's financial year that ended in June saw record production of iron ore, while Vale reported its highest second-quarter output of iron ore since 2018.

Macquarie analyst Florence Sun stated that the Simandou project, located in West Africa, is expected to add 18 million tonne of iron ore this year and 45 to 48 millions next year.

Iron ore imports from China increased 6.3% during the first half of this year, resulting in a rise in portside stock Steelhome's data showed that the amount of steel produced in July was 156.6 million tonnes, which is nearly 20% more than it was a year ago.

The increase in iron content is partly due to aging mines.

"Headline portside inventory can overstate the effective availability of iron units when viewed purely on a physical-ton basis rather than on a Fe-unit or value-in-use-adjusted basis," said research ?director David Cachot at consultancy Wood Mackenzie.

Yilin Wang told a recent conference that the average iron content in Chinese port stocks was 60.2% between January and March, compared to 60.6% in 2023.

Sun, a?Macquarie analyst, said: "The persistent decline of average?shipped-grade is the main driver of higher import tons despite weaker demand for iron units."

Wood Mackenzie predicts that China's crude output of steel will decline by 2.9% in this year, while Kpler expects a 3.6% drop.

Analysts said that iron ore prices will 'likely trend lower, but at a slower rate than the oversupply led many to believe.

Macquarie estimates that the benchmark price for 62% Fe will average $103 per metric ton in 2018 and $97 per metric ton next year. Steelhome data showed that prices averaged $104 during the first half 2026. .

(source: Reuters)