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As military buildups eclipse talks, the US and Iran are heading towards a conflict.
Officials on both sides, as well as diplomats in the Gulf and Europe, say that Iran and the United States have moved rapidly toward a military conflict. They are losing hope for a diplomatic resolution to the standoff they've had over Tehran’s nuclear program. Sources say that Iran's Gulf neighbours, including Israel, now see a conflict as more likely than a peaceful settlement. Washington is building one of the largest military deployments it has made in the region since the 2003 invasion of Iraq. Source familiar with the plans said that Israel believes Washington and Tehran are in a deadlock and has begun preparing for a possible joint military operation with the United States. However, no decision has yet been made on whether or not to conduct such an action. This would be the U.S.'s second attack on Iran in less than one year. The first was an airstrike by the U.S., Israel and other countries against Iranian military and nuclear installations last June. Officials in the region say that oil-producing Gulf nations are preparing themselves for a possible conflict, which they fear will spiral out of control and cause destabilisation of the Middle East. Two Israeli officials said they believed the gaps between Washington, D.C. and Tehran were unbridgeable. They also stated that there was a high likelihood of a military escalation in the near future. Regional officials claim that Tehran is making a grave mistake by refusing to make concessions. They also say that President Donald Trump is trapped by his military build-up and cannot reduce it without losing face. Alan Eyre is a former U.S. Diplomat and Iran Specialist. He said that "both sides are sticking with their guns" and that "nothing meaningful will emerge unless the U.S. "What Trump cannot do is assemble this much military and then return with a "so-so" deal and withdraw the military. He said: "I think he believes he will lose face." "If he attacks it will get ugly very quickly." TALKS HAVE STALLED Iran-U.S. talks stalled after two rounds on key issues from uranium to missiles and sanctions relief. Sources familiar with the talks say that when Omani mediators handed an envelope containing proposals from the U.S. on missiles, Iranian Foreign Ministry Abbas Araqchi did not even open it. He returned it. Araqchi, who spoke at the Geneva talks on Tuesday, said that the two sides had agreed upon "guiding principles" but the White House stated there was still distance. A U.S. official stated that Iran would submit a written proposal within the next few days. Araqchi, on Friday, said he expected a draft of a counterproposal to be ready in a matter of days. Trump, who sent aircraft carriers and warships to the Middle East on Thursday, warned Iran that it must reach a deal over its nuclear program, or else "really bad" things will happen. He seemed to have set a 10- to 15-day deadline, which prompted a response from Tehran that it would retaliate if the U.S. bases were attacked. Oil prices have increased due to the rising tensions. Officials in the United States say that Trump is still undecided about whether he will use military force, although he admitted on Friday that he might order a limited attack to try and force Iran to a deal. He told reporters, "I suppose I can say that I am considering it." It is not clear when an attack could occur. The U.S. secretary of state Marco Rubio will meet with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to discuss Iran on February 28, 2019. Senior U.S. officials said that it would take until mid-March for all U.S. troops to be in place. What's the endgame? European and regional officials are of the opinion that the size of the U.S. military deployment in the region will allow Washington to strike Iran while simultaneously defending its allies, Israel and military bases. The U.S. core demand is unchanged: No uranium enrichment in Iran. Iran says that it will not discuss ballistic missiles and insists on maintaining its nuclear capability. It denies that it is planning to build nuclear weapons. Defence analyst David Des Roches says that if talks fail, U.S. activities in the Gulf already signal how any strike would start: Blind Iran's Air Defence?and then attack the Revolutionary Guards Navy. This is the force behind decades of tanker attacks, and threats to shut down the Strait of Hormuz - the route used by a fifth of the world's oil. Some Arab and European officials say they don't know what Trump's ultimate goal is. And?European governments ask the U.S. for specifics on what it wants to achieve with its strikes - whether to reduce Iran's missile and nuclear capabilities, to prevent escalation, or to pursue a more ambitious goal such as "regime changes". Some European and regional officials are unsure whether military action will be able to change the course of Iran's ruling regime, which is led by Ayatollah Ayatollah Khamenei. The powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps protects the Supreme Leader. Some claim that because there is no apparent alternative political force in Iran, and the leadership's resilience is largely intact it would be dangerous to assume that strikes could lead to "regime changes". They say that military action is easier to start than control and harder to turn into a strategy. ARE CONCESSIONS LIKELY TO OCCUR? Few signs of compromise have been seen. Ali Larijani - a close advisor to Khamenei - told Al Jazeera TV Iran is willing to allow the International Atomic Energy Agency extensive monitoring to prove that it does not seek 'nuclear weapons. Tehran informed IAEA Chief Rafael Grossi about its decision. Sources familiar with the talks say that Iran's support for regional militias was not raised in formal talks. However, Tehran has no objections to U.S. concerns regarding proxies. Three regional officials reported that Iranian negotiators made it clear that Khamenei is the sovereign right to enrichment and missile production. David Makovsky, of The Washington Institute, said that each side is betting on the limits of the other. He said that Washington believed overwhelming force would force Tehran to yield. Tehran, on the other hand, believes Trump is not interested in a sustained campaign, and Israel, the gap between the two countries, was too large to close. This, he added, made confrontation inevitable. Steve Holland reported from Washington and Rami Ayyub in Jerusalem, Samia Nakhoul wrote the article, and Timothy Heritage edited it.
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LME updates on the warranty of Russian aluminum in EU warehouses
London Metal Exchange (LME), a London-based exchange, announced that it would'suspend the warranting of Russian aluminum?in European Union warehouses (EU) from February 25 unless metal holder or members provide attestation demonstrating compliance with EU sanction. The announcement is made in light of the end of a transition period of one year after sanctions were introduced in February 2025. During this time, no Russian-origin aluminum?was warranted at EU locations. Russia is one of the major producers of aluminum. LME stated that only metals tied to contracts signed before 25 February 2025 and within a 50,000 metric tonnes quota could be placed on a "warrant" with formal attestation. The sanctions that were in place between February 25, 2025, and February 26, 2020 did not apply to Russian aluminum if it was imported into the EU at a level of less than 275,000 metric tons. The exchange also added that, from December 31, 2026 onwards, Russian aluminum?canonly be warranted by importers if they can prove that?the?material?entered the EU prior to that date in compliance with sanctions. The LME said that if the metal had been imported before December 31, 2026, but was not warranted, the LME would assess each request for the warranting of the metal in EU LME listed warehouses starting December 31, 2026.
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Alberta to hold referendum on immigration control
Alberta will be holding a referendum in the fall to ask its residents if their government should limit "the number of" new international students and temporary foreign workers arriving in this oil-rich Canadian Province. Premier Danielle Smith announced the move in a television address on Thursday night. It was an attempt to take control of this important issue away from the federal government. Ottawa is responsible for the majority of immigration policy in Canada, and not the provinces. Smith is also trying to stop a growing Alberta separatist movement that has threatened Canadian unity, as Mark Carney tries to improve relations with the western provinces, rich in resources, to meet economic challenges brought on by President Donald Trump’s trade policies. Smith, a reporter on Friday, said that the government wants to give Albertans hope?that the Canadian Federation can work by allowing them to have a say in immigration policy. She said that if the citizen-led separatist initiative succeeds in gathering enough signatures, the question will be put to a vote. Smith stated that her government will face a significant budget deficit next week, due in part to a decrease in royalties from provincial resources as a result of lower oil prices globally. She also blamed Alberta’s fiscal problems on its exceptionally rapid population increase, which is the fastest in Canada. Statista Canada says that Alberta's population will surpass 5 million in 2025. In the last five years, it has grown by more than 600,000. This, Smith said, is putting strain on the province's resources. In her address, she stated that "throwing the doors wide open has led to a flood of people in our classrooms, emergency room and social support system, all at once." Gabriel Brunet is the spokesman of Dominic LeBlanc who is Canada's Minister for Intergovernmental Affairs. He said that the federal government took note of Smith's speech and had also taken steps to "regain control" over the immigration system. Brunet stated that "Albertans would express their views about these and other issues raised by Premier Smith as they did in the past on constitutional questions." According to ATB Financial, the main difference in population growth between Alberta and other provinces is that Alberta has an extremely high level of interprovincial immigration from Canadians looking for better housing and opportunities. Smith stated that "Albertans" identified international immigration in recent town halls as a top concern. She will therefore seek a mandate from a referendum to make changes. She said that the changes could include a new law mandating only Canadian citizens, Permanent Residents and individuals with "Alberta-approved immigration status" be eligible for programs funded by the province, such as education, health and social services.
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US lawmakers prepare to vote on Iran war powers as Trump considers strikes
Congress may vote next week on whether to prevent 'President Donald Trump' from striking Iran without the approval of lawmakers. The U.S. Military is preparing for a possible serious conflict with Iran if diplomacy fails. Members of Congress have repeatedly tried to pass resolutions, which would prevent Trump from taking military action without the approval of lawmakers. The Constitution of the United States gives Congress, not the president, the power to send U.S. troops into war. The Constitution gives Congress the power to send U.S. soldiers to war, except for limited strikes to protect national security. Last week, it was reported that the military has been preparing to deal with the possibility of a sustained operation lasting weeks if Trump ordered an attack. Trump's Republicans have a'slim majority' in the Senate and House, and they've blocked these resolutions. They argue that Congress shouldn't restrict Trump's powers on national security. Democratic Senator Tim Kaine from Virginia and Republican Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky have filed a Senate Resolution late last month that would block hostilities unless they were explicitly authorized by an official declaration of war. Kaine, in a Friday statement, said that if some of his colleagues supported war, they should vote for it and be accountable to their constituents rather than hide under their desks. On Friday, an aide to Kaine stated that there was still no date set for when the Senate might take up the resolution. Thomas Massie of Kentucky, and Ro?Khanna of California both said that they?planned? to force a vote next week on?a resolution similar. Trump officials claim that there is a 90% probability of an attack on Iran. Khanna wrote in a post at X.com that he couldn't do it without Congress.
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MORNING BID AMERICAS-Oil engulfed
By Mike Dolan February 20th - What Mike Dolan, the ROI team and I are looking forward to reading, watching and listening to this weekend. Mike Dolan is Editor-at-Large for Markets & Finance Hello Morning Bid readers! The markets have had a strangely shortened holiday week. U.S., Canadian and Chinese exchanges were closed on Monday and the markets in South Korea and China were closed for much of the week to celebrate Lunar New Year. The news flow didn't slow down much. The surge in crude oil was probably the biggest macro-move of the week. The price of oil had fallen as U.S. - Iran talks and the parallel negotiations about the Ukraine war began in Geneva on Tuesday. Since then, however, with no tangible outcome and increased military activity in the Gulf and maneuvering, crude prices have risen 6% and are now at their highest level since August. Energy traders are wary about a disruption of supply in the Gulf, even if prices don't yet reflect this. There is little chance that sanctions-imposed Russian crude will return to the world market anytime soon. OPEC+ is reportedly leaning toward an increase in April production, but it's more than just supply concerns that are driving prices. In January, the U.S. manufacturing sector recorded its largest monthly increase in 11 months. This is in line with growing evidence that global economic growth picked up as we entered 2026. This industry's growth is not an isolated event. It goes hand in hand with the strong employment report from the same month. The Philadelphia Federal Reserve Business Survey for February registered activity levels almost double forecasts, and trade data from December showed an increase in U.S. Imports. This could be a sign of the hundreds of millions of dollars that Big Tech companies are planning to invest in AI by 2026. While markets await Nvidia's quarterly results, which are expected next week, signs were that the world's largest company was still closing big deals, this time with Meta, one of the so called hyperscalers. Meta has already announced that it will almost double its AI capital expenditure this year. There are concerns about the circular nature of investments made by a small group of high-tech companies. Nvidia is close to investing $30 billion in OpenAI, one of Nvidia's largest customers. Investors are also becoming more wary of what they believe to be AI overspending. And, new AI breakthroughs in the last month have caused existential concerns for companies from wealth managers to software firms. The picture is also clouded by a growing global backlash against social media's negative effects on children. S&P 500 stock trackers, the 'Magnificent 7' and Nvidia shares are all in the red this year. The private credit sector is also expressing concern that AI-related damage to the software industry could affect some funds. Blue Owl Capital shares fell 6% Thursday after the company announced that it was selling $1.4billion in assets to credit funds. This will allow it to return capital and pay off debt while also permanently stopping redemptions from one fund. Shares of other private credit firms were also affected. In macro markets, concerns over economic overheating were sparked by the recent oil price spike. Treasury yields rose throughout the week. The minutes of the January Fed meeting revealed that most policymakers had no plans to resume easing. There was also a split in opinion about whether AI would be able to test the capacity limitations in the economy before a disinflationary boom could occur. The Fed is facing a leadership transition, and while the Fed's inflation concerns are less acute in Europe at the moment, the European Central Bank could also be. The Financial Times reported that President Christine Lagarde could step down before the end of her term in October 2027. Reports cited the rationale that Emmanuel Macron would have a chance to choose her successor before he leaves his office in May next year. The ECB initially reacted to the report, saying that no decision had yet been made. However, ECB sources stated that Lagarde assured her colleagues she was not leaving yet. She told the Wall Street Journal on Friday that her baseline' is to finish her term. Still, names for her successor have circulated again. Former Spanish central banker Pablo Hernadez de Cos, the head of Bank for International Settlements and former Spanish bank chief, seems to be in front. However former Dutch central banks Klaas Knot or even Bundesbank boss Joachim Nagel have been mentioned as potential candidates. Other speculation about Bank of England eased after UK headline inflation numbers and private sector wage increases were soft. The fourth quarter GDP for the United States will be released on Friday, and some are watching for a possible Supreme Court decision regarding Donald Trump's emergency powers to impose tariffs. Trump's State of the Union address next week is likely to focus on his 'affordability drive' during the election year, and on Wednesday Nvidia will release its eagerly anticipated quarterly results. Energy markets will be closely watching the tensions around Iran this weekend, with Trump telling Tehran to reach a deal in 10 to 15 days about its nuclear program, or else "really bad" things will happen. Check out Open Interest for more news on commodities and markets. Find out which sectors will be the winners and losers when the U.S. reverses its climate policies. Also, learn how Big Tech and aluminium smelters are competing for power. Check out what the ROI team recommends you read, watch, and listen to as we enter the weekend. Please contact me at to let me know what you think. This weekend we are reading... RON BOUSSO is a ROI Energy Columnist. The Tony Blair Institute has published a report urging Britain to reset its energy policy. It argues that rapid targets for decarbonization could raise consumer prices. The report also recommends a greater use of domestic oil and natural gas along with net-zero goals. MIKE DOLAN is a ROI Finance & Markets columnist. In the January update of its CBO, it revised down its estimate for net immigration in 2025 by 1.6 millions from a year earlier, to 410,000. It also reduced its estimate for 2026 by 1 million. CBO says that although the gap between the current projections and the previous ones will close by 2030, without immigration the population will begin to shrink. A new Brookings study shows that the population growth rate in the United States had already dropped to the lowest ever recorded by 2024-25. GAVIN MAGUIRE is a columnist for the Global Energy Transition, a think-tank. A new paper by Ember argues that the current way of measuring "useful energy" in the world needs to be updated. Listening to... ANDY HOME: The ROI Metals columnist, Andy Home, is featured in this Power Current podcast hosted by Chris Berry, with Arnab Datt of Employ America, and Alex Turnbull of Critical Minerals Investor. This podcast offers an interesting discussion about securing supply chain and reducing dependence on China. It also discusses the role of stockpiling and price floors as well as tariffs. We're always watching... CLYDE RUSSELL is a columnist for the Asia Commodities & Energy Column of ROI. I was invited to join Gulf Intelligence’s Daily Energy Markets Podcast in order to discuss crude oil markets and the Iranian premium, and whether or not it's too much. Also, we discussed China's storage flow. Want to receive Morning Bid every morning in your email? Subscribe to the newsletter by clicking here. Follow us on LinkedIn, X and ROI. The opinions expressed by the authors are their own. These opinions do not represent the views of News. News is bound by the Trust Principles to maintain integrity, independence and freedom from bias. (By Mike Dolan).
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Copper, aluminium drive higher after court rejects Trump tariffs
The prices of copper, aluminium, and other base metals rose on Friday as the U.S. Supreme Court overturned sweeping tariffs that were imposed by President Donald Trump in accordance with a law meant to address national emergencies. London?Metal Exchange benchmark 3-month copper increased 0.8% to $12,917 per metric ton at 1720 GMT. It had previously reached $12,985.50, its highest level in a week. Aluminium also rose 1.2% to $3103.50. The ruling is "constructive" for base metals, as it reduces the near-term risk to global trade flows and demand. The upside will likely be limited, however, given that some sector-specific duties are still in effect and other trade measures are possible," said ING commodities strategist EwaManthey. The?ruling did not affect U.S. Tariffs on Primary Aluminium, Copper Products and Steel since Trump didn't use the emergency law as a justification. He used Section 232 of the Trade Act to justify the metals tariffs. Manthey reported that aluminium had reached its highest level in a week earlier on investor concerns over constrained growth of supply. China, the world's largest producer of aluminium, recently met the annual production limit of 45 million tons set by the government. Meanwhile, another smelter in the U.S. has closed due to high electricity prices. Although volumes were muted due to the Lunar New Year holiday closure of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, the rest of the market did gain. The market will reopen on February 24. The price of copper has recently been impacted by?rising inventory. Stocks at LME-approved storage facilities grew to 235.150 tons Data?showed that Friday was the highest level of sales since March 2025. So far this year, inventories have risen by 65%. LME 'zinc' gained 1.1%, to $3,375 per ton. Nickel added 0.4%, to $17 350. Tin advanced 2.4%, to $46,740. Lead rose 0.6%, to $1,965.50. (Reporting and editing by David Goodman, Jon Boyle and Ishaan Verma Additional reporting by Ishaan rora and Swati rma in Bengaluru)
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Businesses celebrate victory over Trump tariffs but refunds may take some time
The Supreme Court of the United States ruled that the White House emergency tariffs were invalid. This was a victory for thousands of businesses. The refund process?has just begun. The court's decision could have a ripple effect on the global economy. It ruled that Donald Trump cannot use the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act in order to levy a broad?tariff on imports. The corporate world spent months adapting to Trump's constantly-evolving policy on trade and his use of tariffs to advance his agenda. Not only to address trade issues, but also to act as a weapon against the policies and actions of other governments. There are thousands of businesses that will now decide whether or not to seek refunds. This is because it's more than just a lawsuit. $175 billion Penn-Wharton Budget Model's economists stated on Friday that the tariffs collected in the U.S. could be refunded. The shares of the affected companies rose, from LVMH and Hermes to Italian luxury outerwear company Moncler. Consumer goods, automotive and manufacturing companies, as well as apparel manufacturers, have been particularly affected by the tariffs, since they rely on low-cost production from China, Vietnam and India. Trump's tariffs increase the cost of imported finished goods and components. This squeezes margins and disrupts finely-tuned global supply chains. Since April, more than 1,800 cases relating to tariffs have been filed at the U.S. Court of International Trade. This court has jurisdiction in tariffs and customs issues. In 2024, there were only a few dozen such suits. Plaintiffs include the Japanese motorcycle manufacturer Kawasaki Motors, subsidiaries of Japan's Toyota Group and U.S. big box retailer Costco. Also included are tire maker Goodyear Tire & Rubber as well as aluminum company Alcoa. Many lawyers believe that many other companies will join the lawsuits, as they waited for the ruling so as not to attract unwanted attention. The companies will join the queue of other companies that could wait for months or even years to recover billions in import duties. Lawyers have stated that the refund process will be long and those who filed early may get reimbursed more quickly. "Companies are faced with the challenge of collecting detailed import data in order to calculate the tariffs that were paid under different regimes which were applied at different times. Nabeel Yousef, a partner at Freshfields law firm, said that even multinational companies may not have their data organized neatly. He said that even with the ruling on Friday, "it's not like companies will start receiving checks in the post" on Monday. Tariffs are a burden on consumers who have already been drained by years of inflation following COVID. Last week, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York stated that 90% of Trump’s tariffs were paid by American companies and consumers. This was a response to the White House's claim that foreigners are responsible for the levies. According to the Yale Budget Lab, as of November, the U.S. effective tariff rate was 11,7%. This compares with a 2.7% average between 2022-2024. More suits coming? Some companies were initially reluctant to challenge the Trump Administration on tariffs. However, this attitude changed after the Supreme Court hearing held in November. During the hearing, several justices expressed doubts about Trump's legal reasoning for his expansive actions on trade. It is expected that the U.S. Court of International Trade will handle refund logistics. Trump officials have stated that they will continue to use lawful authority in order to levy duties, such as laws which allow the United States the ability to protect itself against unfair trade practices, or to shield sectors vital to national security. Tariffs will not disappear. "They're going to be under another umbrella," said Ted Murphy. Ted Murphy is the co-leader for Sidley's global trade, arbitration and advocacy practice. The automotive sector will continue facing significant tariffs that were not levied by the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act. Last year, import tariffs of 25 percent were imposed on vehicles coming from Mexico or Canada. This was based on national security grounds. Attorneys say, however, that thousands of auto components shipped to the U.S. by?countries under Trump's reciprocal duties are likely being levied, increasing costs for parts suppliers and carmakers. Anticipating a long refund process, some U.S. firms have decided to sell their rights to receive refunds to investors. The companies will accept a small upfront payment - about 25-30 cents per dollar - and agree to give the remainder to investors if the tariffs are overturned. This was reported in December. DHL, a German logistics company, said it would use its technology to make sure that customers receive refunds "accurately and efficiently" when they are authorized. The companies have not yet confirmed whether they will lower prices to appease middle- and low-income Americans who have cut back on their spending due to rising costs. "We would certainly file for a reimbursement as I'm sure every other importer will do. I doubt that prices will drop. This rarely happens," said Jason Cheung CEO of Huntar Co., a small toymaker that is one of plaintiffs.
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Andy Home: ROI-West must set its own prices to avoid China's control of rare earths.
The U.S. government's groundbreaking deal with domestic producer MP Materials has resulted in a sharp rise in the price for rare earths. The good news is that the U.S. government won't have to subsidise the MP Materials' production of neodymium & praseodymium(NdPr), as long as the prices remain above $110 per kilogram. Since signing the agreement with the Department of Defense in July of last year, the innovative floor-price system has protected the U.S. National?champion against low prices. DoD earns 30% of the price increase. The problem is that China sets the price reference. If the West is to break China's stranglehold on rare Earths, they need not only their own production base, but also their own market pricing mechanisms. CHINESE PRICING Power According to MP Materials' regulatory filing, the current reference point in the MP Materials-DoD deal is the ex works China NdPr Index compiled by Asian Metal. A competing Chinese agency, Shanghai Metal Market (SMM), is also referred to in the chart. China's dominance in the supply chain reflects its influence on rare earths prices globally. It is the largest physical market for critical metals required to make permanent magnets. Chinese pricing is inevitably accompanied by Chinese characteristics. By its nature, a Chinese ex-works will be a reference to the?dynamics of the Chinese market. They are diverging from the West's, where the West is trying to develop its own supply chain while China restricts exports. The way Chinese prices are set is even more problematic. AM and SMM both provide market data on industrial metals. Both must adhere to Beijing's legal framework, which is codified in its 1998 Pricing Law. According to a report from a U.S. Select Committee on China, published in November 2025? Select Committee on China "effectively makes illegal the publication of prices that differ from the PRC Government's wishes." Escape Clause The price mechanism embedded in the U.S. Government's agreement with MP Materials contains an escape clause. The DoD can choose to change the price reference from AM's assessment to the Chinese market if "an internationally recognized alternative index is developed which expresses the middle-market price of NdPr (Pr6O11 25%) and Nd2O3 (75%). Both Western price reporting agencies as well as exchanges appear to be aiming for this exact outcome. Benchmark Mineral Intelligence began collecting prices of rare earths sold outside China. The CME Group, as well as the Intercontinental Exchange, are also studying the possibility of rare earth futures. LITHIUM TEMPLATE Lithium is a good example of a template. Price swings at China's Wuxi Exchange, and more recently Guangzhou Futures Exchange have historically had a great impact on the Western market. The CME's development of futures contracts for lithium has reduced the dependence on Chinese prices. The first two years after the CME launched its contract for lithium hydroxide in 2021 saw a minimal turnover. Activity has increased rapidly since the Western market matured and both buyers and seller sought alternatives to Chinese exchange prices. CME volumes increased by 37% in 2025, and the January turnover reached a record of 19,590 contracts. CME has added to the original contract?with options contracts, a contract for lithium carbonate, and a contract for spodumene, creating an holistic supply-chain products suite. Chinese prices still influence Western pricing, as China is the largest market for lithium and rare earths. Western lithium companies no longer have to rely on Chinese price discovery. They now have the ability to hedge their risk and attract funding for new projects. TRANSPARENCY China's pricing power in critical minerals is due to its dominance in both the physical supply chain as well as in price discovery. For the West to be free, it must address both sides of the issue. The U.S. Geological Survey has designated 60 minerals as critical, including lithium and rare earths. To build Western supply chains, you need to create a market ecosystem that is complementary. The price of NdPr in China will determine the fate of both the U.S. taxpayers and government. Andy Home is a journalist. This column is a favorite of yours? Open Interest (ROI), a data-driven, thought-provoking commentary on the markets and finance is available at Open Interest. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, X and X. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast daily on Apple, Spotify or the app. Subscribe to the Morning Bid podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets seven days a weeks.
Trump's rule on asylum seekers could stop work permits for many years
The proposed rule, published by the Trump administration on Friday would pause work permits for asylum seekers for "many years". This would be one of the most significant changes in asylum-seeker employment authorizations for decades.
The U.S. Department of Homeland Security has proposed a rule that aims to reduce the incentives for migrants to apply for asylum in order to obtain legal work authorization. It also aims to decrease the processing workload and increase security checks.
The proposed change, which is likely to face legal challenges, is part of an effort by the Trump administration to reduce legal and illegal immigration. Trump, a Republican returned to office in 2025 following a campaign which portrayed asylum seekers and immigrants as criminals, and an economic drain on U.S. Communities despite evidence that contradicted these claims. DHS's new proposal would stop issuing work permits to all new asylum seekers until the average processing time for certain asylum requests reaches 180 days. DHS estimates that it will take 14-173 years for the current wait time to allow work permits to be issued. However, other factors may shorten this timeline.
The Trump administration has also proposed more restrictive criteria for asylum-based employment permits. They argue that work permits "are not entitlements" and are issued at the DHS secretary's discretion.
The regulation will generally prevent migrants who have entered the U.S. without permission from obtaining new work permits, or renewing their existing ones. This restriction would only apply to people who informed U.S. border authorities within 48 hours of entering the country that they feared persecution or torture, or had another urgent reason for crossing illegally.
In a press release, DHS stated that "this rule, if finalized, will reduce the incentives to file frivolous or fraudulent asylum claims, as well as those with no merit." Finalizing a regulation may take several months, or even years. DHS will take public comments?on this measure for 60-days after it is published in the Federal Register.
Immigrant advocates, as well as some Democrats, have criticised Trump's approach to asylum seekers. They say it is in violation of U.S. law and international law. (Reporting and editing by Ted Hesson, Chizu Nomiyama, and Andrea Ricci)
(source: Reuters)