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South African rand gains from gold rally
The South African rand strengthened on Thursday. It retained recent gains that were a result of a gold rally which boosted the majority of emerging market assets. At 1245 GMT the rand was trading at 17.09 per dollar, an increase of 0.3% over Wednesday's closing price. The gold price held above $4,000 per ounce as investors remained uncertain about the U.S. Government shutdown which is now in its ninth day. The recent record-breaking price of gold, which is traditionally viewed as a safe haven during periods of uncertainty, was due to economic unrest and expectations of interest rate reductions in the United States. The dollar has largely remained flat, as traders were unable to access key economic data due to the government shutdown. South Africa's manufacturing data was a focus for traders who were based in South Africa. Shown Below The production dropped 1.5% on an annual basis in August after a downward revision of 1.3% on an annual basis in July. The analysts polled expected that production growth would have slowed down to just 0.1%. The Top-40 Index on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange was the last to gain 0.1%. The yield on the benchmark 2035 South African government bond fell by 6.5 basis points, to 9.025%. (Reporting and editing by Sfundo parakozov, Anathi madubela. Editing Mark Potter.
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Can the Congo control the wild cobalt markets? Andy Home
The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC)'s February ban on cobalt exports has pushed the price of battery metal to a new low. The world's biggest producer wants to take it a step further by leveraging its unique geology to control a market that is notoriously volatile. Export quotas were set for this year, 2026 and 2027. The volume is less than half that of last year and the intention is to reduce global stocks that have been accumulated after consecutive years of surplus. The Congo's state mineral regulator ARECOMS is entitled to adjust these quotas quarterly and to purchase any surplus production to export allowances. This will set the stage for a cobalt buffer store backed by the government. It is clear that this will be a long term project to control the market, but similar projects have not always had a positive history. The Flood: Stemming the FLOOD Congo exported to China 220,000 tons of cobalt in the form cobalt hydrxide last year. Over the past five years, output has doubled and outpaced global demand growth. The cobalt price fell to its lowest level in 10 years at the beginning of 2025 as a result of the surplus. This is the latest decline in a long history of rising and falling prices. According to Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, the February export ban increased the price of cobalt by nearly 50% and the price for hydroxide had more than doubled. Imposition of export quotas, effective next week, has given it a new boost. London Metal Exchange Cobalt now trades at $38,960 a ton, its highest level since February 20,23. The new market structure is a result of the quotas that are capped at 96.600 tons annually in 2026 and 2027. BMI estimates that if the Congo export restrictions are not changed, they will result in a market deficit in 2025-2027, which would lead to a reduction of supply chain inventory. Small operators and processing facilities without captive mines are exempt from the DRC government's exemption, which could provide some flexibility in supply. Not much. After three years of falling prices, the informal cobalt mines in the country are much smaller. BUFFER STOCKS Export quotas are split into two levels: a base of 87,000 tonnes, which is allocated based on export history, and a 9,600-ton strategic quota reserved for the Congo's minerals regulator ARECOMS. ARECOMS has the authority to purchase any excess cobalt that is produced by operators over their export allowance. Since exports were stopped in February, stocks within the country have been building. China's CMOC is the world's biggest producer, thanks to its massive Congolese copper and cobalt operations. It reported a cobalt stock of 57,000 tonnes at the end the second quarter. The decision will be made by the cobalt producer and any other producers whether to reduce production to match individual export permits, which have not yet been announced, or to continue producing. The current high price of copper will not stop anyone from mining it, but does it make sense to run the cobalt-by-product through an hydroxide line when it cannot be exported? It is difficult to predict how much material the government can purchase because each company has its own set of economic calculations. The underlying intent is to use ARECOMS for market equilibrium, purchasing surplus material at low prices and releasing them when the prices rise. TOTAL CONTROL? It is not a new thing for commodity producers to try and control the market price. OPEC still has a strong influence on oil prices, but the state-backed structures that managed the coffee and tin market collapsed in 1980s. In the history of market failures, the bankruptcy of the manager of the tin-buffer stock still has a prominent place. The 1985 London Metal Exchange almost collapsed due to the tin shortage. This led to years of legal disputes. The scheme was not flexible enough to adapt to the changing dynamics of the market and collapsed under its own weight. The DRC enjoys a significant advantage due to its ability to control the global supply chain. The DRC accounts for over 70% of the global output, and it has by far most reserves. The market dynamics are also on its side. The cobalt market is growing at a healthy rate despite the threat of alternative battery chemistries. The tin buffer manager was plagued by a declining demand profile, as plastics and aluminium eroded the use of tin in the packaging industry. The governments are also rushing to stockpile strategic quantities of a metal that is deemed critical both for military and civil reasons. China has been an important strategic cobalt purchaser over the past couple of years, and the United States Defense Logistics Agency is currently tendering up to 7,500 tonnes of alloy-graded metal over the next 5 years. In such a market context, the Congo has the muscle to not only engineer a price floor but also to force the much-needed destocking along the entire process chain. The real challenge will be to manage the price increase that results. Any Congolese buffer-stock manager who sees cobalt prices increase too quickly and too far, as they did twice in the past ten years will be faced with the problem of simultaneously destroying demand and causing supply to grow in other parts of the world. Even with the backing of the state, it can be difficult to control a market, especially if the market has a long history of volatility. These are the opinions of the columnist, an author for.
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Silver surpasses $50 and gold reaches $4,000
Gold prices held above $4000 an ounce as investors assessed the Israel/Hamas ceasefire agreement. Meanwhile, broader geopolitical uncertainty and expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts fueled bullish sentiment. Silver has reached the psychological $50 level for the very first time. This was boosted by the record-breaking gold rally, increasing investor demand, and a deficit in supply. At 1226 GMT, spot gold was unchanged at $4038.59 an ounce. U.S. Gold Futures for December Delivery fell 0.3% to $4,577.70. On Wednesday, gold prices hit a new record of $4,059.05. Silver rose 2.2% to $50.01 an ounce. This metal has gained over 73% in this year. It is benefiting from similar factors that are driving the gold rally, as well as the tightness of the spot market. "The silver market has an interesting feature: the net long positions have only slightly increased, so this rally is not driven by speculative interests. This move in silver's price is based on some solid fundamentals, according to independent analyst Ross Norman. U.S. president Donald Trump announced a ceasefire agreement and hostage swap between Israel and Hamas as part of the first phase in his plan to end Gaza's war. The gold rally faces resistance due to the Gaza diplomatic breakthrough, which reduces risk-off flow, and the ongoing U.S. Dollar recovery, which undermines the bullion's power, making it vulnerable for pullbacks," Nikos Tzabouras Senior Market Analyst, Tradu. The path to new highs remains wide open. The U.S. Dollar Index hovered at a high of two months, making bullion priced in dollars more expensive for buyers from overseas. Gold's rise has been attributed to geopolitical factors, such as the Middle East conflict and the war in Ukraine. Also, ETF flows, U.S. interest rate cuts, and tariff-related economic uncertainty have contributed. The metal is set to have the biggest annual gain since 1979, with a 53% increase year-to date. According to the minutes of their meeting on September 16-17, Federal Reserve officials were in agreement that the risks facing the U.S. employment market warranted a rate reduction, but they remained cautious due to stubborn inflation. The markets are pricing in a cut of 25 basis points in October and December. UBS stated in a report that "the ongoing U.S. shutdown has given (gold) a boost, along with mounting fiscal concerns in Japan & France due to recent political leadership change." Gold that does not yield is a good investment in low-interest-rate environments and times of geopolitical and economic uncertainty. Lukman Otunuga is a senior research analyst with FXTM. He said that if risk sentiment continues improving, gold prices may fall in the short term as investors rush to riskier assets. Platinum rose 0.1% to $1,664.30. Palladium rose 1.9% to $1476.35, a record high.
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Silver surpasses record levels of $4,000 and gold
Gold prices were above $4,000 per ounce as investors analyzed the Israel-Hamas truce deal. Meanwhile, broader geopolitical uncertainty and expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts fueled bullish sentiment. Silver reached a new record, thanks to gold's record-breaking rally. Investor demand, as well as a deficit in supply, also helped. At 1132 GMT, spot gold remained unchanged at $4.038.49 an ounce. U.S. Gold Futures for December Delivery fell 0.3% to $4,577.80. On Wednesday, gold prices rose to a record $4,059.05. Silver rose 1.5% to $49.63 an ounce. This metal has gained more than 70% in this year. It is benefiting from factors similar to those that have driven gold's rally, as well as the tightness of the spot market. "The silver market has an interesting feature: the net long positions have only slightly increased, so this rally is not driven by speculative interests. This move in silver's price is based on some solid fundamentals, according to independent analyst Ross Norman. U.S. president Donald Trump announced a ceasefire agreement and hostage swap between Israel and Hamas as part of the first phase in his plan to end Gaza's war. The gold rally faces resistance due to the Gaza diplomatic breakthrough, which reduces risk-off flow, and the ongoing U.S. Dollar recovery, which undermines the bullion's power, making it vulnerable for pullbacks, said Nikos Tzabouras Senior Market Analyst at Tradu. The path to new highs remains wide open. The U.S. Dollar Index hovered at a high of two months, making bullion priced in dollars more expensive for buyers from overseas. Gold's rise has been attributed to geopolitical factors, such as the Middle East conflict and the war in Ukraine. Also, ETF flows, U.S. interest rate cuts, and tariff-related economic uncertainty have contributed. The metal is set to have the biggest annual gain since 1979, with a 53% increase year-to date. According to the minutes of their meeting on September 16-17, Federal Reserve officials were in agreement that the risks facing the U.S. employment market warranted a rate reduction, but they remained cautious due to stubborn inflation. The markets are pricing in a cut of 25 basis points in October and December. UBS stated in a report that "the ongoing U.S. shutdown has given (gold) a boost, along with mounting fiscal concerns in Japan & France due to recent political leadership change." Gold that does not yield is a good investment in low-interest-rate environments and times of geopolitical and economic uncertainty. Lukman Otunuga is a senior research analyst with FXTM. He said that if risk sentiment continues improving, gold prices may fall in the short term as investors rush to riskier assets. Palladium rose 1.9% to $1476.76 and platinum increased 0.1% to $1663.71. This is a record high for more than two years.
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Gold holds above $4,000, European stock rally stops
On Thursday, the rally in European shares paused, as the FTSE 100 was dragged lower by banking stocks, and investors weighed the risks of a correction. Wall Street reached new record highs during the previous session as investors bet gains in technology shares, despite a U.S. shutdown that left traders without key economic data. Investors have been nervous about the U.S. government shutdown, political risks in Japan, and France this week. This has created a safe-haven market, which along with a weaker US dollar has pushed gold to $4,000 for first time. STOXX Down 0.2% On The Day At 1059 GMT, the STOXX 600 index was down by 0.2% and London's FTSE 100 also fell by 0.2%. Losses at HSBC Group and Lloyds Banking Group were partially offset by gains at mining and technology companies. The MSCI World Equity Index rose just 0.1% for the day. U.S. Stock Futures dropped, pointing towards a mixed opening for Wall Street. Fiona Cincotta is the senior analyst for City Index. "It feels like we are missing out on any substance in the moves that we see, because we don't get that data from the U.S." JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon, in a sign that investors are becoming more cautious, said that there is a greater risk of a major correction of the U.S. Stock Market within the next 6 months to 2 years. He cited factors such as geopolitical tensions and government spending, along with remilitarization across the globe. Donald Trump, the U.S. president, announced late Wednesday night that Israel and Hamas reached an agreement on a ceasefire as well as a hostage release. French bonds maintained their gains from Wednesday after President Emmanuel Macron announced that he will name a new premier by Friday evening. This raised hopes that a country-wide election could be avoided and a budget agreed. The benchmark German 10-year bond yield is 2.679%, while the 10-year French government bonds yield is 3.4962%. The dollar index rose 0.1%, but it was still down 8.9% for the entire year. The euro, which was down by 0.1% to $1.1612 on its fourth consecutive day, is in a downward trend. Overnight, the Japanese yen fell to a record low of 153 yen per dollar. However, it was last slightly stronger at 152.75. The economist who advised the policy circle for Japan's potential new premier Sanae Takayi said that the current weakening of the yen is good for the economy and the impact on households due to rising import costs could be offset through aggressive fiscal spending. The oil prices were stable as traders waited for the outcome of the agreement between Israel and Hamas. Gold remained at $4,039.59. Kristalina Georgeeva, Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund, warned investors on Wednesday not to become complacent, saying that the global economy had proven to be more resilient than anticipated. China has tightened export restrictions on rare earth technologies, extending April's restrictions.
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Silver surpasses record levels of $4,000 and gold
Gold prices rose above $4,000 per ounce as investors analyzed the Israel-Hamas truce deal. Meanwhile, broader geopolitical uncertainty and expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts fueled bullish sentiment. Silver reached a new record, thanks to gold's record-breaking rally. Investor demand, as well as a deficit in supply, also helped. At 0956 GMT, spot gold remained unchanged at $4.035.07 an ounce. U.S. Gold Futures for December Delivery fell 0.4% to $4,546. On Wednesday, gold prices surpassed $4,000 an ounce for a first time, reaching a record of $4,059.05. Silver rose 1.6% to $49.65 an ounce. Metals have gained more than 70% this year. This is due to the same factors that are driving the gold rally, as well as the tightness of the spot market. "The silver market has an interesting feature: the net long positions have only slightly increased, so this rally is not driven by speculative interests. This move in silver's price is based on some solid fundamentals, according to independent analyst Ross Norman. U.S. president Donald Trump announced a ceasefire agreement and hostage swap between Israel and Hamas as part of the first phase in his plan to end Gaza's war. The gold rally faces resistance due to the Gaza diplomatic breakthrough, which reduces risk-off flow, and the ongoing U.S. Dollar recovery, which undermines the bullion's power, making it vulnerable for pullbacks," Nikos Tzabouras Senior Market Analyst, Tradu. The path to new highs remains wide open. The U.S. Dollar Index hovered at a high of two months, making bullion priced in dollars more expensive for buyers from overseas. Gold's rise has been attributed to geopolitical factors, such as the Middle East conflict and the war in Ukraine. Also, ETF flows, U.S. interest rate cuts, and tariff-related economic uncertainty have contributed. The metal is set to have the biggest annual gain since 1979, with a 53% increase year-to date. According to the minutes of their meeting on September 16-17, Federal Reserve officials were in agreement that the risks facing the U.S. employment market warranted a rate reduction, but they remained cautious due to stubborn inflation. The markets are pricing in a cut of 25 basis points in October and December. UBS stated in a report that "the ongoing U.S. shutdown has given (gold) a boost, along with mounting fiscal concerns in Japan & France due to recent political leadership change." Gold that does not yield is a good investment in low interest rate environments and times of geopolitical and economic uncertainty. Lukman Otunuga is a senior research analyst with FXTM. He said that if risk sentiment continues improving, gold prices may fall in the short term as investors rush to riskier assets. Palladium rose 2.1%, to $1480.22. Platinum was up 0.1%, to $1664.44.
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As China returns to the market, copper prices are close to $11,000 per tonne. However, there remain supply concerns.
The copper price hit a 16 month high on Thursday as it rose toward $11,000 a metric ton. Investors in China, the world's largest metals consumer, were returning from a holiday of a week and there was still concern about supply from major mines. As of 0915 GMT, the benchmark three-month copper price on London Metal Exchange had risen 1.9% to $10,872 per kilogram. It had earlier reached $10,890.50 - the highest level since May 2024, when the metal hit a record high of $11,104.50. As trading resumed in China, the most traded copper contract at Shanghai Futures Exchange hit a 16 month high of 87 700 yuan (12,310 dollars) per ton. Total stocks of copper in LME warehouse system The copper price was 139.475 tonnes, the lowest level since late July. The price of a ton dropped to $13 from $29.50 per ton on Wednesday. This indicates a tighter supply in the near term. Teck Resources reduced its production forecast for the Chilean Quebrada Blanca Mine through 2028 on Wednesday. Due to disruptions in major mines including Grasberg, Indonesia, which was closed for a full month, the International Copper Study Group lowered their 2025 market surplus estimates to 178,000 tonnes from 289,000 tons. Tom Price, an analyst at Panmure Liberum, said that if there was any expectation of Grasberg returning faster than what people were told in the last couple of weeks then copper prices would drop. Price said that other events could also trigger a pullback, including a resolution to the U.S. shutdown and signs of an end to the U.S. rate-cut cycle. Copper's strength pushed the base complex up. Aluminium climbed 14% to $2.781.50 after touching $2.793, the highest level since May 2024. Zinc rose 0.9% to $3,000, nickel climbed 0.8% to $16,470, lead climbed 1% to $2001, and tin increased 1.1% to $35,740. (1 Chinese Yuan Renminbi = 7.1245 USD) (Reporting and editing by Subhranshu Sahu, Harikrishan Nair and Subhranshu Sahu)
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European stocks drop after recent record-highs; gold remains above $4,000
Investors weighed the risks of a correction in the market after AI-enthusiasm pushed Asian stocks to new highs over night. Wall Street hit fresh Record highs Investors bet on technology stocks to gain in the previous session despite the U.S. shutdown, which left traders without key Economic data Investors have been nervous about the U.S. government shutdown, political risks in Japan, and France this week. This has created a safe-haven market, which along with a weaker US dollar, has pushed gold to $4,000 for first time. STOXX Down 0.3% On The Day At 0903 GMT, the STOXX 600 index was down by 0.3% and London's FTSE 100 fell 0.3%. Losses Lloyds Banking Group Gains in mining and technology shares partially offset gains. The MSCI World Equity Index remained flat for the day. Fiona Cincotta is the senior analyst for City Index. "We don't get the data we need from the U.S., so it feels like we are missing out on any substance in our movements." Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, has expressed his concern about the increasing caution among investors. There was an increased risk of a significant stock market correction in the U.S. within the next 6 months to 2 years. Donald Trump, President of the United States Israel and Hamas reached an agreement late Wednesday evening Stopfire and hostage negotiation The French bond market held onto Wednesday's gains, after President Emmanuel Macron announced that he will name a new Prime Minister by Friday night. Raising Hopes The country would be able to avoid an election by announcing a budget and avoiding a snap vote. The benchmark German 10-year bond yield is 2.692%, while the 10-year French government bonds yield is 3.5082%. dollar Index made modest gains. It was up 0.1% for the day, at 99.971, though still down 8.9% overall. The euro is in its fourth consecutive day of declines. It was down by 0.1% to $1.1615. Overnight, the Japanese yen fell to an eight-month low at 153 per dollar. However, it was still a little stronger than that at 152.76. Sanae Takaichi, the likely new Japanese premier, is advised by an economist in her policy circle The current weakness of the yen is beneficial to the economy and can be offset with aggressive fiscal spending. The oil prices were stable as traders waited for the outcome of the elections. Stopfire and hostage negotiation Between Israel and Hamas, the agreement would be held. Gold is still at $4,041.29. Kristalina Georgeva, Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund on Wednesday Forecast Investors are warned not to become complacent, as there will be a slight decline in growth globally in 2025 and in 2026. However, the world economy is more resilient than anticipated. tightened Export controls on rare earth technologies are being expanded by the government.
China's gold purchasers squeezed by record price hike
Chinese consumers are fond of gold and have been for a long time, but the record high price is affecting their purchasing power for both jewelry and investment.
Gold prices have risen by more than 50% in the past year, reaching a new record price of over $4,000 per ounce. This is due to geopolitical tensions and uncertainty regarding the global economy.
China's economic woes, which include a weak real estate market, have increased the appetite of people for gold as an asset.
According to reports in state media, gold's record-breaking price has pushed the price per gram to over 1,160 yuan (about 162.93) this week at many Chinese retailers, up from around 630yuan last January.
Yan Lixiaofeng is the owner of wholesale gold dealer Shenzhen Shenhui Jewelry, located in Shuibei - China's biggest wholesale jewelry market. He said that transactions were down 60% compared to an average year.
"In the past, customers could purchase three grams of jewelry with one thousand yuan; today, that same amount only gets them one gram. Yan said, "The difference is enormous."
Store managers and shop assistants at one of Shanghai's biggest gold markets said that more people were buying gold rather than selling it. However, most transactions were exchanges as customers wanted to trade in older jewellery for newer styles.
Wang Haichuan is a worker at a market store. He said that the price increase is significant. He said that the increase in price had discouraged some people, but also encouraged others.
He said that "most people believe it will continue to increase."
Gold prices were still a hot topic at the Shanghai gold market on Thursday.
Zeng Shuangshuang, a customer, said: "I am not a financial manager so I can't say for certain, but I do think that it will increase a little bit."
He Meihong, another customer, said: "I believe there is still room for investment opportunities."
(source: Reuters)