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MORNING BID EUROPE - Who needs a government?
Wayne Cole gives us a look at what the future holds for European and global markets. Treasury yields, the dollar and most Asian stocks are all slightly higher as investors await to see if the last-minute talks will stop the U.S. Government from shutting down on Wednesday. Both sides are aiming for political gain by allowing the government to close. Analysts from BofA estimate that a shutdown would cost 0.1% per week of the GDP, but this would be recovered when it reopened. Investors may have assumed that public pressure would eventually force a deal. A prolonged shutdown would leave the Federal Reserve in the dark when they meet on October 29, and it could also delay the release of the September payroll report, which is due this Friday. The markets have priced in an 89% probability of a Fed cut, assuming that the shutdown would not prevent them from doing so. Trump is also expected to implement his new tariffs, which will affect big trucks, patented medicines, and other products. However, there are still many questions about the exact scope of these tariffs, or if existing country agreements will take precedence. Reports indicate that the Trump administration may consider imposing tariffs on electronic devices imported from abroad based on their number of chips, but how this would actually work is still a mystery. Trade partners are probably wondering why they should do deals with Trump, when he is able to impose new taxes on anything at any time. Trump is having a busy time. He will reportedly attend the top U.S. military brass meeting on Tuesday, which was called last week by Defense Secretary Hegseth. In an interview with CNN, Trump said, "I want them to know that we love and respect them. They're leaders who are cherished. Be strong, be tough, be smart, and be compassionate." The meeting was not made clearer. The social media is ablaze with theories. They range from Hegseth urging the generals to adopt a "warrior culture" to his asking military leaders to swear a personal oath before Trump. Even rumors have circulated that the White House is pulling the U.S. Military from Europe and Asia in order to focus on the Americas. Investors are hoping that nothing dramatic happens this week, as it could cloud the fourth-quarter outlook for stocks. Nasdaq has, on average, returned gains greater than 6% during the December quarter. The world stock market is up 17% this year and worth $15 trillion. Gold and Chinese technology are the two biggest winners. Both have gained almost 40%. Market developments on Monday that may have a significant impact - EU consumer surveys and business surveys. Various EU countries report CPI data for September ECB speakers include Madis Müller, Martins Kazaks, Piero Cilpollone, Isabel Schnabel, and Philip Lane. Speakers include Christopher Waller (Fed), Beth Hammack (Fed), John Williams, Alberto Musalem, and Raphael Bostic
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Gold reaches record highs as rate-cuts and a soft dollar boost appeal
Gold prices reached a record high on Monday. This was largely due to a weaker US dollar and the growing expectation that interest rates will be cut by the Federal Reserve later in this year. As of 0251 GMT the spot gold price was up 0.8% to $3,789.39 an ounce, after reaching a session high of $3798.32. U.S. Gold Futures for December Delivery rose by 0.3% to $3.818.30. The U.S. Dollar Index eased by 0.2% against its competitors, lowering the price of greenback bullion for overseas buyers. Commerce Department reported on Friday that the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index rose by 0.3% in August compared to the 0.2% increase in July. This is in line with the estimates of economists polled. Capital.com analyst Kyle Rodda said, "The benign inflation print in the United States gives the markets reason for believing that further Fed reductions are coming in December and October." "Sentiment has been very bullish, and we're on track to test another record high in this week." Gold is currently positioned very long and this may be a reason for caution about future gains. According to CME FedWatch Tool, traders are pricing in a 90% probability of a Fed reduction in October and a 65% chance of another one in December. In times of geopolitical or economic uncertainty, safe-haven gold bullion flourishes. Investors in Asia were cautious on Monday, as they prepared for the possibility of a shutdown of the U.S. federal government. Investors are now awaiting U.S. data about job openings and private payrolls as well as the ISM Manufacturing PMI, Friday's nonfarm payrolls report, for more clues about the economy's state. SPDR Gold Trust (the world's biggest gold-backed exchange traded fund) said that its holdings increased by 0.89% on Friday to 1,005.72 tons from 996.85 on Thursday. Other metals rose in price as well. Spot silver rose by 1%, to $46.47 an ounce. Platinum climbed 2.6%, to $1.608.90, and palladium grew 1.4%, to $1.287.19.
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Sony Financial shares soar 40% on their debut market
Sony Financial shares jumped up to 40% on their Tokyo debut after being spun off from the entertainment and technology conglomerate Sony. Sony, which focuses on entertainment, distributed shares of its finance division, including banking and insurance, through dividends-in-kind to shareholders. This is the first partial spinoff in Japan to take advantage of the 2023 tax changes and the first direct listing for more than two decades. After trading for the first hour and thirteen minutes in Tokyo at 10:13 am, the shares reached 210 yen before trading at 201.6 at 10:30 am. The reference price is 150 yen. Direct listing is a stock market listing without the traditional initial public offer. Sony Financial announced that it would buy back shares worth up to 100 billion Japanese yen (671.1 million dollars). Sony wants to expand into movies, music and games and continue to be the leader in image sensors.
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Oil prices drop as Kurdistan resumes crude exports, OPEC+ plans to increase output
Oil prices fell by nearly 1% Monday, after the Kurdistan region of Iraq resumed crude exports through Turkey at the weekend. OPEC+ also plans to increase oil production in November. Brent crude futures dropped 63 cents or 0.90% to $69.50 per barrel at 0023 GMT, after Friday's settlement, which was the highest since July 31, had been reached. U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude was trading at $65.07 per barrel, down 65c or 0.99%. This is a significant reversal of Friday's gains. Michael McCarthy, CEO Moomoo Australia & New Zealand, said that "ongoing fears of increased production are limiting gains but a tight outlook near term has crude prices in an abyss as trading week starts." Iraq's oil minister said that crude oil began flowing through the pipeline on Saturday for the first time since 2-1/2 years after a deal was reached to break a deadlock. Iraq's oil ministry told Kurdish radio Rudaw that the agreement between Iraq's Federal Government, the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), and foreign oil companies operating in the area will allow for 180,000-190,000 barrels of crude oil to flow into Turkey's Ceyhan Port each day. The U.S. pushed for a restart that is expected to bring 230,000 bpd or more of crude oil back to the international market at a moment when OPEC+ increases output to gain share. Three sources familiar with the discussions said that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC+) will likely approve a crude production increase of at least 137,000 bpd during its Sunday meeting, as the rising oil price encourages the group to continue to gain market share. OPEC+, however, has been pumping nearly 500,000 bpd below its targets. This is contrary to market expectations that there would be a glut of supply. Brent and WTI both rose by more than 4% in the past week. This was their largest weekly gain since June as Ukraine's drone strikes on Russia's infrastructure for energy cut off fuel exports. Russia launched a sustained attack on Kyiv, and other parts in Ukraine, early Sunday morning. It was the longest assault on the capital city since the war started. (Reporting and editing by Leslie Adler, Jamie Freed, and Florence Tan)
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Indonesia's Pertamina says fuel retailer Vivo agrees to purchase gasoline
Pertamina, the Indonesian state energy company, said that Vivo Energy Indonesia, a private retailer, has agreed to purchase 40,000 barrels out of 100,000 barrels imported by Pertamina to relieve fuel shortages in private retailers. Shell, BP AKR – the operator of BP’s fuel stations – Vivo and other companies ran out of supplies this month after more customers sought them out following a report on the quality of Pertamina’s gasoline. In order to alleviate the shortages, the government has allowed private retailers to import additional fuel via Pertamina. Vivo has agreed to an inter-company process with Pertamina. Vivo will take 40,000 barrels of the 100,000 barrels offered by Pertamina Patra Niaga to serve its clients. Pertamina Patra Niaga said it had ordered 16,000 kilolitres of gasoline (100,640 barrels) that arrived this past week. The state firm offered the cargo to petrol stations including Shell and BP AKR. Dumatubun stated that a surveyor will be appointed by both parties to conduct a quality-and-quantity test of the gasoline following the agreement. A spokesperson for the energy ministry also stated that fuel was now available to private retailers and companies were in discussions about distribution. Shell declined to immediately comment. Shell refused to comment immediately. According to the energy ministry, the remaining import quota of Pertamina of 7.52 million kilolitres could be used by private retailers. Reporting by Fransiska Nanangoy, Jakarta; Editing and proofreading by Kirsiska Donovan and Kim Coghill
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Michigan church shooting leaves 1 dead and 9 injured, police report
Local police reported that a man drove through the doors of a Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints, shot at least ten people and killed one of them. The gunman got out of the vehicle and fired an assault-style weapon. William Renye, Grand Blanc Police Chief said. He said that the car smashed into the church and set it on fire. Social media footage showed smoke billowing from the building while firefighters sprayed water on the fire. Fire trucks and emergency vehicles parked nearby. The chief of police said that authorities believe they will discover additional victims among the ruins. The police did not immediately reveal the name of the suspect who died on the scene after an exchange of gunfire. The chief said that there were no officers at the church. Renye said he was a 40-year old man from Burton in Michigan. No further details are available at this time. In a social media statement, Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer stated that her heart was breaking for the Grand Blanc Community. She said that violence, especially in places of worship is unacceptable. Officials from the United States, including U.S. attorney general Pam Bondi and U.S. president Donald Trump, announced that they were briefed about the shooting. Bondi wrote on X: "Such violent acts in a place for worship are heartbreaking and terrifying." In a statement posted on Truth Social, Trump said that this shooting "appears yet another targeted assault on Christians in the United States of America", and the FBI were on the scene. "THIS EPIDEMIC OF VIOLENCE MUST END, IMMEDIATELY!" Informally, the Mormons are known as The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints. Grand Blanc is a small town with 7,700 residents located about 60 miles (97 kilometers) north of Detroit. Reporting by Brendan O'Brien, in Chicago; Joseph Tanfani, in New York; and Rebecca Cook, in Grand Blanc. Editing by Will Dunham and Leslie Adler.
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Turkish prosecutors have ordered the detention of Ciner, according to state media.
In an investigation of media company Can Holding, which purchased TV channels from Ciner Group's mining-to energy conglomerate, Turkish prosecutors ordered Turgay Ciner to be detained and some of his companies seized. Prosecutors ordered Can Holding to be seized on September 11 as part of an investigation into money-laundering, tax evasion, and organised crime. Can Holding purchased major television channels Haberturk Show TV and Bloomberg HT, from Ciner Group in late 2018. In a report by the state-owned Anadolu News Agency, Istanbul's chief prosecutor said that Turgay Ciner was arrested on Sunday after a suspicion of money laundering was raised. In the statement of the prosecutor, it was also stated that state trustees were appointed to manage Ciner’s Park Holding Inc. and its affiliated companies AFC Import Export Tourism and Zeyfa Import Export. The statement also said that detention warrants had been issued to 10 executives from companies connected to the group in connection with the investigation. Turgay Ciner was not immediately available for comment. Reporting by Darryl Butler and Can Sezer, Editing by Jonathan Spicer, Peter Graff
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Nigeria's oil union stops gas supply to Dangote Refinery due to mass dismissals
The Nigerian oil workers' union ordered its members to stop gas supplies to the Dangote Petroleum Refinery. This escalated a labour conflict after hundreds of workers had been dismissed, and threatened to disrupt fuel supplies in Africa's largest nation. The Petroleum and Natural Gas Senior Staff Association of Nigeria, (PENGASSAN), has directed major oil companies to immediately stop crude and natural gas deliveries to refineries. According to a letter from September 26, the union accused Dangote of "misinformation" and "propaganda" rather than addressing allegations of wrongfully disengaging unionised employees. Dangote Refinery announced on Friday that it had fired a few workers citing sabotage at various units. This sparked criticism by an oil workers union who claimed that over 800 Nigerians were fired and replaced with foreigners, mostly from India. DISPUTE ADDS FURTHER PRESSURE ON DANGOTE REFINERY PENGASSAN's General Secretary Lumumba OKugbawa said that crude oil valves should be closed and vessels heading there immediately stopped being loaded. Dangote Refinery stated that the dismissals are part of an organisational reorganization to improve safety, efficiency and productivity. It stated late Saturday that "absolutely, no law" gives PENGASSAN authority to order its branches to "cut off" gas and crude oil supply to Dangote Refinery at all or even to 'interfere' or disrupt their contracts with suppliers and vendors. This dispute puts pressure on the $20-billion refinery that announced it would stop selling petrol in naira as of September 28th due to a shortage of crude and mismatches with foreign exchange rates. This has led to concerns over fuel prices rising and further pressure on Nigeria's currency. PENGASSAN has said that chairs of union chapters in oil majors should "report immediately the progress of the Directive", signaling a coordinated shut down could disrupt the fuel supply of the country. Reporting by Tife owolabi, Isaac Anyaogu and Ben Ezeamalu. Editing by Toby Chopra, Bernadette Baum and Bernadette Chopra.
Iron ore prices fall on the back of weak steel demand and rising China port stocks
Iron ore prices fell on Monday due to a sluggish demand for steel and a buildup of inventories in Chinese ports.
As of 0241 GMT, the most-traded contract for January iron ore on China's Dalian Commodity Exchange was 1.5% lower at 784.5 Yuan ($110.18).
The benchmark iron ore for September on the Singapore Exchange fell 0.07% to $105.25 per ton.
Analysts from ANZ noted that iron ore futures dropped sharply during the week of October 1-8 due to a slowdown in steel mills restocking.
Hexun Futures, a Chinese broker, said that a combination of high steel supplies and weak demand was impacting the market.
SteelHome data show that the total iron ore stocks at Chinese ports increased by 0.29% in a week to 132.5 million tonnes.
Everbright Futures said that the current high levels of molten-iron production combined with the strong port arrivals suggest that port stocks are likely to increase further.
Brokers said that if steel demand declines, the narrowing margins of steel companies may lead to voluntary production cuts. This could result in a buildup of iron ore stocks.
According to Mysteel, blast furnace operation at integrated steel mills has remained robust in recent years.
Mysteel's data shows that the average furnace capacity utilization rate increased for the third consecutive week in the week of September 19-25, a rise of 0.51 percent points from the previous weeks.
The DCE also saw a drop in other steelmaking ingredients, including coking coal, which fell by 4.03%, and coke, which dropped by 3.75%.
All steel benchmarks at the Shanghai Futures Exchange have lost ground. Rebar dropped 0.92%, while hot-rolled coil fell 0.81%. Wire rod also declined 0.53%, and stainless steel was down 0.39%. ($1 = 7.1201 Chinese yuan) (Reporting by Lucas Liew; Editing by Subhranshu Sahu)
(source: Reuters)