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Steel industry is unsure if China will implement output cuts plans

China has said it will cut its crude steel production this year, but traders and steelmakers believe Beijing will not follow through because the industry is profitable and trade tensions are weighing on the economy.

In March, the world's biggest steel producer announced plans to reduce output and restructure their giant steel sector in order to combat overcapacity that has plagued this industry for years and spilled over onto export markets and angered trade partners.

At the Singapore International Ferrous Week, fifteen traders, analysts, and hedge funds shared the same message. The cuts will not be implemented.

They said that the unexpectedly high demand has led to an improvement in profitability across the entire industry, which undermines some of the rationale behind the initial decision to reduce output. In the period from April to June, the industry's profits reached 16.9 billion Yuan ($2.35billion), compared with a loss last year of 22.2billion Yuan.

Participants bet that Beijing will not crack down on the crime rate, especially since the trade war between the United States and China makes policymakers more sensitive to maintaining economic growth.

Even less incentive exists for local governments, where many of the steel mills contribute significantly to the growth targets that officials are evaluated against.

No one wants to cut production when mills can make money again after struggling for survival the last two years.

Between January and April of this year, the Chinese crude steel production increased by 0.4%.

Many at the conference believed that in China, Beijing's lack of public orders since March's announcement indicated that output reductions would be limited or enforced only partially.

The Chinese consultancy Fubao stated in late April, that although provincial targets had been set for production cuts, there was doubt about whether the steel mills will actually adhere to them.

Mengtian Jiang is the chief ferrous metals analysts at Harizon Insights.

"Steel Mills are Making Money, especially since the domestic coking prices have almost halved. I don't see China's Steel Output will be Down Much."

She added that although steel exports could fall by 3% to 4% in the coming year, this will not have a significant impact on China's output of steel. ($1 = 7.1976 Chinese Yuan Renminbi). (Reporting and editing by Lewis Jackson, Shri Navaratnam and Amy Lv in Singapore)

(source: Reuters)