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The US Core Capital Goods Orders are Plummeting, a Sign of Weak Business Spending

The number of new orders for capital goods manufactured in the United States plummeted in April, amid the uncertainty surrounding the economy due to tariffs. This suggests that business spending on equipment has weakened since the beginning of the second quarter.

Commerce Department's report on Tuesday showed that shipments of this product fell last month. Economists say that President Donald Trump's reversals on import duties are making it hard for businesses to plan. This is evident from the decline in business sentiment.

Stephen Stanley, Santander U.S. Capital Markets' chief U.S. economics, said: "I predicted months ago that business investments would be the primary driver of a softer performance in this year as executives delay their capital projects until there is more clarity about policy." These data confirm that hypothesis for the first time.

Census Bureau of the Commerce Department reported that non-defense capital goods, excluding aircraft orders, fell 1.3% in April after a 0.3% increase, which was upwardly revised, in March. The economists polled had predicted that these core capital goods orders would dip 0.1%, after an earlier reported 0.2% decline in March.

Core capital goods shipments fell 0.1%, after rising 0.5% in March. Orders for nondefense capital goods fell 19.1%. These goods were shipped at a 3.5% increase after a 1.1% decline in March.

The first quarter saw a surge in business equipment spending, mainly information processing equipment. This was the fastest growth in four-and-a half years.

This helped limit the drag of an import flood on the gross domestic product. Trump has deferred the increase in import duties for most countries until July. This month, the White House announced an agreement with Beijing that would reduce tariffs on Chinese products to 30% for 90 days from 145%.

TARIFFS WHIPLASH

Trump escalated his trade war last week, proposing to impose a 50% duty on European Union products starting on June 1, and threatening Apple with a 25 percent duty on iPhones made outside of the United States.

Trump backed down from his threat to the EU at the weekend, and restored a deadline of July 9. He views tariffs as an instrument to, amongst other things, revive the long-declining U.S. industry base. Economists say that this feat would be difficult.

Bookings for communication equipment fell 2.6% last month while orders for computers and electronics products increased 1.0%. Orders for electrical equipment, appliances, and components fell by 0.2%. Orders for metal products and machinery rose 0.8%, while orders for machines fell 0.2%.

Last month, orders for durable goods (items such as toasters and aircraft that are meant to last at least three years) dropped by 6.3% after an upwardly revised 7.6% increase in March.

Prior to this, it was reported that orders for durable goods had risen 7.5% in march. Last month, they were weighed down by the decline in commercial aircraft orders as well as the diminishing boost from tariff-related forward-running.

Boeing announced on its website it received eight orders for aircraft in April. This is down from 192 in the month of March. Orders for motor vehicle and parts declined 2.9%.

After a surge of 23.5% in march, the total number of transportation orders fell 17.1%.

Christopher Rupkey is the chief economist of FWDBONDS. He said that many of the inputs used in the manufacturing of durable goods are manufactured in other countries and will have to be imported, at what appears to be a higher price, when tariffs are taken into account. "It will be very difficult to revive American manufacturing if factories are unable to get the parts that they need at a reasonable price and in a timely fashion."

(source: Reuters)