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Prices largely stable but market risks persist
The Dutch and British wholesale prices of gas were mostly stable on Friday, as Norwegian flows stabilized and the low demand allowed storage to be refilled. However, the tighter market conditions continued to support these prices. LSEG data shows that the benchmark Dutch front-month contract was up 0.26 euros at 35.18 Euro per megawatt hour or $11.68/mmBtu at 0816 GMT. Auxilione, a consultancy, said that with the June contract ending on Friday, market attention is now shifted to July. The Dutch July contract increased by 0.14 euros to 35.40 Euro/MWh. The British front-month contracts were down 1.21 pence, at 83.25 pence/therm. Meanwhile, the weekend contracts were down 1.20 pence, at 82.30 pence/therm. Saku Jussila, LSEG analyst, said that prices are now largely at the same levels as before a Norwegian maintenance period which began last week. Data from infrastructure operators Gassco revealed that the total Norwegian export nominated volumes were down from 296 mcm/d (million cubic metres/day) on Thursday morning to 292 mcm/d by Friday morning. Analysts at Jefferies Equity Research stated in a monthly report that TTF gas prices rose almost 10% in May, driven by concerns about tariffs, the weather and the risk of further delays for upcoming LNG projects. They said that the gas demand in North-West Europe fell by 7%, or 33 mcm/day, over the last eight weeks. Analysts added that although the overall filling level is 19% or 12 billion cubic meters (bcm) below the five-year average, it has been higher than the average for the past five years. They said: "We continue seeing a tighter market in '25 due to increased European injection demand, lost Russian pipe imports (15bcm/yr) and LNG project delay." Gas Infrastructure Europe data shows that European gas storage sites are 47.2% full. The benchmark contract on the European carbon markets was up by 0.20 euros at 71.14 euro per metric ton. Nora Buli, reporting from Oslo; Nina Chestney, editing)
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What are the benefits of early and abundant monsoon rainfall in India?
India's Weather Office has predicted an above-average Monsoon Season for the second consecutive year in 2025. The annual rains will arrive at their earliest date in 16 years. Rains that began on the coast of Kerala, the southernmost state, eight days before the usual schedule, have now reached nearly half of the country. Why is the monsoon important? Monsoons bring about 70% of annual rains to a $4 trillion economy. Agriculture, which employs more than half the population of 1.4 billion people, provides about 16% of that. Rains are important for crops like rice, wheat and sugarcane. They also affect the economy as a whole, boosting growth and limiting inflation of food prices. Export restrictions on sugar could be eased if harvests are higher, as well as those for staples like rice and onions. In the event of a drought, food imports are required and export restrictions. Farmers who earn more money from bigger crops are more likely to buy appliances and jewelery during the festival and wedding seasons, which boosts consumption. WHAT IS THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN INFLATION, CENTRAL BANK POLITICS AND INFLATION? The central bank closely monitors the consumer price index in India, which makes up almost half of its total. In 2024, rains above average helped to keep food prices down. This allowed the Reserve Bank of India to lower lending rates. The RBI will be comforted by the forecast for above-average rains this year. It is likely to reduce interest rates in June, at its third consecutive meeting, and again in August to accelerate growth. What is the immediate impact of early arrival? Early monsoons helped to cool down temperatures in many parts of the country nearing the end of summer when electricity utilities are struggling to meet demand for air conditioning and irrigation of crops. Electricity prices briefly dropped to zero due to the sharp fall in temperatures. The sales of cold drinks, ice creams and other frozen treats have also begun to decline nearly three weeks sooner than expected. Rain is refilling reservoirs throughout southern and western India. This has eased supply concerns during a period when water usually runs out. Which Crops Will Benefit? Farmers will sow crops like paddy, cotton and soybeans earlier than usual, as the monsoon arrives in some areas nearly two weeks before normal. Rice, sugarcane and cotton will all benefit from the above-average rainfall. The yield of crops depends not only on rainfall volume, but also the distribution over the four-month period. Over-rainfall or extended dry spells can reduce yields. (Reporting and editing by Clarence Fernandez; Rajendra Jadhav)
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Iron ore posted a weekly loss due to softer China demand and trade uncertainty
The price of iron ore futures fell on Friday, and the weekly loss was attributed to a softer demand in China for this steelmaking component. Traders are bracing for more trade uncertainty. The Dalian Commodity Exchange's most traded September iron ore contract ended the daytime trading session 0.43% lower, at 702 Yuan ($97.65), a metric tonne. This represents a loss of 2.84% over the past week. As of 0704 GMT, the benchmark June iron ore traded on Singapore Exchange was $96.25 per ton down 0.66%. This week, the contract has fallen by 1.91%. The hot metal production, which is typically used as a gauge of iron ore demand to determine the market, has fallen for a third consecutive week. Data from Mysteel revealed that it was down 0.7% at 2.42 million tonnes on May 30. In a recent note, Galaxy Futures said that the seasonal demand for steel is at its peak and will continue to fall. Hexun Futures, a broker, says that iron ore prices remain somewhat stable as long as steel mills continue to make decent profits. A poll conducted on Friday showed that China's manufacturing activity probably contracted for the second consecutive month in May. This suggests that trade tensions between China and its major export markets weigh on manufacturers' minds. The tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump in the U.S. will remain in place after a federal appellate court temporarily reinstated the duties on Thursday. This reversed a decision made on Wednesday by a trade court to block the most comprehensive of the duties. Coking coal and coke, which are used to make steel, also fell, by 5.28% apiece and 2.13% respectively. The benchmark steel prices on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were flat. Hot-rolled coils fell 0.81% and rebars 0.34%, but wire rods rose 0.12%. Stainless steel gained nearly 0.6%. China's financial market will be closed Monday due to a public holiday. Trading will resume Tuesday, June 3rd. $1 = 7.1889 Chinese Yuan (Reporting and editing by Mrigank Dahniwala, Janane Venkatraman).
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After a village is destroyed by ice, floods threaten the Swiss valley
The water trapped behind a glacial debris mass that buried and blocked a village in southern Switzerland this week has led to warnings of the need for further evacuations due to the threat of flooding. The village of Blatten was engulfed by a deluge of millions cubic meters of rock, mud, and ice on Wednesday. The few houses left were later inundated. The village's 300 residents were evacuated in May when part of the mountain behind Birch Glacier started to crumble. The flooding increased on Thursday, as a mound of debris measuring almost 2 km (1,2 miles) wide clogged up the River Lonza. A lake formed among the wreckage. This caused fears that the morass might dislodge, leading to more evacuations. Local authorities warned residents of Gampel and Steg - villages located several kilometres along the Lonza Valley - to be prepared for an emergency evacuation. When conditions permit, the army will be ready with heavy equipment such as water pumps, diggers, and other heavy machinery to assist. Rescue teams are searching for a man aged 64 who has been missing since the landslide. Local authorities suspended their search for the man on Thursday, citing that the debris mounds are too unstable and warned of possible rockfalls. Scientists suspect that the event is a dramatic illustration of climate change's impact in the Alps. Residents are still struggling to comprehend the extent of destruction. (Reporting and editing by Lincoln Feast; Dave Graham).
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ASIA GOLD - Indian gold demand is lagging as prices increase, and wedding purchases are cooling
The physical gold demand in India this week was tepid, due to an increase in prices at home and the end of wedding season, which kept buyers away. Premiums in China, India's top consumer, were also down. This week, Indian dealers offered a discount Last week, the discount was up to $49, but this week it is down to up to $31 per ounce, including 6% import duties and 3% sales taxes. The wedding season has ended and the monsoon is here, so jewellers expect a seasonal drop in demand. This is why people are holding off on new purchases," said Mumbai-based bullion dealers with a private banking institution. On Friday, domestic gold prices traded at around 94.900 rupees for 10 grams after reaching a low of 90.890 rupees in the first month of this month. In China, bullion traded at a premium of $15 per ounce above the global benchmark spot rate, compared to premiums between $16 and $30 last week. Ross Norman, a independent analyst, said that the Shanghai Gold Exchange has seen its drawdowns reach the lowest levels of the year, while imports were exceptionally high in the past few weeks, suggesting that the Chinese domestic market is overstocked. Data from the Hong Kong Census and Statistics Department showed that China's total imports of gold via Hong Kong almost tripled in April compared to March, reaching their highest level for more than a month. Hugo Pascal is a precious metals dealer at InProved. He said that despite the lower volume of trading, gold bullish bets are still dominant on the SHFE. In Hong Kong, gold In Singapore, the price was $0.30 to $1.30 higher. Gold traded at par prices with a premium of $2.50. In Japan, bullion The premium was $0.50. (Reporting from Anmol Choubey and Rajendra Jadhav, in Bengaluru; additional reporting from Brijesh Patel; editing by Eileen Soreng).
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Base metals decline as dollar firms, US tariff optimism fades
The dollar strengthened on Friday, and the market's optimism faded after a court decision that reinstated some of the largest tariffs imposed in the United States by President Donald Trump. As of 0521 GMT, the London Metal Exchange reported that three-month copper was down by 0.1%, at $9,562.50 a metric ton. Red metal, which is used for power and construction, continues to gain 4.8% this month and looks set to have its best month since Sept. 2024. The Shanghai Futures Exchange's (SHFE) most-traded contract for copper fell 0.3%, to 77 740 yuan per ton ($10 813). LME aluminium dropped 0.2%, to $2.445 per ton. Zinc fell 0.7%, to $2.656.50. Lead fell 0.6%, to $1.952, and nickel fell by 0.2%, to $15.335. Tin fell 1.4% to $30.790. Metals traders in Singapore reported that "the market rose yesterday on the optimism that the appeals court would be able to block Trump's tariffs. However, the rally faded as the appeals courts suspended the verdict." On Thursday, an appeals court in the United States temporarily reinstated Trump's most comprehensive tariffs. A day earlier, the U.S. Trade Court had ruled that Trump exceeded his authority by imposing these duties and ordered a blockade. Investors digested court's decision to maintain Trump's tariffs. The dollar index increased by 0.2% against rival currencies, making assets denominated in dollars more expensive for holders of other currencies. Investors are waiting for the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation indicator, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index Report due later that day. This could give them more insight into their policy direction. SHFE aluminium fell 0.2% to 20110 yuan per ton. Lead dropped 0.8% at 16,630 yuan. Nickel rose 0.9% to 128,810 yuan. Zinc lost 0.5% to 22250 yuan. Tin fell 2.6% at 251,120.
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How Trump's Trade War is Upending the Global Economy
The tariffs imposed by Donald Trump since his inauguration on January 20, 2017 have sent shockwaves through financial markets, and uncertainty has spread throughout the global economy. This timeline shows the major events: Trump imposes tariffs of 25% on Mexican imports, 10% on Chinese goods and most Canadian imports from February 1. He demands that they reduce the flow of illegal immigrants and fentanyl into the United States. Trump agrees to a 30-day suspension of his tariff threat against Mexico and Canada in exchange for concessions made on border security and criminal enforcement. The U.S. doesn't reach a similar deal with China. Trump delays tariffs until the Commerce Department confirms that systems and procedures are in place for processing low-cost packages from China and collecting tariff revenue. Trump increases tariffs on aluminum and steel to 25%, "without any exceptions or exclusions". March 3 - Trump announces that 25% tariffs will be imposed on imports from Mexico and Canada from March 4, and that all Chinese imports will face a 20% tariff on fentanyl. After a phone call with General Motors, Ford and Stellantis' chairperson and CEOs, the president agreed to defer tariffs on certain vehicles manufactured in Canada and Mexico for a month. Trump exempts Canadian and Mexican goods under the North American Trade Pact from 25% tariffs for one month. Trump announces a 25% import tariff on cars and light trucks. Trump announces global duties with a base of 10% on all imports, and much higher duties for some of the U.S. biggest trading partners. Trump suspends most of the country-specific tariffs he had imposed less than 24 hours before, following a financial market upheaval that erased trillions from global bourses. The 10% blanket duty on nearly all U.S. imported goods remains in place. Trump has announced that he will increase the tariffs on Chinese imports from 104% to 125%, which was the level in effect the day before. The extra duties on Chinese products, including those related to fentanyl, will now be 145%. April 13: The U.S. government grants exemptions from steep tariffs for smartphones, computers, and other electronics imported from China. In an effort to impose tariffs in both sectors, the Trump administration launched national security investigations under Section 232 of Trade Act of 1962 on imports of pharmaceuticals and semiconductors. May 4, Trump imposes 100% tariffs on all films produced outside of the U.S. May 9 - Trump announces a limited bilateral agreement with British Prime Minister Keir starmer that keeps 10% tariffs in place on British exports and modestly increases agricultural access to both countries. It also lowers U.S. prohibitive duties on British auto exports. On May 12, the U.S. & China agreed to temporarily reduce reciprocal tariffs. The U.S. and China agree to temporarily reduce reciprocal tariffs. May 13: The U.S. reduces the "de minimis", or low-value tariff, on China shipments. Duties for items up to $800 are reduced to 54% instead of 120%. May 23 - Trump announces he will recommend a 50% tariff on all goods imported from the European Union, starting June 1. He warned Apple that it would be subject to a 25% tariff on phones sold in the U.S. if they were not manufactured within the U.S. Trump retracts his threat to impose 50% tariffs on EU imports, and agrees to extend the deadline of talks between the U.S. May 28 - The U.S. Trade Court blocked Trump's tariffs in an sweeping ruling, saying that the president had overstepped his powers by imposing duties across-the board on imports of U.S. trading partners. The Trump administration announced that it would appeal this ruling. May 29: A federal appeals Court temporarily reinstates Trump's most sweeping tariffs. It said it was pausing lower court's decision to consider the appeal of the government, and ordered plaintiffs to respond by the 5th June, and the administration to do so by the 9th June. (Compiled in Gdansk by Paolo Laudani, Mateusz Rabiega and Jamie Freed; edited by Milla Nissi Prussak and Lincoln Feast.
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The market is looking at another OPEC+ production hike as the oil price drops for a second consecutive week
The oil price was on course for a second weekly drop on Friday. This was due to expectations of a further OPEC+ production increase in July, and new uncertainty following the latest legal twist that kept President Donald Trump's Tariffs in place. Brent crude futures fell 31 cents or 0.48% to $63.84 per barrel at 0424 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude fell 31 cents or 0.51% to $60.63 per barrel. Brent's July futures contract expires on Friday. The two contracts have both fallen by 1.5% this week. Investors priced in a further increase by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC+), a group of eight members, at their meeting on Saturday. Robert Rennie, Westpac's director of commodity and carbon analysis, said in a recent note that the stage was set for a bumper increase to production. This could be higher than the 411,000-barrels-per day decision made at the two previous meetings. JPMorgan analysts said in a report that the potential price hike is due to the fact that global surpluses have widened from 2.2 million barrels a day to 2.2 millions. This likely means a price increase to stimulate a supply response and restore equilibrium. Prices are expected to stay within the current ranges, before moving into the high 50s by year's end. The U.S. tariffs will remain in place after a federal appellate court temporarily reinstated the tariffs on Thursday. This reversed a Wednesday decision by a trade court to block the most comprehensive of the duties. As traders assessed its impact, the block sent oil prices down more than 1%. Analysts predicted that uncertainty would continue as tariff wars progressed. Since Trump's "Liberation Day", April 2, announcement of tariffs, oil prices have fallen by more than 10%. The tariff war has fueled recession fears, which have clouded demand. Washington has added to the U.S. China trade tensions by ordering a wide range of companies to cease shipping goods to China, including butane and ethane, without a licence and revoking licenses granted to certain suppliers. Analysts at JPMorgan noted that global oil demand increased from the previous weeks, mainly due to a rebound in U.S. consumption of oil, as a result of the long Memorial Day weekend and the influx of travelers. They said that the global oil demand growth is currently at a rate of approximately 400,000 barrels per day (bpd) as of May 28. This is 250,000 bpd less than expected. Colleen Liu and Siyi Howe reported from Beijing, while Sonali Paul edited the article.
Sources say that Niger security forces raid Orano offices, seizing phones.
Two sources said that security forces in Niger searched offices of local subsidiaries of Orano, securing phones and equipment. This comes months after Orano announced that authorities had taken control of the Somair mine.
Ibrahim Courmo, the local director, was also arrested, according to a source close to Orano.
Orano stated that it has "very little" information about the situation, as it lost operational control over its subsidiaries in December.
The company released a statement late Tuesday that said: "It appears that Nigerien police officers intervened on Monday, May 5 at the headquarters in Niamey of the Somair Cominak and Orano Mining Niger subsidiary companies, seizing equipment."
We are concerned by the current situation as we have been unable to reach the Orano representative on the ground in Niger.
Orano announced on December 4, that the Niger military government, which took power in a coup 2023, has taken control of Somair, a mine of which Orano holds about 63%. The government owns the rest.
Over the last year, Niger, Mali and Burkina Faso, two neighbouring countries have increased pressure on foreign mining firms.
In recent months, Malian authorities arrested foreign executives and confiscated gold stocks during negotiations with mining firms. Burkina Faso’s junta promised last month to seize more industrial mines owned by foreigners.
Orano announced that Niger had revoked a mining license for its Imouraren division in June 2024. GoviEx Uranium, a Canadian company, announced that it was stripped of the right to develop an uranium mine in Niger.
The three Sahel nations are all led by military regimes that have been in power since 2020. They are trying to distance themselves from the former colonial power France, both economically and militarily. (Reporting and writing by Boureima Balima and Moussa Ashkar; editing by Stephen Coates).
(source: Reuters)