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Tin production may resume in Myanmar's Wa State after a three-week slump

On Thursday, tin futures prices dropped to their lowest level in over three weeks. Analysts attributed the drop to a renewed expectation that shipments from Myanmar's Wa State could resume.

The most active April contract at the Shanghai Futures Exchange ended daytime trading at 254,010 Yuan ($34.940) per metric ton after hitting the lowest price since February 5, at 253,220 Yuan per ton.

The metal used in semiconductors had increased by 9.5% since the start of the year, reaching a record high of 267.900 yuan per ton on 24 February, due to declining stocks and a tight supply. Uncertainty about the return of supply was also heightened by the risk that conflict in Myanmar would intensify.

On Wednesday, a notice circulated on Chinese social media purporting to come from the Wa State Industrial Minerals Management Bureau. It outlined the process for obtaining permits for mining and exploration.

Mines in Wa provide 70% of Myanmar's tin, which is the third largest producer on the planet and the dominant supplier to China.

The document's authenticity could not be independently verified.

The Wa militia of Myanmar did not respond when asked for a comment.

The notice stated that "that indicates that tin-ore production is expected to resume in Myanmar, which will greatly alleviate the tight supply," analysts from GF Futures wrote in a report.

First Futures analysts expect the tin ore to slowly increase by the end the second quarter. If the resumption of production goes smoothly, 10,000 tons will be added in 2025.

In August 2023, the militia affiliated with Myanmar's ethnic Wa minorities suspended all mining in areas they control to protect remaining mining resources.

Customs data revealed that China's imports from Myanmar of tin-ore more than halved in the past year.

Yunnan Tin shares, the world's largest refined tin manufacturer, dropped by 2.8%.

(source: Reuters)