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Goldman Sachs raises its first-half 2026 Aluminum Price Forecast and adjusts surplus Outlook

Goldman Sachs raised its London Metal Exchange aluminum price forecast for the first half of 2026 to $3,150 per tonne, up from $2,575. The investment bank cited a balanced global market that had supported investor confidence, without triggering an explosive production increase. Goldman Sachs also raised its forecast for the fourth quarter of 2026 to $2,500 from $2350, but kept its projection for 2027 at $2400. Goldman has revised its forecast for 2026 surplus from 1.1 million to 0.8 millions tonnes, but kept the 2027 surplus unchanged at 1.6million. It also raised its 2028 forecast to 2.3million, anticipating a higher supply of solar panels and reduced demand in China.

LME aluminium was trading at $3180 per tonne by 1517 GMT, after reaching a nearly three-year high Monday.

Metal is widely used for transport, construction and packaging, as well as electrical applications.

Goldman Sachs attributes the increase in forecasts to three key factors: low global aluminum inventories; doubts about power availability for new Indonesian smelters, and strong global demand growth, driven by electric vehicles and grid expansion.

The bank said that "we don't expect the price of aluminium to stay above $3,000" and that in 2026, they forecast a?acceleration of the growth in the supply of aluminum to coincide with the slowing down in the global demand growth.

Goldman stated that the slowing growth in automotive production and a contraction of solar module production will further impact demand. (Reporting from Anmol Choubey, Bengaluru. Editing by Paul Simao.)

(source: Reuters)