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MORNING BID AMERICAS - Flood the zone
By Anna Szymanski What Mike Dolan, the ROI team and I are looking forward to reading, watching and listening to this weekend. From the Editor Hello Morning Bid readers! The week began with a bang and it is yet to be seen if it will end on a whimper. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell revealed that the Justice Department threatened to indict him on Sunday, drawing widespread condemnation. In a wide-ranging, multifaceted interview with President Donald Trump on Wednesday, Trump stated that he did not plan to fire Powell and also hinted at a possible delay in intervening in Iran. Do investors have a chance to relax until next week? Most likely not. Monday in 2026 is still a very long time away. Trump has claimed he's in a "wait-and-see" mode with Iran, where 2,000 people were killed by a human rights organization. He also continues to threaten to buy Greenland. Just before Trump's meeting with Venezuelan leader Maria Corina Machado who recently won the Nobel Peace Prize, the United States seized a second Venezuelan-linked tanker. Washington's actions in Venezuela could be the start of a larger U.S. effort to realign Latin America in terms of geoeconomics, which would limit the ability of Russia or China to use Western Hemisphere commodity markets as a point of pressure. This week, geopolitical tensions in Venezuela and Iran as well as the Black Sea brought energy markets to the forefront. Brent crude prices spiked by 9% during the week ending Wednesday, reaching a three-month peak above $66 per barrel. However, they then plummeted below $64 after Trump's reversal on Iran. A large supply glut is still present, creating a dangerous environment for crude investors. Gold prices fell after reaching a new record high of $4642.72 per ounce on Tuesday. Gold may still have a number of tailwinds that will support price increases in this year despite this decline, including central bank appetite for gold and demand for safe-haven assets. This week, the Japanese yen was also volatile. The currency dropped on Wednesday, reaching a low of around 160 dollars per yen, an 18-month record. Since then, it has strengthened partly due to comments made by Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama regarding the possibility that the United States and Japan could work together to protect the currency. Is there more yen instability likely? It is likely, because Japan's economy has returned to normality after decades of turmoil. Investors may need some time to adjust to this new reality. The main dollar index, which is a measure of the currency's value, has been on the rise this week in spite of all the political turmoil domestically and internationally. The markets believe that while the Trump administration was able to roll back the near 50% increase in the dollar over the last?15-year period, the 7% decline expected by 2025 could be the end. The markets also received some additional information this week on U.S. Inflation, as the Consumer Price Index for December was released on Tuesday. The report revealed a slightly lower-than-expected increase in annual core prices. However, consumers and policymakers should not be cheered, as inflation could be higher than it appears. The major U.S. equity indices are expected to finish the week higher despite a tech-driven mid-week sell-off which was stopped by TSMC's blockbuster earnings report. Taiwan and Washington reached a deal Thursday to reduce tariffs on many Taiwanese exports. U.S. stock prices continue to shrug off Trump’s unorthodox policy, just as they did back in 2025, with the exceptions of the post "Liberation Day" ructions. But now that Trump has become the market activist, this might not last for very long. Check out Open Interest for more news on commodities and markets. Learn why talent is more important than territory in the future of AI, why the London Metals Exchange enjoyed a great resurgence since its crisis-induced years of 2022 and why uranium may rise this year. Check out the reading, listening, and watching suggestions from the ROI team as we enter the weekend. Please contact me at We're reading this weekend... ANDY HOME. ROI Metals columnist. Amanda van Dyke is the founder of Critical Mineral Hub. She offers a incisive view on why the U.S. government is so focused on Greenland. Rare earths are the topic, but not as you may think. RON BOUSSO is the ROI Energy columnist. Energy analyst Gerard Reid wrote a blog post that provoked thought about recent power outages. In the last year, Europe suffered from a series major blackouts which highlight the challenges that economies will face when undergoing the energy transition. Mike Dolan, ROI Finance & Markets columnist: In the IMF's Finance & Development Magazine, historian Johan Nordberg has written a powerful essay on his book Peak Human: What we can learn from the rise and fall of golden ages. He writes: "Leaders offer safety, greatness and a return of an imagined golden age by protecting and controlling. When the future seems uncertain, it is easy to fall into a familiar story. "Yet history tells us a different story." GAVIN MAGUIRE is a columnist for ROI Global Energy Transformation. Orennia, a software and intelligence company that specializes in energy, offers eight charts to define 2025. Listen to JAMIE MCGEEVER, ROI Markets columnist. In the latest Perkins vs. Beamish Podcast, "Powell vs Trump – It's War," TS-Lombard economists Dario Perkins, and Freya Beamish, dissect President Trump's sudden escalation of tensions with Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. We're keeping an eye on... MIKE DOLAN: In 2025, stocks, bonds, and commodities all survived multiple shocks. Will they continue to show resilience in the coming year? This episode of The Big View features Peter Thal Larsen, editor-in charge of Open Interest and Anna Szymanski who discuss inflation, AI, and the buy-the dip mindset. Sign up for the newsletter to receive Morning Bid every morning in your email. Subscribe to the Morning Bid newsletter Website You can find us on LinkedIn. The opinions expressed are solely those of their authors. These opinions do not represent the views of News. News is bound by the Trust Principles to maintain integrity, independence and a lack of bias. (By Anna Szymanski)
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Gold prices fall as US data and easing geopolitical tensions dampen momentum
Gold prices extended losses ?from the previous session on Friday, as stronger-than-expected U.S. economic data and ?easing ?geopolitical tensions in Iran hampered bullion's bullish momentum. By 1058 GMT, spot gold had fallen 0.3% to $4600.49 an ounce. The metal is expected to gain 2% on a weekly basis after reaching a record high of $4,642.72 Wednesday. U.S. Gold futures for delivery in February edged down 0.4% to $4,604.70. Carsten Menke, Julius Baer analyst, said: "There used to be a lot of momentum in the gold market. It seems that it has waned a bit at the moment ....the recent economic news flow out of the U.S. is creating more headwinds than tailwinds, and this can be seen reflected by a slightly stronger U.S. Dollar." The U.S. Dollar hovered at a six-week peak on?the back?of positive economic data released on Thursday, showing that initial jobless claims fell 9,000 to 198,000 seasonally adjusted last week. This was below the economists' expectations of 215,000. The greenback price of bullion is more expensive to overseas buyers due to the stronger dollar. Geopolitically, Iranians contacted by the media on Wednesday and Friday said that protests had abated since Monday. Gold is a safe-haven during periods of economic and geopolitical uncertainty. Gold demand in India was muted this week, as prices reached record highs, reducing the appeal of retail purchases. In China, bullion trades at a premium as demand remains steady ahead of the Lunar New Year. Spot silver fell 1.9% to $90.53 an ounce. However, it was on track for a weekly increase of more than 13% following its all-time high price of $93.57 the previous session. "The silver price seemed to be 'determined to reach $100 per ounce before slipping back down ....speculative traders are keeping an eye out for that level, even though it wouldn't be sustainable on a medium- to long-term basis," Menke said. Spot platinum fell 3.5% to 2,326.51 an ounce and was expected to rise more than 2.3% this week. Palladium fell 2.9% to $1.748.66 an ounce after reaching a record low more than a week earlier. It was heading for a loss of 3.6% on a weekly basis.
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The world shares are nearing record highs due to simmering geopolitics
On?Friday global stocks were near record highs as tensions between the United States and other countries simmered. The dollar also held at a six-week peak as traders reduced their bets about Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. Gold, a safe-haven, fell in price, and oil prices recovered from a previous decline after U.S. president?Donald??Trump took 'wait-and-see' attitude toward Iran. He had earlier threatened to intervene. Since the beginning of the year, the markets have been dominated by international politics following Trump's actions in Venezuela and his threats to seize Greenland. Michael Brown, Senior Research Strategist at Pepperstone said: "Although we seem to have dialled down the likelihood of U.S. Intervention in the Middle East, I don't believe we can completely rule it out." US PUBLIC HOLIDAY MARKET ACTIVITY Brown stated that market participants might lack 'conviction' ahead of Monday's Martin Luther King Jr. Day U.S. Holiday. He said: "I would not be confident if I were running a long-risk book or a short-crude one into a weekend of three days with the Middle East tensions going on." The pan-European Stoxx 600 Index was flat after a record high on Thursday. The CAC 40 in France was down 0.4%, lagging behind regional peers due to political uncertainty. French lawmakers were unable to reach an agreement on Friday, so the government postponed discussions about its budget for 2026. U.S. Stock Futures point to a strong start on Wall Street. A week of earnings will be capped off by State Street's results. Tech-heavy indices in Taiwan.TWII, South?Korea.KS11 and Asia.KS11 reached all-time highs as stellar results.from Taiwanese semiconductor maker TSMC 2330.TW revived AI trade. U.S.-Taiwan trade agreement signed on Thursday reduces tariffs for many semiconductor exports and directs investment towards U.S. tech industry. It could also anger China. Tony Sycamore is a market analyst for IG. He said, "I think with the TSMC's report yesterday sounding so positive, it provided a much needed shot in the arms for those AI stocks that have been struggling in recent months on Wall Street." TRADERS WATCH YEN INTERVENTION. The yen has grabbed the attention of currency traders after Japanese Finance minister Satsuki Katayama stated on Friday that Tokyo would not exclude any options for countering excessive volatility in foreign exchange, including coordinated interventions with the United States. Her comments slightly lifted the yen JPY=. After a report stating that Bank of Japan policymakers are considering raising interest rates earlier than expected, April is a possibility. The currency gained further. Last, the dollar was down 0.3% to 158 yen. Investors are betting that a snap Japanese election could be held as soon as next month. This would lead to a greater fiscal stimulus by Prime Minister Takaichi. Dollar hovered around a six-week peak after U.S. Economic releases this week, including data showing that the number of Americans who filed new unemployment benefits applications unexpectedly dropped last week. The dollar =USD was at 99.28 against a basket currencies. This is close to the peak of 99.493 on Thursday, its highest level since early December. FRX/ The markets have priced in 20% of a Fed rate reduction in March. This is down from 50% about a month earlier. Prices on the oil market rose as supply concerns remained prominent despite the decreasing likelihood of an American military strike against Iran. Brent crude and U.S. West Texas Intermediate traded at just over 1% more. Gold XAU= spot was down by 0.12% to $4,609 per ounce. GOL/ (Reporting from Sophie Kiderlin and Rae Wee, in London; editing by Dhara Ranesinghe)
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US lawmakers arrive at Copenhagen to counter Trump’s Greenland threat
Bipartisan U.S. legislators will meet with the leaders of Denmark, Greenland and Iceland on Friday to assure them of the support of Congress despite the threats of President Donald Trump to seize Arctic?island. Trump has said that Greenland's strategic location and its large mineral supply are vital to U.S. national security. He has also not ruled out using force to seize it. The European nations sent a small number of military personnel this week to the island on Denmark's request. According to Frederiksen’s office, the 11-member U.S. delegaion, led by Democratic senator Chris Coons was to meet Danish Premier Mette Frederiksen, and her Greenlandic equivalent Jens-Frederik Nielson. Coons stated in a recent press release that "in a time of growing?international instability we must draw closer to our friends, not push them away." Senator believes "SANER HEADS will prevail" Jeanne Shaheen of New Hampshire, a Democrat who sits on the U.S. Senate's Foreign Relations Committee said that recent rhetoric about taking over Greenland by the U.S. undermined NATO, and played right into the hands of Russia and China, its two main enemies. "I am aware that there are deep, real concerns in Denmark and Greenland. When trust is shaken, these concerns are understandable. "But I think saner heads will prevail," she said, in remarks made ahead of her speech in Copenhagen. "I believe this because I see institutions already acting." Both sides of the aisle are united in their support for NATO, and the U.S./Danish relationship. The delegation is made up largely of Democratic legislators, but includes Republican Senators Thom Tillis (left) and Lisa Murkowski (right). The Greenlandic flag flew at the main staircase in the Danish Parliament building, Christiansborg, central Copenhagen, to mark the occasion. COPENHAGEN SEEK AFTER WHITE HOUSES MEETING The visit to Congress follows a high-stakes White House meeting on Wednesday where Danish Foreign minister Lars Lokke Rasmussen, and Greenlandic foreign minister Vivian Motzfeldt were able to meet Secretary of State Marco Rubio as well as Vice President JDVance. After the meeting, Danish officials stated that they had not been able to influence the U.S. government's position regarding Greenland. Rasmussen, Motzfeldt and other Danish and Greenlandic officials met with U.S. legislators in Washington to garner congressional support as Denmark and Greenland sought to resolve an unprecedented diplomatic crisis. Rasmussen, in an Instagram post late Thursday night, said that "(we are) prepared for cooperation in security in the Arctic. But it must?happen in respect of our territorial integrity and international law as well as the UN Charter." Trump floated the idea to acquire Greenland during his first term in 2019. However, he faces opposition from Washington, including within his own party. BIPARTISAN OPPOSITION GREENLAND SECURITY Both Trump's Republican Party and the opposition Democrats said they would support legislation to limit Trump's power to seize Greenland. This is despite an ongoing battle over war powers that Congress has under the Constitution. Also, a House bill supporting the annexation of Greenland was introduced. A /Ipsos survey found that only 17% of Americans approved of President Donald Trump’s efforts to acquire Greenland. And large majorities of Democrats, Republicans, and Independents oppose the use of military force to annexe the island. Trump has called this poll "fake".
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Bild reports that Germany will offer up to $7,000 in electric vehicle subsidies.
The German government will provide subsidies up to $7,000 for families with low and medium incomes to purchase new electric vehicles, according to a report in the 'Bild' newspaper on Friday. Berlin is hoping to boost sluggish sales within one of its key industries. German automakers are struggling to transition to electric cars, as demand is lower than expected. Bild, citing the Environment Ministry, reported that the government plans to provide new subsidies between 1,500 euros and 6,000 euro ($1,700-$7,000). Bild did not mention any requirements for local production to qualify for the subsidy. The report said that applications can be submitted retroactively from January 1 for new registrations. It also added that the website for application submissions is expected to launch in May. Bild cites Environment Minister Carsten Schneider as saying: "The funds will be enough to purchase 800,000 cars over the next 3-4 years." The Environment Ministry refused to comment on the "Bild Report". Schneider was scheduled to hold a press briefing on Friday morning in order to explain the details of his plans. The announcement was postponed by his ministry until Monday without any explanation. According to official statistics, Volkswagen's name-brand, Czech brand Skoda, and Spain's Seat accounted for the majority of battery-electric passenger vehicle sales in Germany last year. The German Chancellor Friedrich Merz's coalition government in principle approved the new subsidies last year, and has set aside a total of 3 billion euros for EV subsidies between 2026 and 2029. According to the VDA, the auto industry association that has 'called for a timely release of subsidies,' these measures should boost EV -registrations by 17% this year, compared to last year, to almost one million. Ferdinand Dudenhoeffer (head of the CAR Research Institute) was asked about the subsidy program. He pointed out that data showed the market share for electric cars has been steadily growing, due mainly to the more attractive prices. Dudenhoeffer stated that subsidies are not economically logical and place a strain on the budget. Holger Hansen reported, Rachel More contributed additional reporting, Thomas Seythal wrote, and Jane Merriman edited.
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EUROPE GAS - Prices rise on colder weather and weaker winds
Dutch and British wholesale gasoline prices rose Friday morning due to colder weather forecasts, and a weaker wind output. The benchmark 'Dutch front month contract at TTF hub increased by 1.16 euros to 34.97 Euros per Megawatt Hour (MWh) as of 0925 GMST, according to LSEG data. LSEG data shows that the contract reached a high intraday of 35.17 during earlier trading, its highest level since August 1, last year. The Dutch March price was 0.69 euros higher, at 33.42 Euros/MWh. The UK price for February was 3.67 pence more expensive? at 91.17 pennies per therm. This week, prices have risen due to colder weather forecasts and falling?storage levels. There are also concerns about the supply of liquefied gas (LNG). The temperatures are expected to drop in North-West Europe until the end the month. Wind power production is expected to be lower, increasing the demand for gas. Gas Infrastructure Europe's data shows that European gas storage levels are at 52%, as opposed to a five-year median of 67%. The cold snap, as well as lower LNG supplies, have led to higher withdrawals than normal. Prices have also been driven higher by the purchases of investment funds with short positions. Analysts at ING warned that the market could see a rally to cover short positions, due to the large short position funds had in TTF during the winter. The investment funds' net shortfall in TTF has already been reduced from 92.76?terawatt-hours (TWh), in mid-December, to 55.14?TWh at present. LSEG data show that the day-ahead Dutch contract closed Thursday above the 200-day'moving average' for the first since last?winter. This indicates a bullish trend in this week. Dzmitry Dzmitry, LSEG's gas analyst, says that the Relative Strength Index is at 72 and the Average Directional Index near 20. This indicates a moderate trend, as well as the possibility of a price correction on a short term basis. The benchmark contract on the European carbon markets was 0.82 euros higher, at 93.06 euro per metric ton. Nina Chestney reports.
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Energy Minister: Ukraine has enough fuel to last more than 20 days.
Denys Schmyhal, Ukraine's Energy Minister, told the parliamentary on Friday that the country has enough fuel to last more than 20 days. He described the 'energy situation' in the nation as very challenging following a number of Russian missile and drone attacks on the power infrastructure. Shmyhal who was appointed earlier this week said that the worst situation is still in Kyiv's capital, in the regions of Dnipropetrovsk and Kharkiv, as well as in towns close to the frontline where thousands have been living without heat and electricity for days in temperatures below zero. Winter preparations have failed in some cities and regions. "I've noticed that many things have stalled in the last two days of my office," he said. "There's not a single nuclear power plant in Ukraine left that the enemy hasn't attacked." Volodymyr Zelenskiy, the president of Ukraine, announced on Wednesday that he will declare a?state of emergency in energy to make up for lost time and deal with issues relating to disrupted electricity supplies after sustained?Russian attack. Shmyhal who served previously as a prime minister and a defence minister ordered the importation of emergency electricity. He stated that Ukraine must install between 2.2 and 2.7 GW by 2026 in order to meet its electricity consumption. (Reporting and editing by Daniel Flynn; Aleksandar Vasovic)
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Gold prices fall as US data and easing geopolitical tensions dampen momentum
Gold prices ticked lower on ?Friday, extending losses from the previous session, as stronger-than-expected U.S. economic data ?and ?easing geopolitical tensions in Iran hampered bullion's bullish momentum. Gold spot prices fell 0.3% at $4,603,02 per ounce as of 0918 GMT. The metal is expected to gain 2% in a week after reaching a record high of $4,642.72 Wednesday. U.S. Gold futures for delivery in February edged down 0.4% to $4,606.70. Carsten Menke, Julius Baer analyst, said: "There used to be a lot of momentum in the gold market. It seems that it has waned a bit at the moment ....the recent economic news flow out of the U.S. is creating more headwinds than tailwinds, and this can be seen?in the slightly stronger U.S. Dollar." The U.S. Dollar hovered at a six-week peak on Thursday, boosted by positive economic data showing that initial jobless claims fell 9,000 to 198,000 seasonally adjusted last week. This was below the economists' expectations of 215,000. The greenback price of bullion is more expensive to overseas buyers due to the stronger dollar. Geopolitically, Iranians contacted by the media on Wednesday and Friday said that protests had abated since Monday. Gold is a safe-haven during periods of economic and geopolitical uncertainty. Gold demand in India was muted this week, as prices reached record highs, reducing the appeal of retail purchases. In China, bullion trades at a premium as demand remains steady ahead of the Lunar New Year. Spot silver fell 1.1%, to $91.33 an ounce. However, it was on track for a weekly increase of more than 14%. It had hit a record high of $93.57 the previous session. "The silver price seemed to be 'determined to reach $100 per ounce before moving down again ....speculative traders are keeping an eye out on that level, even though it wouldn't be sustainable over the medium- to long-term," Menke added. Spot platinum fell 2.7% to $2345.78 an ounce and was expected to gain over 3.1% this week. Palladium fell 2.6%, to $1,755.04 an ounce. It had hit a low of more than a week earlier. The metal was heading for a loss of around 3.3% per week.
Copper falls to a one-week low due to concerns about China's demand and a stronger dollar
Copper prices dropped?on Friday, hitting their lowest level in a week. They were weighed down by rising concerns about demand in China's top consumer following?downbeat statistics and the absence rate cuts.
The Shanghai Futures Exchange's most traded copper contract closed the daytime trading session 2.26% lower, at 100,770 Yuan ($14.461.20) per ton. This is its lowest level since January 9. Benchmark three-month Copper on the London Metal Exchange fell 1.68% by 0723 GMT to $12,885.50 per ton, its lowest level since January 9.
The dollar's strength contributed to a 0.6% decline in both benchmarks, which had gained ground earlier in the week. The rally in copper prices last year continued into the first week of the 2026. This was fueled by mine disruptions and concerns about supply shortages.
China's weaker data on loan? and its plans to reduce sector-specific rates of interest, rather than the benchmark policy rate, have weighed down sentiment and pushed prices lower. China's new bank loans for 2025 have fallen to their lowest level in seven years, reflecting the weak borrowing requirements amid a prolonged real estate downturn. The central bank of China announced on Thursday that it would be reducing sector-specific interest rate to "provide an early boost" to the economy. However, such a move has a limited effect on growth. A poll revealed that China's economy is likely to slow down to 4.5% by 2026, and then maintain its pace through 2027.
Other SHFE metals include aluminium, which fell by 2.21%; nickel, which dropped by 3.99%; lead, which fell 0.46%; and zinc, down 1.2%. Shanghai tin fell by over 6% after the Shanghai Stock Exchange took steps to curb a price surge by increasing trading prices and margins and by limiting the number of open positions within a day.
Aluminium, nickel, lead, and zinc all fell in price. Tin also dropped by 2.03%.
(source: Reuters)