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How long can Wall Street ignore Trump's "visible hand"? McGeever
If the record high U.S. stocks prices accurately reflect the investors' assessment of Trump 2.0's first year, it is a glowing scorecard of the most interventionist administration in decades. The U.S. President, who has become the market activist in chief, is yet another example of a topsy-turvy world of economics. Global norms and orthodoxies from the past 40 years are now being questioned. Donald Trump has directed the U.S. Government to take direct equity stakes in businesses, to call for CEO firings, to try to dictate compensation to CEOs, to ensure that the government receives a cut from Big Tech chip sales, and to seek to fire Federal Reserve officials. Trump also ordered the purchase $200 billion in mortgage-backed securities. He directed U.S. Oil companies to conduct activities in Venezuela. He tried to stop defense firms from purchasing back shares until they increased production. And he called for an annual cap on credit card interest rates, as his Justice Department threatened to indict Fed chair Jerome Powell. That's only a few of the things that have happened in the last week. INEFFICIENT MARKET HYPOTHESIS? Imagine an alternate future in which Kamala Harris wins the 2024 U.S. Presidential election, and is now entering her first year of office after pursuing a?similarly unorthodox clutch of controversial policies. Would the markets shrug this off? We'll never know. But it is reasonable to assume there would have been a noticeable pushback by investors. In reality, aside from the short turmoil that followed Trump's "Liberation Day Tariff" announcement in April, the world has been relatively calm. Last year was indeed a record-breaking year for stocks, and other asset classes. According to HFR, hedge funds, which are not fans of government interference in the "free market" and private sector, saw their assets under management reach $5 trillion. William Henagan is a research fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. He agrees that it's a bit of a "conundrum", given the Trump administration's high-interventionist approach towards Wall Street and Main Street. Henagan explains that investors don't necessarily perceive the market interventions to be a substantial erosion of the rule of law, and the property rights which underpin the financial markets and economic system. Perhaps public markets aren't the most efficient or all-seeing. Investors ignore erosion of these fundamentals at their peril. CASE FOR DEFENSE The question of market confidence can be binary. Investors are confident in the market structure and financial system, until they lose it. Government intervention in the market economy is not a new thing, and it is also not a bad idea. Many sectors are in favor of it and it is sometimes necessary to ensure national security, energy safety, or a social safety network. A year into Trump's second tenure, "many parts" of USA Inc are feeling the "visible hand", shoving aside Adam Smith's invisible hand, which was based on the theory of free markets. Trump's capriciousness is still able to cause volatility in certain sectors and stocks. Lockheed Martin shares fell?7% on Wednesday night after Trump announced he would stop defense firms from paying dividends or buying back stock. They then recovered 8% after hours trading when Trump demanded that the defense budget be increased by 50% to $1.5 trillion. The broader market is continuing to grow on the backs of short-term optimism and momentum. This seems unaffected even by the most aggressive administration in recent decades. Wall Street did lag behind its global counterparts last year, but not by much. This could be a sign of Trump's visible influence on investors. But, at least for the moment, there is no flashing warning light. You like this column? Open Interest (ROI) is your indispensable source of global financial commentary. ROI provides data-driven, thought-provoking analysis on everything from soybeans to swap rates. The markets are changing faster than ever. ROI can help you keep up. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, X.
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Italy improves relations with Venezuela after two more Italians are released
Italy announced on Monday that Venezuela had released Italian citizens Alberto Trentini?and Mario Burlo?from prison. It also pledged to "upgrade its relations with Caracas" in response. After Venezuela released two Italian citizens, Biagio Piieri, a journalist, and Luigi Gasperin a businessman, last week, Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani confirmed that no other citizens with only Italian nationality were still in prison. Hundreds of dual nationals, both Italian and Venezuelans, are still being held. Venezuelan leadership announced on January 8, that it would release a large number of prisoners including foreigners, as a gesture. After the U.S. captured Venezuela's president, Nicolas Maduro, and attacked Venezuela, the U.S. made this move to heed demands from human right groups, international organizations, and opposition figures. Trentini was the best-known Italian prisoner in Venezuela. He is a charity worker originally from Venice. Rafael Machado, his Venezuelan driver, was also arrested. He worked for Humanity & Inclusion - an NGO which assists disabled?people. Burlo was arrested in November of 2024, and was held in the El Rodeo I facility, in Caracas, in the same jail as Trentini. Giorgia Mello, the Prime Minister of Italy, said that a plane from Rome was en route to take Trentini and Burlo back home. Meloni made a statement saying, "I am delighted and satisfied with the release of Alberto Trentini & Mario Burlo who are safely in the Italian Embassy at Caracas." DIPLOMATIC RELATIONS UPGRADED Tajani said to reporters in Rome that Venezuela has not provided any reasons as to why the two have been held for so long. He said that the most important thing is that "they are going home". They were expected to arrive on Monday morning or early Tuesday morning. Tajani stated that there were still 42 Venezuelans with dual Italian and Venezuelan citizenship. Of these, 24 are being held for "political reasons". Meloni praised Venezuelan authorities, including Delcy Rodrguez, the interim president, for "the constructive cooperation shown in recent days." Tajani stated that Rome would upgrade its relations with Venezuela by changing the status of their top envoy, from charge d’affaires to a full-fledged Ambassador. He called Venezuela a "very significant country" for Italy. He noted the large Italian community in Venezuela and Eni, an Italian energy company that is present there.
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Dollar drops, gold reaches record high as US prosecutors pursue Powell
Gold reached a new record high on Monday and the dollar as well as Wall Street futures both fell. A criminal investigation into Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell has stoked fears about the independence and power of the world's largest central bank. Powell Slammed The move was part of President Donald Trump's push to gain greater control over the Fed. For traders, it added to the frenetic start 2026 has seen, with the U.S. already capturing Venezuela's Nicolas Maduro Set your sights on Greenland . S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq were both down by more than 0.6% before the U.S. open. The VIX "fear gauge" was at its highest level since November, and gold, which investors use as a hedge to protect themselves from both inflation and turmoil, hit $4,600 per ounce. Bond markets have also priced a slight increase in the likelihood of a short-term U.S. rate cut. The STOXX 600 index in Europe remained close to its record highs, as new peaks were set by the arms market and the Swiss Franc, another safe-haven currency. Also the euro and sterling strengthened on the FX markets. Lee Hardman, MUFG's Lee Hardman, said that the latest development marked a significant escalation of the fight between President Trump & Fed Chair Powell. He added that "the repeated assaults on the Fed's independent" continue to pose downside risk for the dollar. Fed funds futures added about three basis point more in cuts in this year. This is small, but points out the risk of the Fed being pushed to be more aggressive. Silver's 5% increase was also accompanied by gold's 1.5% rise. The rising geopolitical tensions surrounding Iran also boosted the market. Oil prices fell as commodity traders did not show any immediate panic. This was especially true with the possibility of Venezuelan crude entering the market. Trump said that he is weighing up a variety of options, including military ones, in response to the violent crackdown of Iranian protests, which are one of the most significant challenges to the country's ruling clerics since the 1979 Islamic Revolution. Abbas Araqchi, Iran's foreign minister, said in an English translation on Monday that the situation is "under control". Brent crude futures fell around 50 cents to just below $63 per barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude crude, however, was down 45 cents at $58.60. The clerical establishment in Iran intensified its crackdown against the protests, and both benchmarks increased by more than 3%. Saul Kavonic is the head of MST Marquee's energy research. He said that while oil prices have increased in recent days, they are still underestimating risk, given the possibility of a wider conflict affecting the Strait of Hormuz. He added that "the market is asking for disruptions in supply before it responds materially." TRUMP VS POWELL Bank shares were the main cause of the drop in Wall Street Futures. Trump also put the Fed in the crosshairs by calling late Friday for an One-year cap On January 20, interest rates on credit cards will be 10%. Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase, and Bank of America dropped between 2.5% to 4% during premarket trading. American Express lost nearly 5% while consumer finance companies Synchrony and Capital One fell over 10%. For traders, the second week of 2018 will be dominated by U.S. inflation figures, Chinese trade data and a number of U.S. earnings, starting with JPMorgan on Tuesday. Fed chief Powell responded to Trump's threat to indict by saying it was a "pretext". This was to pressure the central bank into cutting interest rates. Powell's term as chair ends in May. In a statement, Powell said that "this unprecedented action must be seen within the context of the Administration's threats and continued pressure." Economists say the latest developments represent a dramatic escalation of the fight between Powell, who was appointed chair by Trump in 2018, and Powell. Andrew Lilley is the chief rates strategist for Barrenjoey Investment Bank, a Sydney-based investment bank. Investors will not be pleased, but this shows that Trump has no other levers at his disposal. The majority of FOMC will keep the cash rate at what they want it to be. Even against currencies that are typically considered risky, such as the Australian and New Zealand dollar, the dollar's reaction was the most dramatic. The dollar index fell 0.4% in Europe, and is on course for its largest one-day decline since mid-December. The greenback suffered a terrible 2025. It dropped more than 9% compared to major peers as interest rates differentials shrank as the Fed lowered rates, and concerns about U.S. budget deficits and political unrest swirled. Ray Attrill, head of currency strategy at National Australia Bank, said: "This open war between the Fed and U.S. Administration... is clearly not good for the U.S. Dollar."
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QXO secured additional $1.8 billion financing led by Apollo and Temasek
QXO announced on Monday that it had secured $1.8 billion in additional financing from Apollo Global Management, Temasek, and other investors. The firm of?billionaire Brad Jacobs? is targeting acquisitions in the consolidating U.S. Building-Products Industry. After the building products supplier, QXO has committed to a new investment of $3 billion. Raised $1.2 billion Last week. QXO has said that it will structure the funding in a previously-disclosed series of convertible perpetual preferred stock, and use the proceeds for future acquisitions. M&A activity in the U.S. construction products industry has increased, as firms have sought to scale up and 'localize supply chains' to offset tariffs. This is supported by new housing, renovation and repair, and nonresidential building activities. Other companies in the industry have also made large deals. Commercial Metals announced last year that it would purchase concrete supplier Foley Products, for $1.84 Billion, while roofing material firm TopBuild acquired rival SPI, for $1 Billion in cash. QXO made a hostile bid of $5 billion for GMS last year, but ultimately Home Depot won the deal. However, the company closed its $11 Billion deal for Beacon Roofing Supply back in April. Jacobs has built multi-billion dollar companies in waste management, logistics and equipment rentals. QXO is now positioned to pursue deals in this 'fragmented' sector. The company aims for $50 billion in revenues annually within the next decade. The shares of Greenwich, Connecticut based company rose about 1% during premarket trading. (Reporting from AnshumanTripathy in Bengaluru, Editing by TasimZahid)
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Gold reaches record $4,600 after Trump-Powell fight shakes investors
On Monday, gold reached a record-high of $4,600, and?silver set a new high, as the?criminal investigation?by Trump's administration into Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell sent back investors into the asset seen as a haven. Gold spot jumped by 1.7%, to $4,584.12 an ounce, at 1159 GMT. It had earlier reached a record-high of $4,600.33. U.S. Gold Futures for February Delivery gained 2.1% to $4,595. Zain Vawda is an analyst at MarketPulse, by OANDA. He said: "With the Fed’s independence openly contested now, the ‘political risk’ discount normally reserved for emerging markets has bled into the U.S. Dollar, driving investors towards hard assets." The dollar dropped the most since three weeks and Wall Street futures fell as tensions between the Fed and Trump administration increased. Powell claimed that the Trump administration used the threat of indictment against him for testimony he gave to Congress last summer as a "pretext", to gain greater influence over the interest rates. The U.S. president wants to drastically reduce the rate. Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and other brokers expect to see two rate cuts of 25 basis points each in September and June. Trump also said that he was weighing up a variety of strong'responses, including military options for a crackdown against Iranian protests. Iran's unrest is a result of Trump's international flexing of U.S. muscle. He has ousted Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and discussed acquiring Greenland. Gold and other non-yielding investments tend to perform well when interest rates are low or there is geopolitical uncertainty. Spot silver increased 4.8% to $83.78 an ounce, after reaching a record high of $84.60 earlier in the day. "Silver is on a path to $90 per ounce, and possibly $100 if industrial pressure tightens. Vawda stated that the fact that gold-to-silver is decreasing suggests silver will have more room for growth in percentage terms. After reaching a record-high of $2,478.50 per ounce on December 29, spot platinum rose 3.5% to $2352.90. Palladium rose 2.5% to $1.860.43 an ounce.
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Orsted to be heard by US judge in Trump offshore wind challenge
A U.S. court will on Monday consider the request of Danish?energy firm Orsted to obtain an injunction to stop?the Trump Administration's decision?to halt its $5 billion Revolution Wind project near Rhode Island. The lawsuit was filed on behalf of the company by several offshore wind companies, as well as states. They are seeking to reverse the Interior Department's suspension of five 'offshore wind leases' that it had imposed in December over what they called national security concerns. Under U.S. president Donald Trump's?view that wind turbines are ugly, expensive, and inefficient, offshore wind developers have seen their multi-billion dollar plans repeatedly disrupted. Orsted said that the project was about 87% completed and it is expected to start generating electricity this year. Revolution Wind LLC is 50/50 a joint venture between Global Infrastructure Partners and Skyborn Renewables. Orsted also filed a lawsuit?on behalf?of its Sunrise Wind project?off the coast of New York. The hearing on Monday is the first in a series of preliminary injunction hearings to be held this week. These hearings are part of lawsuits filed against offshore wind projects. Other cases include Equinor Empire Wind off the coasts of New York and Dominion Coastal Virginia Offshore Wind. (Reporting and editing by Edmund Klamann; Nichola Groom)
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Politico reports that Germany has finalized a deal to purchase TenneT shares.
The German government reached a final deal on acquiring a stake in the German division of Dutch grid operator TenneT Politico, a news outlet, reported that the'shift to renewable energy' was part of a larger?shift. Politico cited government budget documents to claim that funding of 7.6 billion euro ($8.9billion) had been allocated for the deal. The total amount includes 5,76 billion euros for the purchase of TenneT shares as well as a capital increase that will fund grid upgrades. The remainder is to be given to the German state development Bank KfW which is managing this transaction in the form of guarantees. TenneT and Germany's finance ministry did not respond immediately to requests for comment. Berlin announced in November that it was looking at acquiring a 25,1% stake in TenneT Germany, the largest high-voltage power grid operator in the country, in order to fund the investments required for the energy transformation. Berlin holds minority stakes in TransnetBW, 50Hertz and two other high-voltage grid companies. German authorities had set aside 5.8 billion euro for both the purchase and?further payment obligations. The Dutch government (parent of TenneT) announced in September that it would sell a 46% stake in the German unit to an investor consortium. This follows a failed sale to Berlin last year. TenneT, a major player in Europe's transition to renewable energy, operates critical infrastructure to connect renewables to consumers and industries.
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Malaysia's Petronas wants court clarification on Sarawak operations
Petroliam Nasional Berhad, Malaysia's national energy company On 'Monday, it filed a motion with the top court of the country to clarify the legal and regulatory framework governing its operations in Sarawak. The filing comes after negotiations between Petronas, a Sarawak-based energy company, and Petros about gas distribution in the State stalled. The talks have been in a deadlock since 2024 due to competing regulatory claims. Petronas stated in a press release that it was requesting a Federal Court determination on the legal position?applicable for its Sarawak operations so as to ensure compliance with relevant laws?and governance framework. The statement said that while there had been progress on many commercial agreements and partnerships, the differences between the parties "had led to uncertainty regarding the obligations applicable to Petronas". Petronas said that the filing, which named the Sarawak and federal governments as respondents, did not intend to undermine the state's aspirations for development or the role of Petros within its energy sector. Petros, the Prime Minister's Office and the Attorney-General did not immediately respond to requests about the filing. Sarawak's chief Minister's Office declined to comment. Sarawak on Borneo Island has been seeking greater control over its natural resources for a long time and appointed Petros in 2024 to purchase, distribute, and supply all natural gas produced by the state to downstream buyers. The Petronas impasse has raised concerns over potential revenue losses. This national energy company is a major income source for Malaysia's federal Government. Sarawak has more than 60% Malaysia's natural gas reserves. Reporting by Sherin sunny in Bengaluru; Danial Azhar, Ashley Tang and Rozanna latiff in Kuala Lumpur. Writing and editing by Tasimzahid and Louis Heavens.
Copper reaches records in China, optimism and data centres boom
Prices of copper rose to record levels on Monday, mainly due to optimism over robust demand from China, the world's largest consumer.
Benchmark 'copper' on the London Metal Exchange rose 1.6% to $13,205 per metric tonne by 1024 GMT, up from $13,243.5 earlier. The metal used in cable conductors reached a record high of $13,387.50 last week, a rise of over 50% from the beginning?of the year.
China's plans for a nuclear power plant in
Roll out
A package of fiscal policy to?boost the demand and ensure that the economy gets off on a good footing this year has been a positive for industrial metals.
The global copper market is also changing as a result of the increasing use of?electric cars, the building out of
data centres
Upgrades and improvements
Power expansions
Grids are used in all parts of the world.
In a recent note, analysts at ING stated that "Copper -remains- central to grid expansion, renewables and EV Infrastructure".
Data centres and AI infrastructure are becoming major consumers for metals like copper and aluminum.
Copper prices will remain high as long as there is a fear of shortages in the future due to a lack of new supply.
"Limited new project approvals combined with elevated disruptions/production downgrades has resulted in very low levels of mine production growth ?in 2025 and we forecast limited growth in 2026," analysts at UBS said.
The overall demand for industrial metals was boosted by the softer U.S. dollar. When it falls, holders of other currencies can buy metals at a lower price.
Aluminium rose by 0.9% to $3.165 per?ton. Zinc added 0.7% at $3.176. Lead firmed up 0.1% at $2.052. Nickel climbed 2.2% at $18,090. Tin jumped 5.3% from $47,975 to $48,090.
The price of tin used in semiconductors had previously reached $48,500, which is still within reach of its all-time record high of $51,000, set in March 2022.
The latest spike in tin prices was attributed by traders to market talk about a clampdown on illegal mining of tin in Indonesia.
(source: Reuters)