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Boliden CEO: EU's rare-earths push is 10 year late, and more needs to done
Boliden, the Swedish miner, said that the European Union had acted on rare earths ten years ago. Boliden was commenting on the European Commission plan to invest 3 billion euro ($3.5 billion) in 25 key mineral projects. China, the country that produces 90% of all rare earths in processed form, has recently increased export restrictions. Boliden CEO Mikael staffas said that Europe's inability to produce critical raw materials on its own is a vulnerability which must be addressed despite the long process of making major changes. He said the latest EU initiative was a sign the bloc of 27 countries wanted to act, but that much more work needed to be accomplished. Staffas stated that "the Critical Raw Materials Act we received a few years ago was... a very small step. I believe that EU will have to take many more small steps in order to achieve more independence." Aurubis CEO Toralf Haag stated on Thursday that the European copper industry's biggest producer has not yet seen any positive effects from the act. However, he expects the act to have a positive impact on the sector in the long-term. NO BOLIDEN PROJECTS UNDER EU'S NEW PLAN Boliden produces minerals like nickel and copper that are listed as key resources by the EU. It does not see much benefit in the new initiative which is mainly focused on rare earths and ignores other vital raw materials. Staffas added that the grants were also small. He said that even if the EU commission had allocated us 3 billion euros, it would only last two years for our regular investments. Boliden had forecast 15 billion Swedish crowns (about $1.6 billion) in capital expenditures for 2026. Boliden’s project relating to its Somincor Mine extension in Portugal appears on the list of initiatives introduced under the Critical Raw Materials Act but none fits into the latest Rare Earths push.
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As investors get ready for a Fed rate cut, stocks rise and the dollar weakens.
Investors are confident that the Federal Reserve will cut rates next week despite a crucial reading of U.S. Inflation. This weighed down on the dollar, and helped gold. The European stock market opened higher on Monday, boosted by mining stocks after copper prices reached record highs. STOXX 600 was up 0.3% at mid-morning, after gaining 0.7% in the past week. U.S. Stock Futures are up between 0.2% and 0.4%. This indicates a modest Wall Street rally later. The government bonds that have been the focus of much of the market activity this week traded steadily in advance of U.S. monthly core inflation data. BONDS IN FOCUS This week, Japanese government bonds led the global debt sale. The yields on JGBs of 10 years have reached their highest levels. Highest point since mid-2007 The 30-year yields are at record highs after the Bank of Japan's strongest signal to date this week, that rates will likely rise in this month. Jim Reid, strategist at Deutsche Bank, said that if they proceeded, it would bring the policy rate to 0.75%. This is the highest level since 1995. The yen strengthened 0.18% against the U.S. Dollar this morning, while the Nikkei fell 1.29%. The dollar last fell 0.1% in the day to 154.91 yen. This is down from last week's 10-month peak of 157.9. The dollar index was down 0.1% to 99, and down 0.5% for the week. The dollar index fell 0.1%, to 99. It was also down 0.5% on the week. Investors are buying the Japanese currency against the US dollar, as both countries' interest rates have been moving in the same direction. Carry trades are common where traders borrow yen and then sell it to buy higher-yielding dollars assets like tech stocks or cryptocurrency. Carry trades are at risk if the yen strengthens. "ONE AND DONE?" What's going be interesting about the BOJ meeting: Is it a one-and-done? Fiona Cincotta, City Index's strategist, said that both the Fed and the BOJ will be focusing on this issue. "It feels like there are two major risks events, even though it's December and the world should be slowing down." The expectation that the Fed would cut interest rates by one quarter point on Wednesday, and at least two more in 2026, has led to the weakness of the U.S. dollar. The markets have priced in a Fed rate reduction at 90%. However, this could be the most controversial decision the central bank has made for years because up to five of its 12 voting members publicly stated that they do not want rates reduced further. The September Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index - the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge - is next. It is expected to show an increase of 0.2% in the core measure. This will leave the annual rate at 2.9%. The data on Thursday revealed Jobless Claims The number of people employed fell by 6,000 last week. This may have been due to the Thanksgiving Holiday. Treasury yields remained stable on Friday, after rising the day before. The yields on two-year Treasury bonds fell by 1 basis point, to 3.527% after rising overnight by 5 basis points, while the yields on 10-year Treasury bonds remained virtually unchanged, at 4.11%. COPER SURGES Citi's price forecast was upgraded based on concerns about supply and the expectation of a Fed rate reduction. Brent crude futures are expected to finish the week at $63.2 per barrel, down about 0.1% from the previous day. Gold was up by 0.3%, to $4,221 per ounce. Silver rose 1.7% to $58 per ounce. (Stella Qiu contributed additional reporting from Sydney; editing by Tom Hogue and Shri Navaratnam, Thomas Derpinghaus).
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Local media reports that Norway will acquire two more submarines and long-range missiles
Norwegian newspapers VG and Aftenposten, citing anonymous source, reported that the Norwegian government would announce on Friday plans to purchase two additional German submarines and a separate acquisition of long-range cannon. The order for the submarine comes on top of four submarines that were ordered by Thyssenkrupp, a German company in 2021 at a cost of 45 billion crowns. Aftenposten reported that the updated submarine order would now cost around 100 billion crowns (about $10 billion), partly due to inflationary costs for raw materials and defence equipment. NATO countries are increasing their defence spending under pressure from President Donald Trump's administration in the United States and because they feel uneasy about the ongoing war in Ukraine. Norway is NATO’s monitor of the vast area of 2 million square kilometers (772,000 square mile) in the North Atlantic, which is used by the Russian Northern Fleet's nuclear subs. The Russian submarines, which are based on the Kola peninsula, in the Arctic, near Norway, will be the focus of the mission. Norway also plans to purchase long-range missiles for its army, capable of reaching targets up to 500 km away (310 miles), for 19 billion crowns. Western countries have been compelled to increase their missile attack capability due to the war in Ukraine and the prevalence of missile attacks. The Norwegian Defence Ministry said that it was unable to confirm or deny these reports. The list of decisions made during the King's Council will be published by the government later on Friday.
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Boliden, a Swedish miner, says that it will spend less money in 2026
Boliden, a Swedish miner, said that it would lower its capital spending to 15 billion Swedish crowns (about $1.65 billion) by 2026. This is 500 million crowns below what it plans to spend in 2018. CEO Mikael staffas said that the copper and zinc producer did not have any new major projects. Instead, the spending plan is primarily for existing projects such as a new tankhouse in its Ronnskar facility, the Garpenberg Zinc Mine expansion to 4.5 millions tons in Sweden and the completion and expansion of the Odda Zinc Smelter in Norway. Boliden usually releases its 2026 outlook along with its third quarter results. However, it delayed the release until December to allow for the consolidation of the Somincor and Zinkgruvan Mines that were purchased last year by Lundin Mining. Staffas stated that capital expenditures related to these mines are expected to reach 2 billion crowns by 2026. This is an increase of 500 millions crowns from this year. The group estimated that planned maintenance shutdowns at their smelters will reduce the operating profit in 2026 by 450 millions crowns. This is down from its forecast of 500 million crowns for 2025. Boliden also said that it expects a one-time adjustment to its operating profit of approximately 400 million crowns for the fourth quarter this year, related to metal recovery assessments at Ronnskar. This is after an fire in the tank house closed down the largest production unit of the group in June 2023.
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BHP and Rio Tinto begin testing electric haul trucks in Jimblebar
BHP, a global miner, announced on Friday it had taken delivery of two electrical haul trucks for a trial to begin at its Jimblebar Iron Ore Mine in Australia's Pilbara. The truck trials are intended to reduce diesel consumption and greenhouse gas emission. BHP stated that the battery-electric trial, in partnership with Rio Tinto, and Caterpillar industrial equipment manufacturer, aims to test whether the technology can be used as an alternative for diesel in large-scale mining operations of iron ore. BHP stated that after the trial, miners will independently determine the progress they have made towards scaling up trials in their respective operations. Tim Day, BHP's Western Australia Iron Ore Asset president, said that replacing diesel was not just about changing the energy source, but also about reimagining our operations and developing technologies, infrastructure, and supply chains for mining operations. He said that the trials would help him to understand the interplay between the various pieces: battery technologies, charging and generation infrastructures, power management as well as supply chains for a possible large-scale deployment.
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Gold prices rise as the dollar falls ahead of US inflation tests
Gold prices rose Friday as a result of a weaker dollar. Investors were awaiting U.S. inflation figures that could set the tone for next week's Federal Reserve interest rate policy meeting. As of 0717 GMT spot gold was up 0.5% at $4,227.35 an ounce. However, it was still on course for a weekly decline of 0.1%. U.S. Gold Futures for December Delivery edged up 0.4% to $4,257.90 an ounce. The dollar was slipping and not far off a five-week high against major counterparts. Kelvin Wong, senior market analyst at OANDA, noted that sellers have not been able to surpass the high of Monday of $4,264.29. The market is showing signs of caution, as traders prepare for the Personal Consumption Expenditures data. "This key data keeps short-term traders on the conservative side when adding long positions... while the dollar now supports (gold)." ADP figures released on Wednesday showed that private payrolls dropped by 32,000 in December, the largest drop in over 2-1/2 years. More than 100 economists surveyed by predict that the Fed will lower its key interest rate at its meeting on December 9-10 by 25 basis points. Gold is a non-yielding asset that tends to be favoured by lower interest rates. Investors await the September PCE Index - the Fed's preferred measure of inflation - due at 1500 GMT. Silver is up 2% at $58.27 per ounce. This marks a weekly increase after reaching a record price of $58.98 last Wednesday. Its price has risen by about 101% this year due to structural shortages, concerns over liquidity and its inclusion on the U.S. Critical Minerals list. Palladium, which gained 1.1% and is also expected to lose money for the week, was up 1.1% at $1,465.02, but it was still on track to finish the week in a positive manner. (Reporting and editing by Lincoln Feast in Bengaluru, Sherry Phillips and Harikrishnan Nair; reporting by Ishaan arora from Bengaluru)
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Dalian iron ore prices end the week lower due to improved supply and soft Chinese demand
Dalian iron-ore futures fell on Friday, and the week ended lower as rising seaborne shipments at year's end and tepid Chinese demands weighed. The January contract for iron ore most traded on China's Dalian Commodity Exchange fell by 1.01%, to 785.5 Yuan ($111.12), per metric ton. The contract closed the week at a 0.57% decrease. As of 0708 GMT, the benchmark January iron ore traded on Singapore Exchange fell 0.92% to $1003.3 per ton. It was still on track to finish the week at 1.48%. Iron ore shipments are expected to rise near the end of the year, and will be further loosen in December, with an increase in carriers arriving, whereas demand for steelmaking materials is likely to fall amid production cuts in steel mills. This was noted by consultancy Mysteel. In November, the top Brazilian producer shipped nearly 34.5 millions tons of grain by sea. This was an increase of 2.93% on a year-on-year basis. Mysteel said that positive macroeconomic signals as well as anticipated restocking demands among steelmakers would lend some support. We see the iron ore markets in a surplus this year, and we see this surplus growing over the next couple of years. Analysts from Citi said that with Simandou online, and China's steel production on a structural decrease, prices will trade on fundamentals in the future and tend closer to costs. Simandou's iron ore project, which is expected to have a production capacity of 120,000,000 metric tons per year, will be the largest iron ore mine in the world, and will play a key role in the green transformation of the global steel value chains. Coking coal and coke, which are used in the steelmaking process, have both fallen by 2.31% and 3.15 percent, respectively. The benchmark steel prices on the Shanghai Futures Exchange are mixed. The Shanghai Futures Exchange saw a mixed performance in steel benchmarks. Rebar fell 0.09%, hot-rolled coil closed level while wire rod rose 1.12% and stainless steel firmed up 0.52%. ($1 = 7,0688 Chinese yuan). (Reporting and editing by Lucas Liew, Sumana Niandy, Sherry Jacob Phillips).
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Citi raises its price forecast, and copper prices soar to record levels
The price of copper reached a new record on Friday after Citi raised its outlook for the metal. Supply concerns and the expectation that the U.S. Federal Reserve will cut interest rates next week are driving the market. After hitting a record high of 92.910 yuan per ton during the day, the most active copper contract at the Shanghai Futures Exchange ended the trading session 2.19% higher, closing the daytime trades at 92.780 yuan. Shanghai copper recorded a weekly gain of 4.99%. The benchmark three-month Copper on the London Metal Exchange surged as well, rising 1.90% at $11,667.60 per ton by 0705 GMT. It had previously reached a high of $11,705. The London copper price is expected to finish the week at a gain of 4.32%. Citi analysts expect copper prices will continue to climb into the first quarter of next year, and reach an average of $13,000 per ton in the second quarter 2026. This is up from their October outlook at $12,000, while their bull case has risen to $15,000, from $14,000. The bank said that prices would remain supported by macrofunds as investors prepare for a soft U.S. economy landing. They also noted a growing supply shortage as the mine supply does not keep up with demand due to energy transition and artificial intelligence. The bank said that additional tightness will be expected due to the stockpiling of U.S. commodities linked to COMEX and LME arbitrage. Reports on Thursday indicated that Mercuria, a commodity trader, was responsible for the removal of more than 40,000 tons of copper earlier this week from warehouses registered with LME. According to the data released by the LME on Thursday, copper continued to flow from warehouses registered with LME in Asia. Copper stocks in other countries have been kept low by the fact that a large amount of copper removed from the LME sheds was shipped to the U.S. where prices are still high due to tariff concerns. Copper prices were also supported by the elevated hopes of a Fed rate reduction next week. Aluminium was up by 1.29% among other SHFE base materials, while zinc was up by 2.04%. Lead was also up by 0.61%. Tin was down 0.28%, and nickel was little altered. The LME's other metals saw a slight increase in aluminium, while zinc, lead, and tin were all down. Nickel was also little changed. ($1 = 7,0688 Chinese Yuan Renminbi)
AI bubble worries in 2026 will test Asia's strong equity deal pipeline
The Asian equity capital market will be boosted by a strong pipeline of high profile IPOs from companies in China and India that are looking to take advantage of the diversification trend among investors. However, concerns over rising tech valuations may slow down momentum.
LSEG data shows that Asian equity capital markets (ECMs) have been awash with $267 billion in deals this year. This is up 15% on 2024 and the first annual increase since 2021.
Data shows that Hong Kong, which is the preferred listing destination of Chinese companies, has dominated regional ECM transactions with 75 billion dollars raised so far in 2025. This is more than triple the amount raised last year, and the highest level since 2021.
LSEG data shows that India has raised $19.3 Billion via IPOs this year. This is down 6% compared to the record $20,5 Billion in 2024. Data for 2025 does not include the $604 million IPO of e-commerce company Meesho, which is currently underway.
James Wang, Goldman Sachs' head of Asia and ex-Japan ECM, said that the two main drivers for equity issuance in Asia this year were China's recovery as well as India's continued growth.
He said that he expected both markets to be central to the regional deal flow by 2026. "We're still in the beginning stages of a larger upswing, supported by Asia’s economic growth and improved corporate earnings," he said.
According to a forecast from investment banking firm Equirus Capital, India will generate up to $20 billion in IPOs by 2026. Public disclosures revealed that over 300 companies had filed for Hong Kong listing.
Advisors expect that landmark offerings, such as India's Reliance Jio Platforms IPO and Hong Kong's second listing of China Zhongji Innolight Co will boost volumes in 2026.
PIVOTING AWAY FROM US ASSETS
Asia has benefitted from the global trend of diversifying portfolios. Investors have shifted away from U.S. assets over the past few months due to uncertainty about President Donald Trump's geopolitical and trade policies.
Li He, Davis Polk's Asia co-head and former Japan partner, said: "In times of U.S. turmoil, capital often rotates to Asia in search for diversification and structural gains."
The recovery of 2025 wasn't a flash in a pan. It reflected the deep liquidity in the region, and a clear shift towards frontier technologies which are changing how we produce, consume and interact.
The Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong has risen nearly 30%, beating U.S. benchmarks. India's benchmark is up around 10.8%.
Taking advantage, Chinese battery company CATL raised $5.3 Billion in a Hong Kong Second Listing, and Zijin Gold International reaped $3 Billion from an IPO, in two of the largest offerings in the world this year.
AI BUBBLE CONCERNS
The largest bout of volatility seen in U.S. stock prices in months, in November, revealed cracks in global AI rally. This raised questions about whether the markets are in the grip of a speculative boom that is about to burst.
Reports indicate that Chinese AI chip manufacturers MetaX, Kunlunxin and Zhipu AI, among others are planning IPOs. These deals could be worth billions of dollars.
Arun Balasubramanian is a partner in the law firm Freshfields. He said that many AI technologies and digital infrastructure assets are yet to be tapped into public markets in Asia. However, it is too early to tell if AI is overvalued.
"If these AI bubble concerns result in a major selloff, it could be contagious." Significant selloffs affect not only one sector but the entire market. "So that's an important risk."
Pratik Loonker is the head of ECM at India's Axis Capital. He said that AI-driven global de-rating may have an impact on valuations and pricing.
Investors are moving away from high-growth stories and towards quality names that generate cash.
(source: Reuters)