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China's stock rally begins to gain investor confidence

Fund managers are holding volatile tech stocks in China and picking industrial stocks, betting that a two-year old equities rally will withstand an economic downturn, as valuations, and steady returns, lure foreign investors. China's blue chip index CSI300 is up 16% on the year to date, matching S&P 500. Hong Kong's Hang Seng has risen about 30% and is set for its biggest annual gain since 2017.

The mood has changed from the euphoria triggered by stimulus a year earlier, but the ride is getting bumpier. This is especially true as the pressure on China Vanke reminds the market participants that the prolonged property downturn will not be over.

Investors and analysts seem to have little concern about the current bull market, claiming that it is only taking a break.

Laura Wang, Morgan Stanley's China equity strategist, said: "We think we are only at the beginning stages of a gradual process where foreign investors come back to China."

She said that investors had begun to change their minds after seeing the results of this year.

China stocks have also defied Sino-American trade friction and climbed thanks to state support, improved corporate governance and big gains for artificial-intelligence-linked stocks after the impressive release of DeepSeek's chatbot. A record HK$1.38 billion ($177 billion) has also been poured into Hong Kong's capital markets, which have seen a revival.

Fund manager Xia Fuguang at Shenzhen Rongzhi Investment said that the next leg of bull run would likely be driven primarily by fundamental improvements and growth in earnings.

He is also in favor of Beijing's anti-involution campaign, which is a campaign to combat industrial overcapacity, price wars and other issues.

Fund managers claim that the valuations of industrial stocks, which are based on anti-involution policies, are also attractive and are attracting investment. Fund manager Wang An explained that "cyclical stocks are relatively inexpensive, so you can build positions at a time when prices are low as anti-involution policy gradually takes root."

According to Datayes, over the past three-month period, ETFs that track the CSI Battery Thematic Index have seen net inflows of 13.5 billion yuan, or $1.91 billion. Another 11.2 billion yuan has been invested in funds tracking the CSI Chemicals Sub-industry Index.

Net outflows of 31.1 billion yuan were recorded by funds tracking the tech-heavy STAR 50 Index during the same time period.

Xu Jie is a fund manager from Shanghai at Yuanzi Investment Management. He has purchased solar energy, steelmaking, and coal stocks.

Xu, citing possible inflows of foreigners and depositors, said that there is "no doubt" the slow bull run in China will continue into next year.

The Shanghai Composite Index, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng, are currently trading at about 12 times earnings. According to LSEG, this compares to a multiple 28 for the S&P 500 and a ratio 21 for Japan's Nikkei 225. The FTSE 100 Index in Europe has a ratio of 21. Whether you consider valuation or liquidity we are only halfway through the bull market, said Wang Wendi. Distribution manager at Shanghai Intewise Capital. The company has increased its stakes in steelmakers and chemical producers.

Zenith & Xenium Capital is another Chinese fund house that has also made bets on cyclical sectors like photovoltaic companies, refiners, chemical processors, and new energy.

NEW CHINA

For the past few decades, foreigners have been concerned about policy risks in China. They have kept their allocations low while U.S. investments and global investments performed well.

Investors have said that they are not 100% in China. Factory activity has slowed down for the eighth consecutive month in October.

Vincenzo Vedda is the global chief investment officer of DWS. He said, "We're not sure about China."

China no longer provides real-time information on foreign investment. The latest figures from the central bank show that foreign holdings reached 3.5 trillion Yuan by the end of September. This is still well below the peak of 3.9 trillion Yuan in 2021, but it does reflect some strength. Florian Neto is the head of Asia investment at Amundi - Europe's largest asset manager. He is neutral, but makes a distinction between "old China", where exporters and developers were facing economic headwinds, and "new China", where AI and Biotech firms could expect earnings growth.

He said that the market is driven by innovation, technology and innovative drugs. We are looking forward to adding more.

Investors who look at their returns for the full year may decide to buy in 2026. Kristina Hooper, chief market analyst at Man Group New York, said that other stock markets performed better this year than the U.S.

"I think most investors will recognize this paradigm shift by January... I believe that encourages looking for opportunities outside of the U.S., especially when valuations are so stretched."

(source: Reuters)