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ASIA COPPER WORRID-China's crackdown on overcapacity reaches copper but market impact is unlikely

Plans to build a series of new smelters have been shelved

The industry still expects to gain new capacity through projects in construction

The move is seen as a sign of more to come

Amy Lv. Lewis Jackson, and Dylan Duan

Industry insiders say that the decision by China to shelve plans for a number of copper smelters will not have a significant impact on historically tight copper markets, unless more measures are taken to reduce output.

Due to the disruptions in mines, supplies of copper concentrate have been stretched and increased.

The fees paid for processing copper (also known as treatment and refinement charges) have dropped to negative historic levels. China announced on Wednesday that it had suspended the construction of 2 million metric tonnes of new smelting capacities. This was a gesture to the difficulties faced by Chinese smelters during annual negotiations over copper concentrate supplies.

Eight analysts and three traders who spoke to us on the sidelines the World Copper Conference Asia, held in Shanghai, this week, stated that there would be no immediate impact on the copper market, as the projects currently under construction will be completed.

Helen Amos is a commodities analyst with BMO Capital Markets. She said: "I don’t think that the decision will change anything over the next two years because we are still seeing new smelting capacities coming online."

Unnamed Chinese analyst said that the announcement which didn't name any project raised many questions, such as how the 2 million ton figure was calculated.

The Chinese government is redoubling its efforts to reverse the rampant overcapacity of industrial production. Policies to reduce production have been implemented for coal, lithium, and polysilicon (the raw material used in solar panels).

Uncertain is how far Beijing would go to curb a sector that helps China offset its reliance on refined copper imports, which it wants to reduce.

The industry figures warned that if Wednesday's announcement signals the government is planning or considering more drastic measures, such as forced capacity reductions or production caps, then it could have a greater impact.

Amos stated, "For me it's symbolic of the industry being affected by policy changes like we have seen in the past with steel and aluminum." (Amy Lv in Shanghai, Lewis Jackson in Beijing; editing by Joe Bavier).

(source: Reuters)