Latest News
-
Tinubu wants a $30 billion budget reset in order to stop fiscal years overlapping
Bola Ahmed Tinubu, the President of Nigeria has asked Parliament to approve a 43.56 trillion Naira (US$29.96 billion), spending plan that repeals and reenacts 2024's budget to?run until December 2025. The goal is to eliminate fiscal cycles that overlapped in recent years and tighten control on public finances. This move comes after months of criticism from lawmakers about the government's reliance upon?rolling forward capital budgets. As a result, the 2024 capital spending was extended to June 2025 and then December 2025. After years of budget mismanagement, the 'proposal' aims to restore discipline and accountability in Africa’s most populous nation. The lawmakers now want to reset the calendar year cycle in 2026. In a letter read by Speaker Tajudeen Abbas on the floor of the House of Representatives on ?Wednesday, Tinubu said the proposed repeal-and-reenactment bill would authorise withdrawals from the federal account and allocate ?1.74 trillion naira for statutory transfers, 8.27 trillion naira for debt ?service, 11.27 trillion naira for recurrent spending, and 22.28 trillion naira for capital projects ?under a single framework. Tinubu stated that the measure would "put an end to running multiple budgets simultaneously"?and improve capital projects execution after repeated rolling over of 2024 expenditure into 2025 along with a separate 54.99 billion naira budget for 2025.
-
Silver tops $66, gold gains 1% due to soft US labor market
Silver prices reached a new record of $66 per ounce on Wednesday. Meanwhile, gold prices firmed up as the U.S. Federal Reserve raised expectations of rate cuts after signs of an unsteady labor market. Spot silver increased by about 4%, to $66.3 per ounce. It had previously reached a session high of $66.51. Edward Meir, a Marex analyst, said that "silver is pulling up gold with it... There is some money moving out of gold into silver and platinum and palladium." "$70/oz" (for silver) seems to be the next logical goal in the short term. After rising by over 1% in the morning, spot gold rose 0.7% at 12:10 pm ET (17:10 GMT) to $4332.21 an ounce. U.S. Gold Futures were also 0.7% higher at $4,364. Silver has risen 126% in the past year, surpassing gold which has risen 65%. On ?Tuesday, data showed a stronger-than-expected increase of 64,000 jobs in the U.S. last month, but the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, its highest level since September 2021. Gold and other non-yielding investments could benefit from a weak labor market. Bas Kooijman is the CEO and asset manager at DHF Capital S.A. The U.S. Federal Reserve announced its final quarter-point rate reduction of the year last week. Investors now price in two 25 basis-point rate cuts in 2026. The market is now awaiting the Consumer Price Index for November, due Thursday. And Personal Consumption Spending Price Index, due Friday. Donald Trump, the U.S. president, ordered a "blockade", of all sanctioned tankers that enter and leave Venezuela. This was Washington's latest effort to increase pressure on Nicolas Maduro, adding to the demand for safe haven. Platinum rose 2.5% to $1,896.90 - its highest level in over 17 years. Palladium was up nearly 2.5% at $1,643.79 and reached its highest level in more than 17 years.
-
Trump Administration dissolves key climate research agency
The Trump administration announced on Tuesday night that it would dissolve a federally funded?climate research center located in Colorado. This is the latest attempt to?defund this research. Ross Vought of the White House Office of Management and Budget said that the administration would break up the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder (NCAR), which conducts scientific research on earth systems. The facility, he added, "is one of America's largest sources of climate alarmism." Vought posted on X Tuesday night that "a?comprehensive' review was underway & vital activities like weather research would be relocated to?another location or entity." This is the latest attempt by the Trump administration to eliminate U.S. climate research as well as federal agencies who have previously worked on climate research and greenhouse gas regulation. The Administration has proposed cutting the budget of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration by $1.33 billion or 28 percent this year. It also proposes a 75 percent cut in its Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research, which would eliminate climate science research at that agency. In the past year, it has also fired all the contributors to the National Climate Assessment. This is the study which informs the?federal government and local governments about how to prepare themselves for the impacts of climate change. Colorado's Democratic governor Jared Polis claimed that he was not officially informed?of the cutbacks by the administration. He warned that the death of NCAR would give rivals abroad a?competitive advantage. Polis stated in a statement that "NCAR provides data about severe weather events such as fires and flooding, which helps our country to save lives and property and prevent devastation of families." He said that if these cuts are implemented, we would lose our competitive edge against foreign powers in the pursuit of scientific discoveries. NCAR develops and maintains research instruments that are widely used by the scientific community, governments and international climate assessment bodies. The community earth system, weather research and prediction and climate models are among them. (Reporting and editing by Aidan Lewis; Valerie Volcovici)
-
Silver tops $66, gold gains 1% due to soft US labor market
Silver prices briefly surpassed $66 per ounce on Wednesday to reach a new record high, while gold prices firmed as the Federal Reserve of the United States lowered rates after signs of a weaker job market and as tensions between Venezuela and the U.S. escalated. Spot silver increased 2.8%, to $65.55 per ounce. It had previously reached a session high of $66.52. Edward Meir, a Marex analyst, said: "Silver has pulled gold up with it. There is money moving out of gold into silver and platinum. "$70/oz" (for silver) seems to be the logical next target for the short term." Spot gold rose 0.8%, to $4335.64 per ounce at 09:38 am ET (1438 GMT), following a 1% rise earlier in the day. U.S. Gold Futures?were 0.8% higher at $4,367.10. Silver has risen 126% in the past year, surpassing gold's 65% increase. On Tuesday, data showed a stronger-than-expected increase of 64,000 jobs in the U.S. last month, but the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, its highest level since September 2021. Gold is a non-yielding asset that benefits from a weak labour market. Bas Kooijman is the CEO and asset manager at DHF Capital S.A. The U.S. Federal Reserve announced its third and final quarter point rate cut for the year last week. Investors now price in two 25 basis-point rate cuts in 2026. The market is now waiting for the Consumer Price Index for November, due Thursday and the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index on Friday. Donald Trump, the U.S. president, ordered a "blockade", of all sanctioned tankers that enter and leave Venezuela. This was Washington's latest move to increase pressure against Nicolas Maduro’s government. It also added to the safe-haven request. Platinum rose 2.3% to $1,892.60. This is the highest level in over 17 years. Palladium rose nearly 1%, to $1,618.44. This is its highest price since February 2023.
-
Mexican President calls on UN to "avoid bloodshed" in Venezuela
The Mexican president Claudia Sheinbaum urged the United Nations on Wednesday to?act? in order to prevent bloodshed in Venezuela as tensions between the South American nation and the United States escalate. Sheinbaum stated during her "morning" press conference that Mexico was against foreign interference and intervention in Venezuela. "I call upon the United Nations to fulfill their role. It was not present. She said, 'It must take its role to prevent any bloodshed. The U.S. president Donald Trump ordered on Tuesday a "blockade," of all sanctioned tankers that enter and leave Venezuela. The government of Nicolas Maduro called this a "grotesque" threat. Trump will speak to U.S. residents from the White House later on Wednesday evening. U.S. tensions have escalated with Venezuela as Trump has shifted thousands of troops, nearly a dozen ships - including an aircraft carrier – to the area. Venezuela's government issued a statement in which it said that they rejected Trump's 'grotesque' threat.
-
Zimbabwe abolishes the gold royalty increase and raises threshold for windfall tax
Zimbabwe reversed its plans to double the gold royalty rate from 5% to 10%. This was revealed in a new 2026 budget bill on Wednesday. According to the revised budget, the 5% royalty rate will continue to be applicable to gold prices between $1200 and $5,000 an ounce. This was approved in the early morning hours of Wednesday by the lower chamber of Zimbabwe's parliament after a lengthy debate. Finance Minister Mthuli Ncube proposed in his budget speech of last month that the gold royalty rate be doubled to 10% for gold sold above $2,501 per ounce. He told the lawmakers during the late-night debate on the budget that the?10% rate of royalty would only be applicable if the price of bullion exceeded $5,000 an ounce. He added that small-scale miner's royalty rates would remain at a lower level of up to 2 percent. Caledonia Mining Plc, a large-scale miner in southern Zimbabwe that produces 80,000 ounces of gold per year, has warned about the impact on profitability of the proposed royalty increase. Caledonia says the increase in royalties and other changes to Zimbabwe fiscal regime will also hinder plans to develop their $500 million Bilboes Project, which is Zimbabwe's largest gold mine. In the 11 months leading up to November 2025 the southern African nation produced 42?metric tons, which is a record, surpassing the previous 37?metric tons set in 2024. Industry groups warned that the government’s increase in royalty would hinder efforts to attract investments and reposition Zimbabwe as one of Africa's leading gold producers.
-
Russell: China's steel production will slump to a 7-year-low as iron ore exports reach record levels.
China's steel output in November was the 'weakest month' in almost two years. This will result in the world's largest producer of metal posting its 'lowest annual production since 2018'. Imports of iron ore, the key raw material for steel, are expected to reach a new record in 2025. This will surpass the previous high of 1,24 billion metric tonnes, set in 2024. Iron ore stocks were restocked amid low seaborne prices, and there was optimism that Beijing’s stimulus measures would eventually increase steel demand. While the iron ore sector may be experiencing a positive sentiment, it is still facing the reality of a weakening demand for steel in the important property construction sector as well as in manufacturing. China's steel output?fell in November to 69.87 millions tons, down 10.9% on the same month one year ago, according to data released by the government on December 15 The output was at its lowest since December 2023, the sixth consecutive month of decline. The steel production for the first 11 month of this year was 891.67 millions tons, down by 4% compared to the same period in 2024. If the daily steel production in December is similar to that of November, then total 2025 production will be around 964 millions tons. This would be the lowest production since?2018 when 928.3 millions tons were produced. It would also represent a drop of approximately 4% compared to the 1.005 million tons in 2024. Steel prices have largely mirrored the weakening of production, with Shanghai Exchange rebar contracts closing at 3,081 Yuan ($437.64), down 10.1% from the close of 3,529 Yuan on July 30 when the current downward trend began. IRON STRENGTH The price of iron ore has taken a different path. Singapore Exchange contracts have been rising since July 1, when they hit a low of $93.35 per ton, a 10-month-low. The price of a ton closed at $106.25 on Tuesday. This is a slight drop from the previous high close for this year, which was $107.90 in December. Prices have risen in tandem with the strength of imports during the second half. November arrivals were 110.54 million tonnes, an 8.5% increase from a year ago. Iron ore imports for the first 11 months were up by 1.4%, to 1.139 billion tonnes. This means that they need to surpass 98 millions tons in December, to beat the record total of 1.237 bn tons set in 2024. The commodity analysts Kpler estimate that China's iron ore imports in December will be around 121,000,000?tons. How long will iron ore imports outperform steel? It depends on the amount of inventory that Chinese steel mills are willing to increase. They have been increasing in recent weeks. SteelHome monitors stockpiles in Chinese ports The week ending December 12 saw a rise of 143.8 million tonnes, compared to 142.4 million in the previous week. The price of corn has risen by 10.5% since the 18-month-low of 130.1 millions tons in early August. It is now approaching the 27-month high of 151.8 from July last year. Iron ore imports are likely to be reduced in the next few months, as inventories have a limited capacity for growth. You like this column? Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. ROI provides data-driven, thought-provoking analysis on everything from soybeans to swap rates. The markets are changing faster than ever. ROI can help you keep up. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, X. These are the views of a columnist who writes for.
-
Gold to shine again in 2019 despite highest gain since 1979
The gold price has doubled in the past two years, making it the biggest increase since the oil crisis of 1979. This performance could have been interpreted as a forecast for a major correction. Analysts at JP Morgan and Bank of America, as well as Metals Focus, now expect 'bullion to reach $5,000 per troy-ounce by 2026. Spot gold prices hit a record of $4,381 per ounce in October. They had never reached $3,000 prior to March. This was due to demand from central banks and investors, including stablecoin issuer Tether as well as corporate treasurers. BofA's Michael Widmer, a strategist, said that the expectation of future gains or portfolio diversification is driving the buying. This is due to the U.S. budget deficit, the efforts to reduce the U.S. Current Account deficit, and the weak dollar policy. Philip Newman said that Metals Focus's managing director, Philip Newman, believes the support for metals is due to concerns about U.S. Federal Reserve Independence, tariff disputes, and geopolitics, including war in Ukraine, and Russia’s interaction with NATO nations in Europe. CENTRAL BANKS ANCHOR CYCLE Analysts said that central banks diversifying their reserves away from dollar-denominated investments for a fifth consecutive year should provide a solid foundation for gold by 2026, as they will buy at a time when investors are stretched and money is rotating, while prices are falling. Gregory Shearer is the head of JP Morgan's base and precious metals strategies. He said, "The price level has been supported higher than it was when you first started due to central bank demand." "And then, all of a suddenly, we're above $4,000, in a much more cleaner environment, from a position perspective, which allows the cycle to go forward," he explained, referring to signals that investors use to extend positions again after derisking. Analysts at JP Morgan estimate that quarterly central bank demand and investment of 350 metric tonnes is required for prices to remain flat. This buying is expected to be 585 tons on average per quarter by 2026. JP Morgan Shearer stated that the share of gold in total assets managed by investors has risen from 1.5% to 2.8%, compared with levels before 2022. She added that this is not a ceiling, but rather a high level. Morgan Stanley predicts that gold will be $4,500 an ounce by the middle of 2026. JP Morgan anticipates prices to average above $4,600 per ounce in Q2 and $5,000 in Q4. Metals Focus expects gold to reach $5,000 by the end of 2026. Hedging Equity Bets BIS, the global central bank umbrella group, said that gold and stock prices rising in tandem is a phenomenon seen for at least half a decade. This raises questions about potential bubbles in both. Gold analysts say that part of the gold purchases this year were a hedge to protect against sharp corrections on equity markets. This was fuelled by tensions among historic allies due to tariffs, trade issues and the war in Ukraine. Gold is still at risk, since sharp corrections on the equity market often lead to the sale of safe haven assets. Nicky Shiels is the head of metals at MKS PAMP. He predicts that prices will average $4,500 by 2026. Gold, according to Shiels, will be "a multi-year, secular portfolio asset, rather than a hedge". Analysts expect the gold rally to be less dramatic by 2026. Macquarie's economists said that the world had stabilised. They predicted a recovery in global growth and a tapering of central bank easing. Macquarie expects gold prices to average $4,225 by 2026, a little lower than Wednesday's spot price of $4 317. In the meantime, central bank purchases of?gold ETFs and inflows to them are expected to slow next year. The jewellery market, which dropped 23% in third quarter is under pressure, and retail demand for coins and bars can only partially compensate for this. Amy Gower is a commodities strategist with Morgan Stanley. She said that in October, the queues of retail clients?seen by Morgan Stanley in Australia and Europe?may have represented a shift from jewellery to investments. This trend may continue into next year. Newman, at Metals Focus, says that the demand for coins and bars did not show much profit-taking following October. He adds: "If prices start to rise again, you may well be able to buy into this rally." The supply response is muted, with only a 6% increase in recycling. Macquarie says total gold demand will rise by 11% to 5,150 tonnes this year, then fall to 4,815 tons in 2026. CRYPTO MEETS SILVER Fed easing has brought in a new institutional investor for gold, in the form Tether. Tether is the issuer of the largest stablecoin in the world. The third quarter reports from Tether show that it bought 26 tons of gold, which is five times the amount reported by China's central banks. Morgan Stanley's Gower stated that the issue is not one to be overlooked, but added it was unclear whether other firms would adopt a similar approach because of U.S. The GENIUS Act doesn't list gold as a stablecoin reserve asset. India has allowed pension funds to purchase gold and silver ETFs. Metals Focus reported that China allowed insurance funds to purchase gold in February. However, these purchases were limited due to the bullion's rise.
ASIA COPPER WORRID-China's crackdown on overcapacity reaches copper but market impact is unlikely
Plans to build a series of new smelters have been shelved
The industry still expects to gain new capacity through projects in construction
The move is seen as a sign of more to come
Amy Lv. Lewis Jackson, and Dylan Duan
Industry insiders say that the decision by China to suspend a number of planned copper smelters will not have a significant impact on historically tight copper markets, unless more measures are taken to reduce output.
Due to the disruption of mines, copper concentrate supplies are becoming scarcer and more expensive. The growth in smelting capacity in China has increased competition globally for this feedstock. The fees paid for processing copper (also known as treatment and refinement charges) have dropped to negative historic levels. China announced on Wednesday that it had suspended the construction of 2 million metric tonnes of new smelting capacities. This was a gesture to the difficulties faced by Chinese smelters during annual negotiations over copper concentrate supplies.
Eight analysts and three traders who spoke to us on the sidelines the World Copper Conference Asia, held in Shanghai, this week, stated that there would be no immediate impact on copper prices, as the projects currently under construction will be completed.
Helen Amos is a commodities analyst with BMO Capital Markets. She said: "I don't believe the decision will change anything over the next two years because we are still seeing new smelting capacities coming online."
Unidentified Chinese analyst said that the announcement which didn't name any projects only raised questions. This included how the 2 million ton figure was calculated. The Chinese government is redoubling its efforts to reverse the rampant industrial overcapacity. Policies to reduce production have been implemented for coal, lithium and polysilicon (the raw material used in solar panels).
Uncertainty remains, however, as to how far Beijing is willing to go in order to curb a sector that helps China offset its reliance on refined copper imports, which it would like to reduce. The industry figures warned that if Wednesday's announcement signals Beijing is planning or considering more drastic measures, such as forced capacity reductions or a cap on production, then it could have a greater impact.
Amos stated, "For me it's symbolic of the industry being affected by policy changes like we have seen in steel and aluminum in the past." (Amy Lv in Shanghai, Lewis Jackson and Dylan Duan; editing by Joe Bavier).
(source: Reuters)