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Brazil's trade surplus will be higher in 2026 than its own projections, after exceeding them last year

Brazil's trade surplus will be higher in 2026 than its own projections, after exceeding them last year
Brazil's trade surplus will be higher in 2026 than its own projections, after exceeding them last year

The Ministry of Development Industry Trade and Services announced on Tuesday that Brazil is expecting a trade surplus between $70 billion and $90 billion by?2026. Last year's results exceeded government expectations.

Latin America's biggest economy posted a $68.3-billion surplus in 2025. This is down from $74.2-billion in 2024, as imports increased faster than exports. This shows the resilience of the economy, despite high borrowing rates to control inflation.

The surplus was higher than the most recent estimate of $61 billion by the Ministry. It followed a December surplus of $9.6 Billion.

Vice President Geraldo Alckmin said at a press briefing that he was "optimistic" about the growth of foreign trade, even if there were greater geopolitical instabilities.

BRAZIL HOPEFUL FOR TRADE DEALS Alckmin who is also the head of the ministry said that the 'government' remains hopeful about concluding a deal between Mercosur, the South American block, and the European Union. He added that he expects Mercosur to seal a free-trade agreement with the United Arab Emirates.

Brazil is aiming to extend preferential tariffs with India, Mexico and Canada. Imports increased 6.7% last year while exports rose by 3.5%. This was despite the fact that U.S. tariffs were imposed on several products, which were later partially reversed.

Alckmin also said that Brazil expects to progress talks with the U.S., and address non-tariff concerns involving rare Earths, big technology and data centers.

He said that Brazil had abundant renewable energy. Alckmin was asked about the impact of Venezuelan oil production following the capture by the U.S. of Venezuela's president. He acknowledged that oil is Brazil's number one export but said any market effects would not be immediately.

He said that although Venezuela has large oil deposits, it is not possible to achieve anything overnight. "Investment is required," he added.

By the Numbers

Brazilian export gains in 2025 were largely driven by increased shipments of beef, soybeans, corn, and coffee, which offset annual declines for crude oil?and iron ore due to falling commodity prices.

China remains Brazil's largest trading partner. Exports to China increased by 6%, reaching $100 billion. This represents nearly 30% of Brazil's total sales overseas. Brazilian exports to the United States fell 6.6%, to $37.7billion. (Reporting and editing by Franklin Paul, Matthew Lewis and Rod Nickel in Brasilia)

(source: Reuters)