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Gold prices rise on weak US economic data, traders consider Fed rate cuts

The gold price rose on Tuesday from its one-week low, supported by weak U.S. job numbers. Investors also assessed the probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December, ahead of further delayed U.S. statistics this week.

At 2 p.m. (EST) (1900 GMT), spot gold rose 0.4% to $4,072.37 an ounce after falling as low as it had been since November 10, earlier in the day. U.S. Gold futures for delivery in December settled at $4,066.50 an ounce with a 0.2% decrease. The number of Americans who received unemployment benefits reached a two-month peak in mid-October. In the week ending October 18, the claims for continued benefits rose to 1.9 millions.

The data is slightly increasing market expectations for a rate cut in December. The data is helping silver and gold, which are trying break a 3-day losing streak," said Tai Wong an independent metals dealer.

CME Group’s FedWatch tool shows that the markets now expect a nearly 50% chance of a rate reduction at the Fed’s meeting on December 9-10. This is up from the 46% seen earlier Tuesday but down from the 67% last week. Gold is a non-yielding investment that tends to perform well when rates are low. Investors reduced their bets that the U.S. would cut interest rates again this year, causing prices to fall more than 3% Friday and 1% Monday. The markets are now awaiting the minutes of the Fed's meeting on October 28-29, to be released Wednesday, as well as the U.S. Labor Department monthly employment report for the month of September, to be released Thursday, after the recent U.S. Government shutdown. The elevated official demand for Gold is expected to continue in the near future. "This supports a strategic bullish bias, and upside to our price forecast average of $4,000/oz next year," Deutsche Bank analyst said in a report.

Other metals saw a 1.2% increase in spot silver at $50.78 an ounce. Platinum rose by 0.5% to 1,541.57 and palladium jumped 1.1% to 1,408.52. (Reporting from Pablo Sinha and Kavya Baliaraman in Bengaluru. Additional reporting by Sarah Qureshi. Editing by Ed Osmond and Alan Barona. Paul Simao is the editor.)

(source: Reuters)