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Sources: Russian crude October Urals prices are up in Indian ports despite sanctions risk
Four market sources said on Friday that the price of Russia's Urals Crude Oil for delivery to India, its top buyer, is increasing despite rising sanctions risks. This is because Ukrainian attacks on Russian pipelines and ports as well as tightened sanctions have led to concerns over supply. In September, Ukrainian drone attacks disrupted the export of oil and increased production risks. This forced Russia to ship oil to western ports in order to reduce the impact. Four sources who are involved in Russian oil exports to India reported that the discount on Urals crude October loading has decreased to $2-$2.50 a barrel compared to Brent dated from $3 per barrel in September. This is because Western sanctions have intensified. Traders said that the freight rates for Urals to India from Russia's Baltic port rose from $5.5 to $6 million per voyage to $6.5 to $7 million per voyage in November from $5.5 to $6 million in September. The rise in prices is due to a decrease in shipping options, as a result of the tightening up of EU and UK price caps on Russia crude oil exports. In July, EU and UK sanctions were imposed on Russian oil exports. These included a price cap that was set at a 15% discount to the average market price, which is currently around $47.60 - well below $60, the price cap established by the G7 for December 2022. The Russian oil exports have been further complicated by new restrictions on tankers subject to sanctions. Adani Group in India, for instance, has prohibited sanctioned vessels entering its ports including the Mundra terminal. The EU and UK tightened restrictions, combined with U.S. Sanctions, target more than 444 tankers of the "shadow fleet", used to deliver oil to India and China. The United States, the EU and India have all criticised India's increased purchases of Russian oil. Washington has imposed higher tariffs on Indian imports due to its continued business with Moscow. New Delhi continues to buy despite the pressure.
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BlackRock and Vanguard back off on company talk as new guidance bites
Disclosures reveal that the world's largest asset managers have drastically reduced their meetings with company executives this year. New guidance has made it difficult to discuss issues like climate change and diversification. BlackRock and Vanguard's shifts came after the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission issued new guidance, headed by Mark Uyeda (a nominee of U.S. president Donald Trump). This could lead to executives receiving less input from investors on their strategy, or being surprised by critical votes during shareholder meetings. These directives are part of a recent Republican effort to reduce corporate actions, from climate disclosures of companies to the role of proxy advisers. BlackRock and Vanguard have seen their new disclosures decline by 28% and 44 %, respectively, when compared with the previous period. Consultants said that the declines are a sign of how the guidance has slowed down discussions between managers and shareholders ahead of corporate elections, on issues other than politically controversial topics like climate change. "The new guidance created a chilling impact on the largest investors, whether intentionally or not," said Peter da Silva Vint. He is now a corporate adviser at Jasper Street Partners. Da Silva Vint noted that fund managers often attend meetings "only listening", which makes it difficult for leaders of companies to know how they might vote. Surprises matter. Climate and social issues have been less prominent at recent corporate annual meetings, but corporate governance continues to be supported. Vanguard and BlackRock both stopped supporting nearly all social and climate resolutions during previous years. This pattern continued into 2025. SMILES MORE, NOT LESS. The new SEC guidance says that managers must file more complicated, expensive forms in order to report their major holdings when they "pressure" management, such as by tying director voting to the company's staggered board structure or its environmental policies. This reporting requirement may also be triggered by a fund firm that "states" or "implies" it won't support directors until a company changes its voting policy in accordance with the fund's. A representative of the SEC declined to comment. BlackRock and Vanguard were the main beneficiaries of this change. With a combined $22 trillion, both firms own more than 5% in stock issuers. Both firms took a pause and then re-established contact after assessing the new guidelines. The fund companies' reports now show a different pattern. BlackRock's Stewardship Team met with companies around the world 2,584 times in the 12 months ending June 30. This is a 28% drop from the previous period. Paul Schulman said that the majority of proxy-related engagements occurred after the SEC guidance on February 11, according to Paul Schulman. Senior managing director at proxy solicitor Sodali. He said that the guidance was "100%" the reason for the decline in attendance. Schulman noted that even during meetings, the stewardship team says less about their plans to vote. Top investment firms have "always been reluctant to reveal to the company their voting intentions." Schulman says that they are now reluctant to express their views on issues. BlackRock does not provide a count of meetings. BlackRock's recent report stated that its stewardship teams "listened to the company directors and executive to understand how they oversee material business risks and opportunity" and it could convey concerns via its AGM votes. The report from last year paints BlackRock as a more vocal stewardship group. The fund manager stated that when it had concerns "we usually raise these first through dialogue with the board members and management team." A BlackRock representative was asked for comment and cited its previous statement that it "doesn't use engagement as a means to control publicly listed companies." Vanguard's report of Aug. 21, showed that the Pennsylvania-based firm met with only 356 companies in April to June this year. This is down by 44% compared to the 640 firms it met with in 2024. Vanguard's report did not address the decline and a representative refused to comment. Vanguard's representative stated that the company does not and has never used engagements with businesses to signal its voting intentions. 'MORE CHALLENGING ENVIRONMENT' Paul Washington, CEO of the Society for Corporate Governance (which represents corporate secretaries, among others), said that the new guidelines limit the value of shareholder discussions. He said that this season, it was harder for companies to understand what their biggest investors thought. In a survey more than one quarter of members of the public company society said that they have found it "more challenging" to engage with investors this year. Companies are having difficulty maintaining relationships or exploring their opinions. (Reporting and editing by Nick Zieminski in Boston)
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Cholera outbreak kills 58 in northeast Nigeria
Authorities in Bauchi State, northeast Nigeria, announced on Friday that a cholera outbreak had killed 58 and infected over 250 people. This prompted the creation of new committees for emergency response and prevention. In Nigeria, health officials report widespread shortages of water and food in rural areas as well as urban slums. Auwal Mohammed Jatau, Deputy Governor of Bauchi State, said that the state had recorded 258 new cases with 58 deaths. These outbreaks can be prevented with coordinated responses and timely interventions. Jatau said that the committees are aiming to centralise and align long-term preventive strategies with the Nigeria Centre for Disease Control and Prevention and a national plan for cholera prevention. According to the NCDC, Nigeria has seen more than 11,000 suspected cases of cholera and 400 deaths over the last two years. Children under five are the most affected. Reporting by Camillus EBOH in Abuja, Writing by Elisha BALA-GBOGBO Editing by Peter Graff
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MORNING BID AMERICAS-Central bank bonanza
What are you waiting for? ROI Editor-in-Charge Anna Szymanski The rest of the ROI team is excited to watch, listen and read over the weekend. Hello Morning Bid readers! U.S. stocks reached record highs Thursday, thanks to the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates for the first time since 2025. Also, the Federal Reserve announced that Nvidia would invest $5 billion into the struggling U.S. semiconductor company Intel. The Bank of Japan's decision to keep short-term rates at 0.5% was expected. However, two of its members voted in favor of a rise. This week, the focus of financial attention has largely been on central bankers, notably the U.S. Federal Reserve. Others argue that because it's so difficult to figure out where the neutral rate is, the Fed may unintentionally get into stimulative land with its 25 basis point cut. Some argue that the Fed may have created its own problems, given its poor record in controlling inflation. The lack of clarity in Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks about the U.S. inflation and labor outlooks was one of the most important things to take away from his remarks. Jamie McGeever, ROI Markets columnist, says that this confusion is exemplified by the inconsistencies of the Fed's economic predictions and its statements. McGeever also explains why Fed easing may be a mixed blessing to the rest of world. In the United Kingdom, Band of England kept rates unchanged on Thursday but announced that it would slow down the pace of quantitative tightening. Mike Dolan, Editor-at-Large at ROI, asks the BoE why it doesn't scrap direct gilt sales completely. China's crude surplus surged on the commodities market in August, as robust imports from abroad and domestic production were offset by an increase in refinery processes. The data about China's crude stocks remains opaque. This is one of the many blind spots on the oil market. Ron Bousso, ROI Energy's columnist, argues that it is harder to determine what the real supply-demand balance of the world's largest commodity market really is. Gavin Maguire, ROI Energy Transition columnist, discusses how Texas and California have a growing lead over the rest the nation in terms of clean energy. He also explains how wind speeds in the UK could have far-reaching implications for Europe's power and gas sectors in the months to come. And in the metals industry, ROI columnist Andy Home discusses why the aluminium markets, defined by historic excess, may face an imminent shortage. Check out what the ROI team recommends you read, watch, and listen to as we enter the weekend. Stay informed and prepared for the coming week. Please contact me at The race to reduce carbon emissions by using biofuels is on. But between U.S. green fuel jet fuel and illegal forest destruction in the Amazon rainforest, questions are being raised about the validity of sustainability certifications as well as the unintended effects of climate policy. * RON BOUSSO is the ROI Energy Columnist. A free report on decline rates in oil and gas fields. It's a very technical report in some areas, but it shows how much money is required to keep oil and natural gas production stable, let alone grow. * ANNA SZYMANSKI is the Editor-in Charge of ROI. China's automotive industry faces a crisis due to an oversupply, which threatens both automakers and dealerships. This situation could lead to a shakeout that has far-reaching consequences. The hosts return from their APPEC break to bring you the latest market insights gleaned from various discussions surrounding the events. The team looks at Russian oil production, and how it could affect market structure in the future. MIKE DOLAN is the Editor-at Large for ROI Financial Markets. This audio summary goes over the key issues that are facing the world's financial markets. It emphasizes the fact that because markets have recovered from the uncertainty of trade in the first part of the year the financial conditions, if anything loosen excessively. Sign up for the newsletter to receive Morning Bid every morning in your email. Subscribe to the Morning Bid newsletter Website You can find us on LinkedIn. The opinions expressed are solely those of their authors. These opinions do not represent the views of News. News is bound by the Trust Principles to maintain integrity, independence and freedom from bias. (By Anna Szymanski.)
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Citi expects Brent crude to reach $60 by the end of the year as OPEC+ ramps production.
Citi analysts forecast Brent crude oil price to fall to $60 per barrel by the end of this year and average $62 between the second quarter and fourth quarters in 2026. They cited OPEC+ production increase and China's stockpiling. After OPEC+ announced that it would unwind an extra 1.6 million barrels of oil per day (mb/d), the bank revised its outlook for global liquids. This will begin in October 2025. Citi estimated that this could result in stock builds of up to 1.1 million barrels per day in 2025, and 2.1 million in 2026. This would add slack in an already loose global supply. Citi estimates that global liquids inventories will reach 10.9 billion barrels by the end of 2026. This is equivalent to 103 full days' supply. Citi attributed a 30% chance that Brent prices would fall below $60 per barrel - potentially as low as $50 - due to weaker global demand and faster growth of non OPEC supply. The bullish scenario with a probability of 10% could push Brent above $75 due to increased geopolitical instability. The global oil demand is projected to increase by 0.7 million barrels per day in 2025, and by 1 million in 2026. However, trade disputes may reduce diesel consumption by up to 0.3 million barrels per day. Citi has reaffirmed that it will target Brent at $60 per barrel for the next six to twelve months. Brent crude futures traded at $66.93 per barrel at 1024 GMT, while U.S. West Texas intermediate futures traded at $62.92. (Reporting from Anmol Choubey, Bengaluru. Editing by Kirby Donovan.
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Washington Post reports that US lawmakers are planning to introduce a bipartisan bill to eliminate coffee tariffs.
U.S. The Washington Post, citing an excerpt from the draft legislation, reported that Representatives Don Bacon, Ro Khanna, and others plan to introduce bipartisan legislation which would exempt coffee product tariffs after Jan. 19,2025. Report said that the exemption would be applicable to decaffeinated and roasted coffees as well as husks and skins of coffee and other drinks and substitutes containing caffeine. According to the report, Republican Bacon and Khanna (a Democrat) said that they chose coffee as a way to save money for Americans on a staple. Why are we taxing American citizens for something we don't grow? Bacon told the paper that it didn't make any sense. The White House, Bacon and Khanna did not respond immediately to comments. The price of coffee in the United States has been high ever since the Trump Administration imposed a 50% tariff at the end July on Brazilian imports, which included green coffee. The Intercontinental Exchange, New York, has seen the prices of arabica coffee, a milder variety used by coffee chains like Starbucks and Dunkin' Donuts have risen around 50%. Brazil used to provide a third all of the coffee consumed in the U.S. but since tariffs were implemented, shipments have dried out. (Reporting by Anusha Shah in Bengaluru; editing by Philippa Fletcher)
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European stocks rise as investors remain optimistic about rate cuts
The European stock market made a small gain on Friday. It is on track to make a modest advance for the week after the U.S. Federal Reserve cut rates. For the first time in December, the U.S. Federal Reserve lowered interest rates on Wednesday by a quarter percentage point. Norway and Canada cut rates as well. Wall Street closed Thursday at a new record, but in Asian trading Nikkei fell from its previous record after the Bank of Japan announced a further winding down of its stimulus policy. The MSCI World Equity Index was not much changed at 0923 GMT. The pan-European STOXX 600 index was up by 0.1% and London's FTSE 100 index was flat. Investors bet that the central bank's rate reductions will further boost stock prices. Amelie Derambure is the senior multi-assets portfolio manager at Amundi. She said: "For the coming weeks, we will continue to maintain a risk-on approach in our portfolios. We continue to overweight equities." Our stance is the market will continue to rise in the next few weeks with some volatility. The Fed did not endorse market expectations of a string of rate reductions, instead focusing on a meeting by meeting, data-dependent, approach. Analysts said that the Fed's tone and the diverse views of the central bank disappointed some investors who had hoped for a rapid change to lower interest rates. The markets are waiting to hear any news about a phone call between Chinese president Xi Jinping, and U.S. president Donald Trump. It is expected that the two will discuss the TikTok agreement and tariffs. After data revealed a rise in borrowing by the public sector, the British pound dropped 0.4% to $1.3504 and UK gilt yields increased. The Bank of England kept its rates unchanged on Thursday, but it slowed down the rate at which it unloaded the government bonds that it had purchased during previous crises. The U.S. Dollar index, which was up 0.2% to 97.509, is a little higher. The pair is now trading at 147.82. The yields on German 10-year government bonds rose to 2.7361% . Während shorter-dated bonds benefited from the expectation of rate reductions, longer-dated yields rose on investor concerns about government finances. The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) warned this week about the disconnect between record global share prices and signals on the bond markets that investors are worried about government debt. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury was 4.1255%. Oil prices fell as traders' concerns about fuel demand overshadowed the usual boost to oil prices that would come from a U.S. interest rate cut. Gold rose 0.4% to $3,656.4 and is on track for its fifth consecutive week of gains.
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Open Mineral is investigated by Switzerland for alleged sanctions against Russian gold deals
Two sources familiar with the matter have confirmed that Open Mineral, a Swiss metal trader, is under investigation by both the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs in Switzerland (SECO) as well as Zug Police for alleged dealings involving sanctioned Russian Gold. After the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Switzerland imposed sanctions on Russian gold in August 2022. These sanctions included gold. "We fully cooperate with the authorities, and we welcome this new development in the hope that it will accelerate the resolution." Open Mineral responded to a comment request by saying that business is continuing as usual. A spokesperson for SECO said that SECO and Zug Police conducted a search of a home in the canton Zug on September 11, The measure was taken in relation to an administrative criminal proceeding that SECO is currently conducting. "The proceeding targets two people as well as unknown persons," SECO media spokesperson stated. SECO refused to identify the two individuals, and said that the search had nothing to do with the investigation of Open Mineral. SECO stated that the investigation was based on potential violations of Article 9 Federal Act on Implementation of Sanctions International... in connection with the Ordinance on Measures Related to the Situation in Ukraine. The criminal law provides a legal basis to prosecute individuals or entities who violate Swiss sanctions laws, whether intentionally or negligently. SECO stated that it would not comment further on the current proceedings. All accused persons are presumed to be innocent until the legal proceedings are concluded.
Copper prices rise with signs of improved demand from China
Prices of copper rose on Friday, as signs of improved demand came from China's top metals consumer. Buyers are building up their inventories ahead of the long holiday.
The benchmark three-month copper price on the London Metal Exchange rose 0.4% to $9,975.50 per tonne by 0953 GMT.
Metal is down 2% from its 15-month-high of $10,192.50 on Monday as traders took profits after the U.S. Federal Reserve cut rates on Wednesday.
Yangshan Copper Premium
Consumers in China buy copper to restock in advance of the holiday. This year's public holiday runs from 1 October to 8 October and is usually a time when activity is muted.
Citi Research said that copper is expected to trade between $9.500 and $10.500 per ton during the fourth quarter, before rising to $12,000 by 2026. This is due to the possibility of a falling dollar and a rise in metal production not being enough to offset the higher demand.
The global market will be in deficit by 308,000 tons next year, compared to this year's surplus of 63,000 tons.
Aluminium, among other LME metals rose 0.3% to $2692.
The premium for the cash contract of aluminium over the three-month contract increased to $16 per ton on Tuesday. This was the highest level since March. Last time, the premium was $4 per ton.
Citi reported that "physical market conditions" (for aluminum) are broadly balanced at a global scale. Citi also predicted a fourth-quarter average price of $2,650.
LME zinc fell by 0.6%, to $2.897.50 per ton. Lead dropped 0.2%, to $2.002.50. Tin gained 0.4%, to $33,850. Nickel added 0.2%, to $15,295. (Reporting and editing by Harikrishnan Nair; Additional reporting by Dylan Duan, Amy Lv and Amy Lv)
(source: Reuters)