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Safe-haven Gold falls 2% as tensions between the US and China ease
Gold dropped 2% on Friday, reaching a low of about one month, after the U.S. China trade agreement increased risk appetite, and diminished gold's appeal as an asset that is a safe haven. Gold spot fell 2%, to $3.261.28 an ounce at 0934 am EDT (1334 GMT) - its lowest price since May 29. Bullion has fallen 3.2% for the second week in a row. U.S. Gold Futures fell 2.2% to $3.272.90. The slowdown in geopolitics is a great opportunity for investors, because they can start making money now. This is due to the prospect of a kinetic war between China and the Middle East. The markets viewed the agreement reached between the U.S.A. and China Thursday regarding the expedited shipment of rare earths to the U.S. as a positive development. Global shares rose after this. The ceasefire agreement in the Middle East between Iran and Israel has held up despite a few initial skirmishes. The data show that U.S. consumers' spending fell unexpectedly in May, as the benefit of pre-emptive purchases of motor vehicles before tariffs began to fade, and monthly inflation remained modest. After the data, traders increased their bets that the Federal Reserve would lower the short-term borrowing rates by 75 basis point in 2025. This is most likely to begin in September. Pavilonis said that the data doesn't move the needle in gold because it is experiencing a sell-off due geopolitics. Gold's non-yielding properties make it less attractive to investors in a stable geopolitical or economic environment. Spot silver fell 2%, to $35.88. It was expected to continue to decline for the rest of the week. Palladium dropped 0.8% to $1.122.77 but was on track for a weekly gain. Platinum fell 6.5% to $1.325.48, but was on track for a fourth straight weekly gain. (Reporting by Sarah Qureshi in Bengaluru; Editing by Shailesh Kuber)
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Nornickel, a Russian company, expects negative impact from trade wars and high interest rates
The Russian mining giant Nornickel announced on Friday that it expects to see its financial results deteriorate in this year due to low metals prices and high interest rates. It also cited the strong rouble, global trade wars, as well as high interest rate. Nornickel is the largest producer of palladium in the world and also a major producer for refined nickel. Nornickel does not fall under Western sanctions directed at Russia. The sanctions have led to payment problems, limited its access to Western equipment, and caused some Western producers not to buy Russian metal. The CFO of Nornickel, Sergey Malyshev, said that "this year, extreme geopolitical uncertainties, continued volatility in the target markets in the context of escalating global trade wars, and risks of a slower growth rate in the global economy, as well as tighter monetary policy are continuing to negatively impact the company's indicators." Malyshev said that the company also faces low metals prices as a result of the strengthening rouble this year and high inflation, in addition to its high debt service costs. The Bank of Russia’s key rate of 20% has been cited by government officials and business leaders as an important drag on the economy. This year, the economy is expected to be impacted dramatically. Malyshev stated that Nornickel was forced to reduce its investments and some projects were put on hold due to the difficult conditions. Last month, the company's board recommended that Nornickel not pay dividends on its 2024 results. Malyshev stated that it was not appropriate to pay dividends through an increase in debt. Nornickel Vice President Anton Berlin said to reporters that Nornickel expects a market balance in 2025 for palladium and a surplus of nickel. He stated that the auto sector, which is a major metal consumer, was still experiencing a crisis. Berlin accused Indonesia, the largest nickel producer in the world, of flooding the market with cheap nickel and harming other producers. Nornickel estimated earlier that around 40% of nickel producers were losing money at the current nickel price. Berlin stated that "we are experiencing an oversupply, which leads to price pressure because, unlike other regions, everything in Indonesia is organised in a more relaxed manner when it comes to mining." Berlin stated that Nornickel hoped that global trade disputes wouldn't impact its export volume and that it aims to sell all of the products that are produced. (Reporting Anastasia Lyrchikova, Writing by Alexander Marrow, Editing by Mark Trevelyan & Louise Heavens).
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Singapore's renewables use hits record highs as solar output and imports rise
An analysis of the most recent market data revealed that Singapore increased the share of renewables to a new record in May. The country accelerated its local solar power production and imported more renewable energy. Data from the National Electricity Market of Singapore revealed that domestic solar generation rose in May at its fastest rate since March 2024, and renewable imports increased for a third consecutive month, reaching their highest level in over two years. This boosted the share of renewables to 2,58% in the power mix of the city-state. The cross-border trade of power is seen as a key way to reduce regional dependence on fossil fuels, despite the growing demand for power from data centres. Singapore, Asia's second smallest country, has a limited renewable energy capacity. About 95% of Singapore's power capacity is generated by gas-fired plants. The data shows that Singapore imported clean energy of 122.7 million kilowatt hours in the five months up to May. This is 0.52% or the total amount of power generated. The data revealed that it did not import power in the same time period of last year and began importing only small quantities during the fourth quarter of 2024. In May, the share of imported power in Singapore's mix increased for a third consecutive month. This displaced some fossil fuels-fired generation. The data revealed that Singapore's electricity production grew by 0.4% in the first five month period. Singapore has two active cross-border power trade deals: the 200 MW Lao PDR-Thailand-Malaysia-Singapore (LTMS) and the 50 MW Energy Exchange Malaysia (ENEGEM) pilot project with Malaysia's state utility Tenaga Nasional Berhad. In October, the Singapore Energy Market Authority chief executive stated that the terms of an extended LTMS were still being finalised as Singapore waited for Thailand to finalise the details of transmission charges for multilateral deal. The EMA said in a Friday statement that "discussions are ongoing for future enhancements of the LTMS", without going into further detail.
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Andy Home: The extended export ban on cobalt does not resolve the Congo's Cobalt Dilemma
The Democratic Republic of Congo extended its export ban for cobalt three months, as the world’s largest producer of battery metals tries to turn its supply power into a pricing advantage. The price response has been muted this time after a sharp rise in February when the news of the initial ban caught the market by surprise. A certain extension was expected. The physical supply chain is so backed up with inventory that Congo's muscle-flexing does not seem to have fazed buyers. Investors are also not buying into a market turnaround imminent. Cobalt Holdings pulled out of its London Stock Exchange initial public offering earlier this month, where it planned to list an investment vehicle that would hold physical cobalt. Congo's dilemma with cobalt is to limit the supply of this metal, which is mined from copper and is an even greater revenue earner for this resource-rich nation. It would be better to concentrate on its own role within the supply chain. INVENTORY CUSHION The full impact of February's export ban has been delayed because it takes 90 days to ship Congo’s intermediate cobalt products to China for refinement. China's imports Congolese Cobalt were strong at more than 50,000 metric tonnes in both March andApril. The Chinese supply chain remains bloated due to years of consecutive market surplus. Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, a consultancy, estimates that cobalt stocks outside Congo were equivalent to 8-10 month's global consumption during the second quarter of 2018. BMI estimates that cobalt hydroxide in China won't be physically depleted until the end of the year, despite the extended export controls by China's biggest producer. Oversupply is a result of the shift in Chinese electric vehicle manufacturers' away from cobalt-based chemistry. According to an analysis of the Cobalt Institute by Shanghai Metal Market, the country's cobalt consumption by the battery sector decreased last year. Since DRC only halted exports, not production of intermediate cobalt is also piling in Congo. BY-PRODUCT BLUES Cobalt is a by-product, so Congo can't easily follow Indonesia, who has begun using mine quotas in order to limit the production of nickel, despite its inflated price. Mining restrictions imposed on Congo's producers of cobalt would have a negative impact on the production of copper. Copper is in high demand at present. London Metal Exchange Copper Price is at a high of close to $9900 per ton due to tight markets for raw materials and refined metal. Chinese operators, like CMOC Group in Congo, are motivated to continue digging up as much copper as possible. Cobalt is also free. Congo is the largest cobalt producer in the world, and CMOC the largest company. NO GOOD OPTIONS The government is considering a system of export quotas to help companies like CMOC and Glencore produce less cobalt while not losing their copper revenues. However, enforcing export quotas instead of the blanket ban would be difficult to implement and wouldn't address the stockpile that is accumulating within the country. A policy change could lead to a flood of Congolese cobalt, which would have a significant impact on the price. The Congolese Government is preparing for a long-term standoff with the market of cobalt and isn't even sure what price it targets. It is possible that if it sets its sights too high, it could accelerate the loss of cobalt’s market share in the battery industry. INDONESIAN LESSON Congo has learned that controlling the supply of cobalt and controlling the market price are very different things. This is especially true when the opposite end of the supply chain in China is thousands of miles from the Congo. One of the best ways to counter this is by linking exports with commitments to increase downstream processing capacity. Indonesia has used this linkage successfully in the nickel and copper sector, where this year two new smelters will be launched as a result ever-tighter controls on exports of copper concentrat. Congo's dominant position in the supply chain will allow it to decide where it is located within the supply chain, even though it may struggle to control the price of cobalt. This will not alone solve the overproduction of copper, but would result in more revenue per pound of metal extracted from the rich mineral resources of the country. These are the opinions of the columnist, who is also an author. (Editing by Barbara Lewis).
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In Pakistan, nine people have died as floodwaters sweep children and relatives away
Officials said that at least nine people were killed when floodwaters washed away children from a river in the north of Pakistan, and their relatives tried to save them by jumping into the water on Friday. District administrator Shehzad Mahaboob revealed that the family was enjoying a picnic by the Swat river and the children had been taking pictures in the water when the flood struck. He added that relatives rushed to help but were caught in the flood which was swollen from monsoon rainfall. Mahboob said it was too early to tell how many children or adults have died. He said that nine bodies had been recovered. Four family members were rescued and four others are still missing. Shahid Ali Khan, the local mayor, said that the family group was made up of tourists visiting Swat Valley from Pakistan. Rescue official Shah Fahad stated that locals and over 80 rescue workers are searching for survivors. Later, the Provincial Disaster Management Authority issued a warning that there was a high level of flooding and urged people to take preventative measures. Every year, during the summer, tens of thousands, mainly from other parts in Pakistan, travel to the peaks and the glaciers of the north. In a press release, the office of Prime Minister Shehbaz sharif said that Sharif had "expressed his sorrow over the deaths of tourists." (Reporting and writing by Mushtaq Al; editing by Andrew Heavens).
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Trump to issue executive orders to boost AI in race against China
Four sources familiar with planning say that the Trump administration is preparing a package of executive measures aimed at increasing energy supply in order to fuel the U.S.'s expansion of artificial intelligence. The two biggest economic rivals, the U.S.A. and China, are engaged in a technology arms race that has a military and economic edge. AI's massive data processing requires an increase in energy supplies, which is straining many utilities and grids. According to sources, the government is considering a number of measures, including making it easier to connect power-generating projects with the grid and providing federal land for the construction of data centers to advance AI technology. Sources who asked to remain anonymous to discuss internal discussions said that the administration would also release an AI Action Plan and schedule public events in order to bring public attention to these efforts. The White House has not responded to any requests for comments. The training of large-scale AI requires huge amounts of electricity. This is the reason for the first significant increase in U.S. energy demand in many decades. Grid Strategies, a consultancy in the power sector, predicts that between 2024 and 2030, U.S. electric demand will grow five times faster than it did in 2022. According to a report from Deloitte, the power consumption of AI data centers is expected to grow by more than 30 times by 2035. The problem of connecting and building new power plants to the grid is a big one. Such projects can require years-long impact studies, and the existing transmission infrastructure has become overloaded. Two sources stated that the administration was considering identifying more developed power projects, and moving them up the list of waiting for connections. It is also difficult to locate data centers because they require large facilities and resources. They can also face obstacles such as zoning or public opposition. Sources said that the executive orders may provide a solution by offering project developers land managed by either the Defense Department or Interior Department. According to one source, the administration is considering streamlining data center permitting by creating a national Clean Water Act permit rather than requiring businesses to apply for permits state-by-state. In January, Trump invited top tech CEOs to the White House in order to promote the Stargate Project. This multi-billion dollar effort is led by OpenAI's creator ChatGPT, SoftBank, and Oracle, and aims to build data centres and create over 100,000 jobs across the U.S. Trump prioritized winning AI's race against China, and declared a national emergency on his first official day. This was to remove all regulatory barriers to oil and natural gas drilling, coal mining and the critical mineral extraction, as well as building new nuclear and gas power plants in order to increase energy production. In January, he also directed his administration to develop an AI Action Plan to make America the "world capital of artificial intelligence" by reducing regulatory barriers and promoting its rapid growth. The report is due on July 23. Two sources say that the White House may declare July 23 as "AI Action Day", to bring attention to the report, and to demonstrate its commitment to growing the industry. Trump will speak on the 15th of July at a AI and Energy event hosted by Senator Dave McCormick in Pennsylvania. Amazon announced earlier this month that it would invest $20 Billion in data centers in Pennsylvania. (Reporting and editing by Richard Valdmanis, Margueritachoy and Valerie Volcovici)
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Chinese data shows that copper has fallen from its three-month high.
The copper price fell on Friday, from its three-month high after weak data out of China's top metals consumer and some profit taking. However, losses were minimal due to tight underlying conditions and high premiums. By 1000 GMT, the benchmark London Metal Exchange three-month copper fell 0.6% to $9,838 per kilogram after reaching $9,917 at its highest level since March 27. It was up by 2.7% this week. The data showed that China’s industrial profits fell sharply in May compared to a year ago, due to a slowdown in factory activity. Nitesh Sha, commodity strategist for WisdomTree, said that falling industrial profits are not good news for the industry in general. However, it does not translate directly into lower copper demand. The copper stories are still in full force, as we can see. Shah said that China has spent a lot on its grid. Citi stated in a report that it hit a new record in 2018 and increased by 19% during the first five months in 2025. The Shanghai Futures Exchange copper price rose by 1.5%, to 79.920 yuan (11,148.93 dollars), after hitting 80.060 yuan - its highest level since March 31. The copper price was up by 2% over the past week. The expectation that the United States would impose tariffs against copper imports has caused metal to be pulled into that country, causing shortages elsewhere. The data released on Friday shows that the inventories of warehouses monitored and controlled by ShFE Sliding 19% from the week before to 81.550 tons. This is a 70% drop over the last four months. LME copper stock has fallen 66% over the same period. This has sent premiums for contracts near LME copper to soar. The LME Cash Copper Contract Premium over the Three-Month Contract On Thursday, the price of a ton rose to $320, its highest level since November 2021. It was $101 on Wednesday. U.S. Comex Copper Futures dropped 1.3% to $5.06 per lb. This brings the premium of Comex to LME Copper to $1,321 per ton. Other metals include LME aluminium, which fell by 0.5% to 2,572 per ton. Zinc fell 0.6%, to $2.752, while lead dropped 0.32%, to $2.031.50. Nickel fell by 0.1%, to $15.195, and tin declined 0.6%, to $33,565. Click here to see the latest news in metals.
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Nornickel, a Russian metal, expects a negative impact from trade wars and high rates
The Russian mining giant Nornickel announced on Friday that it expects to see its financial results deteriorate in this year due to low metals prices and high interest rates. It also cited the strong rouble, global trade wars, as well as high interest rate. Nornickel is the largest producer of palladium in the world and also a major producer for refined nickel. Nornickel does not fall under Western sanctions directed at Russia. The sanctions have led to payment problems, limited its access to Western equipment, and caused some Western producers not to buy Russian metal. The CFO of Nornickel, Sergey Malyshev, said that "this year, extreme geopolitical uncertainties, continued volatility in the target markets in the context of escalating global trade wars, and risks of a slower growth rate in the global economy, as well tight monetary policies, continue to have a negative impact on financial indicators." Malyshev said that the company also faces low metals prices as a result of the strengthening rouble this year and high inflation, in addition to its debt and costs. The Bank of Russia’s key rate of 20% has been cited by government officials and business leaders as an important drag on the economy. This year, the economy is expected to be impacted dramatically. Malyshev stated that Nornickel was forced to reduce its investments and some projects were put on hold due to the difficult conditions. Last month, the company's board recommended that Nornickel not pay dividends based on its 2024 results. Malyshev stated that it was not appropriate to pay dividends through an increase in debt. (Reporting and writing by Anastasia Lyrchikova, Editing by Mark Trevelyan).
Iron ore gains the most in six weeks on declining inventories
Iron ore futures gained on Friday, posting the largest weekly gain since 16 May, on declining iron ore inventories and steel stocks, which outweighed Taiwan's antidumping duties.
The day-traded price of the most traded September iron ore contract at China's Dalian Commodity Exchange was 716.5 Yuan ($99.95) per metric ton.
This week the contract gained 1.64%, ending two weeks of consecutive losses.
As of 0801 GMT the benchmark July iron ore traded on Singapore Exchange was up 1.43% at $94.65 per ton, a gain of 1.11% for this week. This is a rally after five weeks of consecutive losses.
Analysts at ANZ said that falling iron ore inventories were a positive factor, protecting iron ore prices from a downward trend.
SteelHome data shows that the total stockpiles in China of iron ore fell by 0.74% on a weekly basis to 133.6 millions tons at the end of June.
Mysteel data shows that finished steel inventories held in China by traders continue to decline from June 20 through to 26. This is the seventh consecutive week of a decrease.
Mysteel said that the rate of fall was slower than the previous week, and this could be due to an increase in production at mills domestically.
The Mideast ceasefire has boosted investor sentiment, and China's stocks are on track to post their largest weekly gains in over seven months.
China's industrial profit is still growing
swung back
In May, profits at industrial firms in China fell sharply compared to a year ago, due to a combination of a price war between automakers and a sluggish demand domestically.
Taiwan will impose anti-dumping tariffs as high as 20,15% on Chinese hot-rolled steel beginning July 3.
Coking coal and coke both rose by 4.89% and 2.52 %, respectively.
The benchmarks for steel on the Shanghai Futures Exchange have largely gained ground. Rebar, hot-rolled coil and wire rod all gained around 1%. Stainless steel dropped 0.04%. ($1 = 7.1685 Chinese yuan). (Reporting and editing by Janane Venkatraman, Harikrishnan Nair and Lucas Liew)
(source: Reuters)